MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Oct 23 2012 07:10 PM |
|
Hurricane Sandy Moving North of the Bahamas, Weaker for Now
|
7:30PM EDT 26 Oct 2012 Update
This is the period of wait and see now, as it weakens and gets sheared, along with dry air to the south. This is before the full baroclinic conversion takes place (when it will likely deepen again) is going to be a lot of wait and see. The pressure may fall even while the storm dries out.
For those in the Northeast, be prepared for outages, especially in the coastal areas (But likely fairly far inland). There are quite a few unknowns with this system since there have been so few in history to take a path and conversion like Sandy is forecast to. So the reaction from the weather offices and media in the northeast is quite warranted.
Folks from the east Carolinas through Maine need to pay close attention as the wind field for Sandy (or whatever it becomes) will cover a vast area. Storm surge along parts of the coast will be extreme.
How are Sandy related conditions in your area? Let us know here!
6:30AM EDT 26 Oct 2012 Update
Hurricane Sandy is being affected somewhat by shear, but the wind field of the system is also continuing to expand.
The system has moved northwest overnight around 13mph, and may continue a bit further northwest (while slowing down) before curving more northeast picking up some speed, and then eventually slowing abruptly hooking back west somewhere in the Mid Atlantic (Delmarva to Long Island) It
Since the storm is further north, Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the coasts of North and South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warnings for Florida remain up, as the worst from Sandy in Florida should be later today and tonight.
As it nears the mid-Atlantic/northeast it likely will retain some of the warm core nature of the storm as it continues to convert to a post-tropical storm, deepening (possibly severely) as it hooks back westward to the coast. But it's already transforming into a non-tropical system where it is now.
Those in the watch/warning areas and beyond should pay attention to local officials and media regarding your immediate area.
7:30AM EDT 25 Oct 2012 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for much of the Florida East coast as Category 2 hurricane Sandy moves into the Atlantic.
8:30PM EDT 24 Oct 2012 Update
Hurricane Sandy is rapidly strengthening tonight as it moves toward Cuba. Recon recently has found a pressure of 961 (down from 968 at the 8PM advisory)
Sandy's setup will either briefly weaken as it goes over Cuba, but is expected to regain hurricane strength over te Bahamas. Hurricane Warnings do exist for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.
For Florida the center should be enough offshore to keep winds only at Tropical Storm force, and more areas will likely be under Tropical Storm watches/Warnings later tonight and tomorrow. If sandy continues to strengthen, tropical storm force winds may be felt more inland in Florida than previously expected.
7:30AM EDT 24 Oct 2012 Update
Tropical Storm Sandy is approaching Jamaica this morning and will likely make landfall there as a hurricane, as Sandy is very close to hurricane strength currently.
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for southeastern Florida for the large wind field of Sandy that will likely make the closest approach to Florida (but remain offshore) late Thursday into Friday.
Watch extensions to the north (for east central Florida) are likely later today.
Sandy will mostly be a large wind storm, with steady winds approaching or at tropical storm force, especially Thursday and Friday. Some rain will be seen along the east coast.
Offshore seas will likely be up to 20-25ft, closer in 10-15, and storm surge will likely be 2-4 ft in some areas along Florida, with very strong waves on top of that. In the Bahamas, the surge will likely be more 4-7 ft above normal.
Beach erosion is likely, and some areas (Palm Beach County, for example) may see coastal flooding.
In the Northeastern US, the concern will be if the system gets ejected to the east or stalls and gets trapped off Long Island (very bad setup in that case).
11PM EDT 23 Oct 2012 Update
Sandy continues to accelerate to the north northeast, no watches were issued tonight for Florida, but may tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Tony forms from TD#19 in the central Atlantic, and looks to stay out to sea.
Only two unused names left on the 2012 list.
The largest impact, by far, for Florida will be the extremely rough seas along the east coast. Some areas could see 12 foot seas Thursday, and even higher on Friday (20-25ft). Beach erosion will likely be extreme. Areas along southeast Florida are already starting to see rough seas.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Sandy has begun the move no the north northeast today and Hurricane Warnings are now up for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.
Tropical Storm Warnings exist for Haiti, and Watches for the Bahamas.
Because of the high potential for a very large wind field with Sandy, Tropical Storm Watches may be needed for Southeast Florida late tonight or tomorrow.
Based on the current Forecast, Friday afternoon would be the closest point to Florida, and tropical storm force winds may reach the coast of southeast Florida then, while the storm itself will be over the Central Bahamas.
Once north of the islands the likelihood for a subtropical or extratropical transition is high. And the forecast takes it more northeast, away from the US, but longer range models suggest the trough interaction will draw the system more west, becoming a strong nor'easter/hybrid that could threaten the Northeastern US. Both major models show this as a possibility, which would bring strong winds along the coast and possibly surge in the northeast sometime next week.
NWS Melbourne Impact weather update
Long term satellite recording for Sandy - Alternate Animator
Long term Radar recording for Sandy - Alternate Animator (Starts from Florida)
Flowing Wind Map
Cameras and more:
Follow Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com on the map (with video/radar and satellite)
Sebastian Inlet Jetty Cam
Lauderdale By the Sea cam (Winjammer Resort)
Hollywood Beach Webcam (Sugar Reef Grill)
Palm Beach Webcam
New Smyrna Beach Cam (Near Flagler Ave)
Cocoa Beach Pier
Daytona Beach Webcam
Flagler Beach Webcam
Other east coast webcams
Power Outage Maps
Florida:
Florida Power & Light Power Outage Map
Progress Energy Power Outage Map
Florida Road Conditions
Mid-Atlantic & Northeast:
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Novec/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
CT United Illuminating Outage Map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
Western Mass
Eastern Mass (NStar)
{{EastCentralFloridaMedia}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Sandy|18|18|2012|18|Sandy}}
{{StormLinks|Tony|19|19|2012|19|Tony}}
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 11:12 AM |
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
Its a hurricane now and watches and warnings have been extended up the FL east coast. Also of note, the pressure has dropped 8MB in the last 50 minutes since the last vortex msg as messured by recon
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 11:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
Recon has found a pressure of 971mb, so it's still strengthening, which it probably will do while still in the Caribbean.
| Storm Cooper |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 03:51 PM |
|
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
Sandy has made landfall near Kingston with about 80 mph winds.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 05:21 PM |
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
Kingston at 5p was reporting pressure of 972mb and winds of 30kts...so Sandy was still deepening on landfall. It looks like it didnt lose much steam over Jamaica and has since emerged on the north side. It might deepen some more prior to Cuban landfall
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 06:25 PM |
|
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
Sandy looks very impressive right now on satellite with a very nice cdo and eye. Sandy is certainly strengthening as it approaches Cuba tonight, would not shock me to see this 90-100mph at landfall in Cuba. Will be interesting when recon gets there this evening, however as usual with the no fly over restrictions over Cuba it will make it difficult on recon unless Cuba decides to allow them to fly over...
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 07:44 PM |
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
I didn't think they could fly over Cuba, but they did. They must have had permission from the Cuban government
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 07:54 PM |
|
Re: Sandy on the Move, Very High Seas for East Coast. Tony Forms.
|
In the last set of data, it looks like the HH's have made a U turn before getting to the storm.
update...they just made a big loop back for whatever reason and are on course.
They just reached the core with pressure down to 961mb and FL winds 96kts (110 mph) Max surface winds 90mph so far
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 09:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
Recon picked up on a northeast wobble recently, and appears to be under 960mb now (956-958) It likely will resume more northerly soon.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 10:09 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
956.3 MB was lowest in the last pass through the center. Winds aren't quite up that much just yet
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 10:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
A few recon reports are at 954mb, and ~102knot flight level winds.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 24 2012 11:23 PM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
While I was pouring over model data for Facebook, I saw the shift east on satellite. The 25/00Z package has yet to roll in but for the time being the GFS is the outlier and manual progs have PTC Sandy making landfall near NYC.
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 12:56 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
25/1230AM EDT Update from NHC:
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS
MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.
ED
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 06:35 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
Bill, I'm looking at the 00Z and 06Z runs, especially the GFS and GFDL and they do not look pleasant for the east coast. The GFS has a New England impact, while the GFDL sends it strait to me on the Chesapeake Bay.
The most interesting aspect is the GFS pulls in a huge amount of Canadian cold air, bringing sub-freezing temperatures into the Mid-Atlantic and the potential for a major winter storm from the outer rain bands of Sandy.
The one good thing is it looks like the storm may be post-tropical by the time it hits, so the winds won't be quite as bad as if it was pure tropical.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 07:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
Added long term satellite recording for Sandy here (starts now)
Alternate Animator
Long term Radar recording for Sandy - Alternate Animator (Starts from Florida)
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 01:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
Pull up the Surface-Thickness charts and look for the 534 - 540 - 546 decameter lines...anything less than 534...all snow...540...mix...546...liquid. I talked to Mike and Ed about this...if you cannot find my posts in regards to PTC Sandy...look for them in the Other Weather Events but pull up Facebook...I will cover the storm there though Tuesdays and Thursday I might be scarce; since I'm a full time 53 year old college student and I'm in school those days. I think Mike is going to allow some lee way since there is the possibility that Sandy will be a hybrid and have characteristics of both tropical and extra-tropical systems. I'm not going to venture as to if this is the 2012 version of the perfect storm. First things first...right now Sandy is tropical; my focus will be dealing with Sandy as a dynamic surface and upper low so I will be using a different product set than everybody is use to seeing. One caveat; though I seriously doubt it, if the cyclone remains far enough off shore and does not pose a threat to the East Coast; I'm going to ignore it and refer everybody to the local NWSFO's and HPC discussions; that said, it's not everyday you talk about snow on our tropical pages! Take care!
| HobbyistinNH |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 04:38 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
I have been around these forums for years as a guest, and finally registered.
I am not too knowledgeable on this sort of hurricane stuff, so please bear with me.
I am wanting to know, is it too early for them to be calling this a "perfect storm" scenario?
I live in Southern NH, and am concerned that this may hit us as a Cat 1, and the whole "perfect storm' idea sounds like a big bad problem for us. I was too young to remember the last perfect storm, but have seen the movie... I know media and news outlets do tend to exaggerate these things. What are your thoughts?
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 05:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
Adding a few links (more to come)
Coastal Cameras and more:
Sebastian Inlet Jetty Cam
Hollywood Beach Webcam (Sugar Reef Grill)
Lauderdale By the Sea cam (Winjammer Resort)
Palm Beach Webcam
New Smyrna Beach Cam (Near Flagler Ave)
Cocoa Beach Pier
Daytona Beach Webcam
Flagler Beach Webcam
The Perfect Storm was brought up since the models are projecting a similar situation (albiet closer to land) once it reaches the northeastern coast. It's not a guarantee it will be, but a significant weather even for the northeast is likely next week.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 25 2012 11:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
The key question for the Chesapeake Bay region will be whether the track is east or west of the bay. The scenarios are very different.
With a track east of the bay, the worst of the storm surge stays off the Atlantic coast while winds are predominantly northerly on the bay, pushing water south and out into the Atlantic. If it then crosses the delmarva at a later point, the water is already out and the surge will not push up the bay, meaning relatively low coastal flooding risk. Inland flooding will still be a problem in this scenario.
With a track up or west of the bay, the storm surge will drag water up the bay while the southerly winds amplify the surge by backing water into the bay, resulting in a substantial surge potentially akin to what we saw with Isabel.
While an asymmetrical warm core system such as Sandy is predicted to be will have a broad, shallower wind field meaning the exact point of landfall is less important than with a hurricane, an impact in the Chesapeake region makes the exact point of impact extremely important for determining the potential for coastal flooding along the Chesapeake shoreline.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 26 2012 12:34 PM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy Rapidly Strengthening as it Approaches Cuba
|
@HobbyistinNH
The admins here, the NHC, wmur mets are all good sources. No reason to panic, we will survive potentially strong winds.
The people who died in the "Perfect Storm" were way out to sea fishing.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 26 2012 04:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy in the Northern Bahamas
|
Power Outage Links added relevant to sandy:
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Florida:
Florida Power & Light Power Outage Map
Progress Energy Power Outage Map
Florida Road Conditions
Mid-Atlantic & Northeast:
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Novec/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
CT United Illuminating Outage Map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
Western Mass
Eastern Mass (NStar)
Follow Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com on the map (with video/radar and satellite)
| HobbyistinNH |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 26 2012 07:49 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Sandy in the Northern Bahamas
|
My mother just sent this to me from Cocoa Beach, FL
She said the waves there are atleast 30 feet above normal... Don't know if that is true or not.
Its looking like its going to miss MA and NH, truth in that? Models are ALL over the place...