MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 27 2010 10:40 PM |
Alex Headed Toward Mexico
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10:00 PM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Based on Recon Data and media mentions, Alex will be upgraded to Hurricane Status at 11PM tonight. This is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995 (Allison), which was also the first hurricane to ever be tracked on flhurricane.
6:00 PM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Alex has yet to reach hurricane strength, but still may do so tonight. It is moving more rapidly to the northwest and west northwest tonight, and may reach the coast of Mexico tomorrow night.
Hurricane Warnings still reach into South Texas around Baffin Bay, and effects from the storm will certainly be felt there, mostly rain and some storm surge. The landfall point in Mexico is where most of the impact will be felt. For those asking about the impact on the oil spill, the waves kicked up will likely move the oil around a bit and possibly cause oil to wash up on beaches further east where it hasn't yet, but it is difficult to tell.
{{StormLinks|Alex|01|1|2010|1|Alex}}
Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
Webcams:
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
7:00 AM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Tropical Storm Alex is just shy of hurricane strength, but is still trying to wrap in convection along the northwestern side of the storm, keeping it from intensifying all that quickly. The storm is still projected to make landfall south of the Texas/Mexico border.
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings have not changed since last night. Hurricane Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up north of Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor, TX.
Those in the Hurricane Warning area should use today to prepare for tomorrow night. There is a possibility warning areas may expand as well.
The system is about to run into a strong ridge that will likely force it hard west, this morning it has picked up a little speed and is moving north northwest, a more westerly turn is expected today.
Landfall is still expected south of the Texas/Mexico border.
{{StormLinks|Alex|01|1|2010|1|Alex}}
Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
Webcams:
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
10:45 PM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up north of Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor, TX.
The system has a pressure of 985mb, which could indicate that the storm is on it's way to hurricane status and may be so sometime tomorrow.
The current project landfall takes Alex just south of the Texas/Mexico border as a hurricane, bringing plenty of rain, wind, and storm surge to the area as it approaches and moves relatively slowly. For storm surge, the highest will be at and immediately north of the storm. For rain, most of the Rio Grande valley has the potential to see flooding rains, and winds depends on just how strong the storm gets before landfall.
Those in the Hurricane Warning Area need to prepare tomorrow and Wednesday and listen to local officials and media for any evacuation orders. The current forecasted timing puts conditions deteriorating in the warning area Wednesday afternoon and overnight.
Most of the models have converged in the warning area and may flip flop north and south of the border tomorrow.
4:30 PM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Baffin Bay, TX northward to Port O'Connor, TX (Roughly midway between Corpus Christi and Galveston), in addition to the Hurricane Watches that are up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz, Mexico.
Alex is expected to strengthen more tomorrow once it shakes the dry air and shear it currently is facing. The general thought of landfall in Mexico still has not changed, although the strong side of the storm may reach into South Texas.
The hurricane center may issue Hurricane Warnings for parts of the Hurricane Watch Area later tonight.
Those in the Hurricane Watch area should be starting preparations soon, and note there is a lot of rain potentially with Alex that could cause flooding problems around the Rio Grande valley even if it were to landfall south of the border.
11 AM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Hurricane Watches up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz, Mexico, as Tropical Storm Alex slowly strengthens.
Those in the watch area, Including Brownsville and South Padre Island, need to start preparations for possible hurricane conditions arriving on Thursday (early).
Landfall is currently most likely just south of the border, perhaps bringing the strong side of the storm into Brownsville. The Euro forecast model (EMWCF) suggests the system may slow down or stall right around the time of landfall.
Those in the cone of uncertainty (now including Corpus Christi) will need to watch the progress of Alex as well.
6:30 AM Update 28 June 2010
Not too much new with Alex this morning, a slow moving system that will likely strengthen slowly, and could rapid intensify really at any time, but it looks like it won't be today. There is a shot of dry air coming in from the northwest and higher than forecast shear that will likely keep strengthening on the slow side today, but otherwise conditions are favorable for strengthening. Alex may become a hurricane tomorrow.
Track wise the situation is more complex, still leaning toward eventually west in Mexico Thursday, but the slow movement is going to stay for today, waiting until Alex reacts or not to a weakness in the ridge.
It really boils down to, the stronger Alex gets the more likely it will head north, but if it remains a tropical storm longer the more likely it is to go further left (and south). As well as how much the ridge to the north develops.
Recon is approaching Alex now, and hopefully will have some good data in a few hours.
* Because of this, preparations wise, anyone in the Cone needs to watch and be prepared for the possibility of a hurricane heading your way late this week. If watches and especially warnings are issued in your area later this week start to take that plan into action. Watches may come as soon as tonight.
{{StormLinks|Alex|01|1|2010|1|Alex}}
Original Update
Tropical Storm Alex has regained some strength back over water and is now a Tropical Storm Again, with a pressure of 991 mb, low, but not relatively so to the surrounding area.
It has slowed down a great deal, the average speed of 7mph is probably less by now, even closer to stationary.
The general thought for the track is that it meanders gradually west and northwest. The models taking it further north appear to be outliers and the general track toward the Mexican coastline around Thursday is the current official track, and the confidence is a bit higher than earlier in the day. The track would take it midway between Tampico and the Texas/Mexico border. However all those in the forecast cone should watch Alex closely.
Intensity is the real question, it may take time for Alex to regain strength since it's so large, but it has a good head start. Conditions are good for a gradual intensification, if the core catches hold it may burst later, but some of the intensity models aren't suggesting it. It may gain strength earlier than projected. A stronger storm would allow it to nudge more northward, staying relatively weaker would probably indicate more westward, but still the general Northwest to West movement is what is expected.
So far it looks like Alex is on it's way to be stronger by the morning.
Belize Radar Recording (Flhurricane)
Belize City Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
San Pedro Belize Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
Weather at Belize City
Weather at Campeche, Mexico
Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
Weather at Poza Rica, Mexico
Weather at Tampico, Mexico
Flhurricane Facebook page
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 27 2010 11:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Since a few asked, yes cfhc is firmly in the "western" camp for the models. ECMWF (Euro) has been doing well with this one so far, and all the models moving the system more north have been consistently too far north throughout 93L's transition to a tropical Storm. We are watching for changes closely, but until the trend changes I doubt that assumption will change.
Now that Alex is getting really slow and may popping up in strength the real intense watching begins, but the overall thinking remains generally toward the west.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jun 27 2010 11:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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recon just circled in the coc, coming in from the NW and heading back out to the NW... data shows pressure the same 991mb.. maybe 1mb lower... but center fix did move to near
Time: 02:54:30Z Coordinates: 19.2333N 91.2167W.... so that would be NW of last center fix... waiting on GPS dropsonde now.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jun 27 2010 11:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Looking at the latest model run. Residents from Brownsville,TX to Lake Charles/ Cameron,LA are under the model tracks. Extremely wide margin of error.
Also included is the Mexico Coast from Merida to Tampico is in the Cone of (Un)Certainty.
This storm is so large I'd bet it's generating swells on the Pacific Coast of Southern Mexico.
Lightning beginning to increase in the overland areas.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 12:03 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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From the latest VORTEX remarks section.
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the north quadrant at 1:39:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Using Google Earth this location is just over 75 miles north of the center. Over water but still a strong wind.
It could be due to the winds running up over the water after passing over the Yucatan Peninsula. There were two measurements near the same speed adjacent to each other.
Once the Center moves completely over the BOC Alex could generate some rather long swells in the GOM.
Present position is roughly 700 miles SSW of the Oil Spill.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 12:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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can darby influence the direction of alex?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 07:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Alex had some effect on Darby over the weekend, but not too much the other way around.
The hurricane center put the word in the discussion this morning that they are thinking up placing watches up tonight, so those in the Cone Area may want to think about it.
Really stronger system means further north, weaker system likely further west/south.
The structure took a shock overnight and the dry air and shear look to be keeping Alex in check today at least. Alex will strengthen, but slowly today.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:10 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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What is the probability of this storm getting further north, and when would we know if this could happen. I live in Houston, tx.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Quote:
What is the probability of this storm getting further north, and when would we know if this could happen. I live in Houston, tx.
Roughly 7%, it gets much higher the further south you go, highest is in Mexico around San Fernando at about 43%. In short very doubtful you will have much to deal with in Alex as far as Landfall goes.
Current model trends are shifting toward the north, but have also continued to fall to the right of where the storm actually has gone.
If you were to base it solely on the models right now, Brownsville would be the middle of it, with plenty on either side. Trends on the storm overall would suggest further south, and of course the official hurricane forecast is still toward the south.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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I keep hearing the stronger the storm the farther north it would go. What do you think about that quote. How strong and how much further north could it get.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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NHC seems to be sticking to their models that Alex will stay to the left side of the cone.
I did see the following in the latest Discussion:
THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.
I would probably start to look at the possibility of Hurricane Conditions along the whole Texas Coastline this week... by Friday. Based on the last 24 hours of models shifting slighty to the north every 6 hours. And Alex being forecast to make 90 knots or 100 mph. Wind field is probably going to be large due to the size of the storm and pressure gradients. Alex has a large satellite signature at this time and I don't see a lot of reason for the size to shrink.
Check the Windspeed probablilities at NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or at
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT1
Note... they change every 6 hours. Houston's present cumulative 13% probability of Tropical Storm force winds, thru Midnight Friday night, could go up or down 6 hours from now.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Good Morning!
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...p;ft=0&sl=0
The above has the right strength, IMHO-a Cat 2 strong as it hits land.
90+% of the models have Alex hugging the coast as it turns and moves up E Texas
coming w/in 150 miles of DFW Int'l. Even if Alex follows the NHC track there will be major
flooding Brownsville N as the Cat 2 Storm weakens/blow up with it's turn North.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark1latest.png
Clark's Models have Alex now at the Eastern side of it's same Models as of
24 hrs ago.
Those Models have it stalling/moving N of Corpus Christi Wednesday PM. Houston
will get at least 6-10 in. Think TS Allison:
Effects of Tropical Storm Allison in Texas - Wikipedia, the free ...
Tropical Storm Allison was a major flood disaster throughout its path from Texas ... In the Port of Houston, a total of 36.99 inches (940 mm) was reported. .... [22] Thirty-five volunteer services provided aid for the flood victims in ...
en.wikipedia.org/.../Effects_of_Tropical_Storm_Allison_in_Texas -
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:52 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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000
URNT12 KNHC 281152
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 28/11:32:20Z
B. 20 deg 02 min N
091 deg 33 min W
C. 925 mb 593 m
D. 46 kt
E. 063 deg 14 nm
F. 131 deg 57 kt
G. 053 deg 24 nm
H. EXTRAP 989 mb
I. 20 C / 761 m
J. 23 C / 707 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0501A ALEX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 11:23:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
GOOD SPIRAL BAND EAST SIDE OF CENTER FIX
;
Pressure is down a bit, which explains the slight increase in MAX WINDS. Spiral banding is not a good sign this close to land. I don't see any other changes in the VORTEX since 12 hours ago.
This system has a tenacious vortex in the center as it has remained at low levels of intensity since leaving the African Coast. Evidenced by the formation of an eye yesterday morning over land. See yesterday's thread for images.
Another mention of Tropical Storm Allison. Alex gives me a bad feeling.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 09:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Best track has Alex around 50knots (Ie 55-60mph), Alex will probably continue to slowly strengthen today, if it shakes land interaction, shear, and the dry air it has a shot for rapid intensification tomorrow.
| 5m0k3 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:23 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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I can't help but think Google Wave would be a perfect platform for discussing tropical activity:
https://wave.google.com/wave/waveref/wellsb.com/w+A8iP5_e3A
http://wellsb.com/post/738067595/hurricane-watches-up-for-alex
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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10 am CDT update is out, track shifted right again. This is going to be a crappy 4th of July for South Texas!!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Hurricane watch from Baffin Bay South to the border has been issued by NHC. Also in Mexico
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 11:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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I added several Brownsville related links to the main page, and will be tracking it closely for Brownsville.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 11:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Alex is getting the impact of the shear, upper level low, and dry air from Texas now, and may hold or weaken a bit from the looks of it. Pressure on recon is already up some.
Tomorrow it will likely recover from this.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 01:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Is that some type of weird anomaly I hope that the Noon GFDL is picking up off the west coast of Florida in four days?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 02:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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I saw that, too. Some models have suggested leftover energy from Alex going into the NE Gulf. Need to see if the pattern holds on subsequent models. Don't put too much credibility into just one run.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 03:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Quote:
Is that some type of weird anomaly I hope that the Noon GFDL is picking up off the west coast of Florida in four days?
That feature is not related to Tropical Storm Alex. It is a piece of energy that will be cutoff from the longwave trough over the Northeastern US that is stranded between the Mid-Continental Upper Ridge and Bermuda Ridge. Take care!
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 03:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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1pm shows no movement from the 10am. Exact same set of coordinates and my eye seems to agree in looking at the satellite loops. 5mph movement is just their 12 hour average again. It seems to me that if the system stays slower with its forward movement there is more of a chance of the system getting further north. The ridge that is supposed to build in on Tuesday to turn the system back to the west, moves out almost as quickly as it arrives. This is turning into a "timing" game for South Texas.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
The buoy 42055 linked above is fairly close to the center of alex, a little due west of it. The pressure has started dropping some and the wind speed has increased from about 10 knots at 10 am this morning to 24.7 knots at 1:40 pm.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 03:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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actually the longer it sits in the BOC the further south Alex will go. Ridging start digging down late Tuesday into Weds that will turn Alex west. 23N 24N or 25N before the turn? Probably be about 200 miles south of the Tx border.
NE GOM looks interesting for the end of this week. That midlevel energy has to go somewhere. Thats a wait and see evolution..
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 03:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Quote:
actually the longer it sits in the BOC the further south Alex will go. Ridging start digging down late Tuesday into Weds that will turn Alex west. 23N 24N or 25N before the turn? Probably be about 200 miles south of the Tx border.
NE GOM looks interesting for the end of this week. That midlevel energy has to go somewhere. Thats a wait and see evolution..
agreed on the timing of it digging in, but looking at the GFS, for example, it seems like the ridging gets weaker about the time that Alex makes landfall. If Alex takes 12-24 hours longer to get to land, then it would seem it would have a chance to go further north before making landfall.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 03:46 PM |
| Attachment |
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500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z
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One of the most important tools in a weather forecaster's arsenal is the 500 millibar (18,000 feet) Upper Air Analysis with Temperatures, Wind Direction & Speed, Heights in decameters, decamter difference from previous chart (12 hours ago) and dew point depression. I'll try and post the chart here; however if unsuccessful follow this link and print the chart yourself - http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/QHTA11.TIF Replace "11" with "17" and that is the 700 millibar chart (10,000 feet).
A closer re-analysis of the chart reveals the longwave trough axis extending from the Hudson Bay southward through Wisconsin/Michigan through Iowa/Illinois through Missouri, Oklahoma/Arkansas possibly cutting off over Oklahoma/Texas and continuing as a trough through Central Texas. An inverted trough possibly cutoff extending south and southeast is Alex's circulation being reflected at 500 millibars. The entire area from the South Central US extending eastward to Alabama and Western Florida had 10 decameter height falls to the longwave troughs east and 10 to 20 decameters to the west of the longwave axis...this is indicative of a progressive (moving) east. Greatest height falls are north and east over the North Central and Northeast US as expected this time of year. For those of choose to print this chart, I analyzed the 585 and 587 heights and this will reveal the trough over Texas. I also re-analyzed the 588 height and drew it through Slideall/New Orleans, LA depicting the Bermuda ridge axis.
So what does this all mean you ask....it explains Alex's northward movement which is being steered by the longwave trough's current location.
Alex's intensity is reflected by the UW-CIMMS wind shear analysis. Alex is experiencing 15 knots of NW shear and will likely continue to experience this until the trough goes by and lifts out to the Northeast.
As of 1930Z this is the worse I've seen Alex on satellite and closer examination reveals Alex is moving N to NNW. There is some evidence on water vapor of that Alex is not vertically straight up but tilted slightly.
What troubles me is the position of the Mid-Continental and Bermuda ridges in a few days and an area of weakness; a COL (the intersection of two ridges and/or two troughs and/or all four) and today that's TX/LA border.
Those who are speculating in about 4 days the low off West FL is a piece of the trough that becomes cutoff. If it persists, it may bear watching but it's not related to Alex.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 04:05 PM |
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Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z
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well said! Alex will be a hurricane and landfall is getting pretty straight forward...but strength is the main unknown now. Although the exact path isnt known, 23N-26N is the best bet. I'm down around 23.5-24N Weds night or early Thurs.
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 06:21 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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18z run for the GFS is out and has moved back up a little more north. Looks like a little south of Corpus Christi. It's hard to tell though the exact location. It will be interesting to see the rest of the 18z models. This stuff just keeps bouncing all over the place!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Alex isn't looking good on most of the satellite imagery, with the notable exception of visible. And the stationary behavior may be starting to give way to some more movement now.
Either way you look at it, tomorrow will be a long day, but a good day to get preparations done before the rush on Wednesday if you are in the watch/warning area.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:11 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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I kinda disagree... it appears to me that Alex is starting a rapid intensification stage... New Hot towers near center have me worried... the outflow from these storms is killing the shear that was to the west and northwest of the coc... It apppeared early we may have seen an eye like feature or the coc of Alex peak out... see attached... if Alex can fill in the NW side of COC where the drier air is at... in about 6hrs or so... will know if these Hot towers caused a strengthing stage or not...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT1/animvis.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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PS: I never seen the G-IV fly so close to center of a Tropical storm before... they flew over the eastern side of COC about hour ago... around 45Kft above the storm... I think thats a history flight.... AF Recon is coming into COC from the NW now... but the G-IV... way to go! Thats gotta be a first for Gonzo!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Quote:
I kinda disagree... it appears to me that Alex is starting a rapid intensification stage... New Hot towers near center have me worried... the outflow from these storms is killing the shear that was to the west and northwest of the coc... It apppeared early we may have seen an eye like feature or the coc of Alex peak out... see attached... if Alex can fill in the NW side of COC where the drier air is at... in about 6hrs or so... will know if these Hot towers caused a strengthing stage or not...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT1/animvis.html
Oh absolutely, it's just that lack of cold convection on the northwest side of the core that's making it look a mess on IR, but at the same time you can see it attempting to wrap it in there quite vigorously. I think tomorrow it's going to take off, if it can get far enough offshore anyway.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:34 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Yeah the two feeder bands that were to the north and northeast of center.. plus 100 miles, spun out to the NW very strongly... and i think covection on the NW side of coc is wrapping around now... is this a trend or just a pulse... we will have to keep watching. attached is GPS dropsonde GE plot...
**note** red line is not the flight path... but a general indication between each drop...
PS: there is three planes working Alex right now... G-IV is north of center now... 200 miles... NOAA 42RF is NE of Center doing a research mission (100 miles)... AR Recon 304 is in center now... VERY Busy traffic! lol
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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See signs that pressure may be a few MB lower then the 8pm Adv.... we want know until AF Recon 304 drops a GPS dropsonde, which should be happening right now.... should take about 10+ mins to get data... but seeing 987mb numbers
UPDATE: appears flight level center is NNE of 18z data... near
Time:00:36:00Z Coordinates: 20.75N 91.55W
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Well its official... GPS Dropsonde shows pressure dropping!
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 0:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°44'N 91°34'W (20.7333N 91.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 91 miles (147 km) to the NW (312°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 571m (1,873ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 46kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (282°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg) - Extrapolated
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM |
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Re: this is a huge storm
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Same 91.6 as 5 am, but 70 miles due north.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: this is a huge storm
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using flightaware.com... i found NOAA49 south of Apalachicola about 15 mins ago...
cool part is they were about 5-7k ft about airliner traffic heading west! Been pretty cool to look out the left side of the plane and see a Gonzo pass by... within 10 miles of flight! (most planes are leaving Florida heading to either LAS or LAX)see attachment!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:16 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Looks like some of the models have trended north again. The GFS and HWRF are more north than last run. Recon is also reporting 65knot winds at flight level. Pressure 985.3
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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also the last pass also showing signs of another 2mb drop to around 985mb... and a NNE fix from last pass. Dropsonde data should be out in a few... 49 and 42RF have returned to McDill AFB per flightaware
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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There looks like a big blowup right over the area with the lowest pressure. New Vortex at 985, also the Temperature difference inside eye and outside eye has increased 2 degrees C (now 4 was 2)...also dew point is up from 18c to 22c. Does this mean its pulling in more heat?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Looks like alex is in a strengthening stage... how long it will last? i think a few more hours then prolly a hold over night... then tmrw the setup looks ideal~
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 02:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 2:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°52'N 91°33'W (20.8667N 91.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 97 miles (156 km) to the NW (317°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 556m (1,824ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 68kts (From the SSE at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 756m (2,480ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:59:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Also max flight level winds 68kts
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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okay quys what is your best quess on where alex will wind up?
(Go back and read the purpose of this site - and pay attention to the guidance from the National Hurricane Center. )
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 10:45 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Here come the Changes!
0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.............
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 91.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 11:24 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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The burst up in the satellite image is similar looking to what happened to Alex before landfall in Belize, it's fairly likely we'll wake up to a Hurricane in the morning.
The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet that was flying around today took measurements all over the gulf that hopefully will feed into the models tomorrow.
Some types of Evacuation orders for South Padre Island already exist.
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 12:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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its amazing how quickly Alex regained convection, looks like he's pullingair from the Pacific ocean and Central America.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 01:17 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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A reminder...this site is NOT to be used as official information.
There are many qualified individuals that post here, however, we all need to pay attention to the official NHC forecasts.
edited: see Note at the bottom of the page.
| Fairhopian |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 02:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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The NHC discussion mentions that, even though Alex's movement has been to the north for the past several hours, the forecast track still shows a gradual bend to the west due to a mid-level ridge building from the north. When does this storm cross the threshhold into creating its own environment? Is 600 miles in every direction from its center not enough? Also, why does the GFDL not bring this storm to hurricane strength at any point despite the abated sheer above and warm, warm water below?
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 03:11 AM |
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Alex will become a hurricane.
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It´s already very close to hurricane status. The last recon pass showed 73 kt FL winds in the NE quadrant.
It isnßt believable, that there won´t be any development in the next two days. On the other hand it doesn´t look like as phases of rapid intensification are very likely. So the NHC scenario should be really the best bet. Lets´s see.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 07:10 AM |
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Re: Alex will become a hurricane.
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Some energy is being "Spit off" to the north, while the core of the system remains far south, the northwest quadrant is in bad shape compared to the rest of the system.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 08:13 AM |
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Re: Alex will become a hurricane.
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Not too much new other than a lower pressure at 8AM. There are more signs a movement toward the northwest have begun, however.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 08:22 AM |
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Re: Alex will become a hurricane.
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I disagree with Alex undergoing rapid intensification. There is no evidence on satellite imagery to believe Alex is going to "bomb out" today and undergo rapid intensification.
1. It is a huge system.
2. There is no complete inner core
3. Piece of long wave trough has broken off over TX with small upper lows over TXOK and NM has depicted on water vapor imagery.
4. Winds aloft over TX are from the SW and over LA from the N as depicted on water vapor.
5. Upper low over the Hudson Bay continues to dig and sink southward pinching the Bermuda Ridge south with axises over the entire Gulf coast and to the south over the FL peninsula with flow there from the N to the S
6. Upper low off the east coast of FL
7. Alex is elongated from North to South; shear is about 10 knots N to S
8. Flow over TX being SW to NE and over Alex N to S is indicative of either a bubble high between TX and Alex or an extension of the Bermuda High between the two ever so narrow.
9. Discussion out of Slidell, LA talks about an inverted trough over the state...Two schools of thought...one's Alex and the other is the trough over TX and a piece of shortwave energy is rotating inverted around it, albeit weak.
Conclusion....Alex will become a hurricane; pressure is indicative it should be, but too many negative factors for rapid intensification...
Now...watch me be wrong....Waiting on the 29/12Z Upper Air package!
Y'all have a nice day...
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 08:26 AM |
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Re: Alex will become a hurricane.
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Latest vortex message....
000
URNT12 KNHC 291153
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/11:29:00Z
B. 22 deg 22 min N
092 deg 37 min W
C. 850 mb 1276 m
D. 57 kt
E. 087 deg 19 nm
F. 145 deg 70 kt
G. 063 deg 68 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 11:05:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 089 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
RADAR SHOWS PARTIAL EYEWALL NE AND MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 09:07 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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That's what I've been wondering.
I've followed the models/sat's and watched and watched since coming ashore
N of Belize that the NHC has been throwing Alex into Mexico.
With some saying it would not get into the BOC.
Meanwhile since emerging into the BOC it's XTRP(Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog .... XTRP is the extrapolated movement, or the track the storm would take if it didnt change direction or speed. ...)
has gone from W to NW to NNW (with nothing but outlier models
predicting this Sun PM.
As the Models continue, as Alex has moved another 250-300 miles to the North,
with outflow now to be seen in the NW quadrant, to throw Alex now almost due W...
CLIPER5( and LBAR the only outliers following the XTRP) is a statistical track model originally developed in 1972 and extended to provide forecasts out to 120 h (5 days) in 1998. As the name implies, the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence. It employs a multiple regression technique that estimates the relationships between several parameters of the active TC to a historic record of TC behavior to predict the track of the active TC. The inputs to the CLIPER5 include the current and past movement of the TC during the previous 12_ and 24_hour periods, the direction of its motion, its current latitude and longitude, date, and initial intensity. CLIPER5 is now used primarily as a benchmark for evaluating the forecast skill of other models and the official NHC forecast, rather than as a forecast aid.
Something has got to happen in the next 6 hours. Alex has got to stall, then turn
or get ripped apart by whatever is going to be throwing it into Mexico S of Texas.
IMHO
like the NHC track still has it.
The Curious Incident of the Hurricane Dynamical Models One thing that strikes me(Dr. Rob Carver substituting for jeff@ Wunderblog as odd about Alex is that neither the GFDL nor the HWRF have been intensifying the storm into a hurricane in the past few model runs. This is intriguing because Alex is already a strong tropical storm(70mph now). It will bear watching to see if GFDL/HWRF continue this pattern for future storms.
Alex is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today... followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph... with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours... and Alex is likely to become a hurricane later today.
So shoot me. I don't know, eh. ;}
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 09:34 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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An impressive thing, (at least for me) is the area of precipitation that Alex is spinning off. Yesterday morning we had some good sized thunderstorms go through the area. Intense ground to cloud lightning, and an almost constant rumble of thunder.
This morning so far we have had a good 15 minutes or so of a tropical downpour. Plus radar is showing more on the way.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 10:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Hard to tell definitely yet (more tme will be needed) but the motion may be more wnw now. If so the area immediately south of Texas would be the most likely point of land fall.
Watching the ULL east of florida as it continues to retrograded wsw toward the state. Not much low level development there, but certainly has moist environment captive. Some evidence of a lower level circuation in the visible.
|
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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To answer a few questions:
The thought that a hurricane can get strong enough to change its surrounding environment to the extent that the changed environment can alter the track (or intensity) of the hurricane is now considered to be a myth by most tropical meteorologists - at least as far as the 'track change' capability goes. For intensity, a strong storm generates a stronger anticyclone aloft (because of the outflow) so a minor environmental increase in intensity is possible (with ocean heat content as the primary driver for intensification - or decay). In rare cases a Cat V Hurricane may seem to alter the environment, but in order for a tropical cyclone to attain Cat V, the environment cannot be hostile to begin with.
Now for the models. For the last couple of days, NHC has consistently stated in the Discussion bulletin that the east coast trough that cause a northward drift of Alex (and created shear that hindered the intensification process) would lift out to the north and east and that the western extention of the Atlantic ridge would redevelop over the northern Gulf of Mexico and curve Alex off to the northwest and eventually west northwest as that redevelopment occured. That process started last night and will continue today, tonight and tomorrow. There is nothing magical or complex about it - it is a very simple meteorological process. The models react based upon the data that is available for any given model run - and since that data varies, so does the model outputs from run-to-run. The models are guidance in determining the forecast, but they are not the forecast itself . NHC missed the last 24 hour forecast point for 29/12Z by about 25 miles - not too shabby at all.
The intensity models are also just guidance - and they are the least developed of the tropical forecasting tools - so they are often in error and NHC knows this.
Generally speaking, Alex is doing what NHC said it would do.
ED
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 11:25 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Looks to me like an eye wall is just about closed off. I think when it does there will be some substantial deepening as the water heat content increases
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 03:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
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Yeah, the storm is looking much healthier this afternoon on Satellite. Rainbow IR shows that the entire center is pretty much wrapped up in convection. The western side of the storm is still pretty dry on convection, but apart from that, I wouldn't be suprised to see Alex upgraded to hurricane status next advisory.
EDIT: Eyewall shows up pretty well on current Water V. images.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 04:53 PM |
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Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Tell me if y'all think the center of Alex has made a sharp left turn and is now moving W to WNW in the past few hours. Alex likely to be hurricane at 11 pm ET...next package. Thanks!
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 04:58 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Ya, it looks like according this this sat. imagery that Alex may of just wrapped up on the western side of the Core.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
Look at the last frame
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 05:09 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Looks like Alex is behaving as predicted, and the majority of the movement is west, with a slde to the north. The speed is faster than originally predicted, and strengthening into a Cat II looks less likely. Probably minimal Cat I at land fall which looks likely on Wednesday
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 05:26 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Last night I thought we'd have hurricane Alex in the morning, but we didn't get it. We still don't have it. The NHC is right on top of it, and has gotten the intensity right since Alex exited the Yucatan.
It seems to me though that Alex is tracking urther south than they had predicted, and is picking up speed and racing WNW at a nice clip.
It's looking better, but it still seems to have a lot of dry air mixed in with the individual spiral bands.
I suspect Alex will reach cane status tonite as predicted.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Been observing more on the steering layers for the storm. It seems like the stronger Alex gets, the more north he can pull. Just for an example, look at this map Steering Layers for 940 mlb. or lower . If Alex was a category 4 or 5 with pressure of 940 mlb. it would steer to just about south of Galveston. The map shows a much weaker ridge. However, the weaker Alex is, the more west it goes Steering Layers for 990-970 mlb. . NHC has Alex becoming a category 1 storm at landfall, which is reasonable because of the dry air that has been inhibiting it. However, I'm looking at a category 2 Hurricane at landfall, same thing happened with Dolly in 2008. Landfall either at or south of the Mexican border, which was my first forecast but after the models went north, and as the trough looked stronger, I veered it north, but I'm starting to see a WNW movement with Alex, of course recon will have the best information. My best guess is that Alex is a Category 1 storm with 75-80 mph by 11 p.m. since recon won't be at the center till after the 8 p.m. advisory which has no change in strength. If this doesn't belong here please let me know, it's been a long time since I used this site, grown more in my knowledge of weather over the years.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 08:47 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Recon is finding an astounding pressure of 973 mlb. (pressure of a category 2-3 storm). I would watch Alex closely tonight for the winds to slowly drive up. I also got this from the Running Best TRack
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU , 64, NEQ
It appears we have our first Hurricane of the season!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 09:20 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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I've been searching the recon and have seen no winds at the surface above 65kts...which seems very wrong with a pressure that low
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 09:58 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Alex appears to be slowing down again, and attempting another run at getting over the hurricane hump. Those in the Warning area in Texas shouldn't let their guard down.
Note: It WILL be upgraded at 11.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 10:04 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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Alex is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995 (Allison), which was also the first hurricane to ever be tracked on flhurricane.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 29 2010 10:21 PM |
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Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
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With a pressure that low...I dont see how they couldn't upgrade it. I've seen Cat2's with higher pressure