MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 09:38 AM |
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Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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9 AM Update 28 October 2012
The northeast motion will likely continue today, the pressure is actually lower than yesterday, yet the wind field around the center is about the same, mainly because more energy is away from the center of Sandy. The northwestern side of the storm is being pulled north, and the dry air to the south continues.
In short, this translates to a very ugly day along the Outer Banks, and starting to get progressively worse along the DelMarVa, Sandy is still forecast to hook back left and cross somewhere between the delmarva and eastern long island possibly with an even lower pressure than now. This would enhance the winds and storm surge along the entire landfall area. Models continue to show the system hooking westward while continuing to deepen right up until landfall.
High Wind warnings are up along the coast north of North Carolina, but they are splitting hairs on when the difference between tropical and non-tropical transition occurs and either way hurricane force winds or gusts will be felt along many areas along with extremely long periods of tropical storm force winds, many of it onshore.
Again today the north facing sound coastlines will be at risk for storm surge in eastern North Carolina, as well as north facing beaches along the outer banks.. Hatteras is vulnerable when the storm moves far enough north for the west wind to be a bit more pronounced.
Original Update
After weakening this morning to a tropical storm, aircraft recon has found Sandy regaining strength, and is back to a category 1 hurricane again as it moves into being a hybrid storm.
Most of Sandy's convection is on the northern and western sides, in fact the south and east sides of Sandy have quite a bit of dry air. This is leaving south Florida clear this morning (with only lingering winds and surf), but central and northeastern Florida has seen most of the rain shield move offshore as well.
South and North Carolina are now getting the lion's share of the rain from Sandy and the coasts there are going to feel the affects of the storm, the southern ends of the sounds inside the outer banks may see some flooding.
Sandy is expected to stay about where it is now intensity wise at least over the next day. After that more of the interaction with the trough/front occurs and it may actually get stronger despite becoming less and less tropical. It may very well still have a warm core up until close to landfall.
Forecast models have mostly consolidated on a landfall impact Monday evening in New Jersey, just south of New York City, which is not good news for Long Island and NYC. It could have impacts similar to the 1938 Long Island Express, which saw an immense amount of surge along the area and created Shinnecock Inlet, The extra energy that will occur with the front and polar systems injecting energy will allow for a long period of onshore winds that drive surge along quite a large area. Points north of landfall will likely see the worst surge, possibly for quite a distance north along the coast. Areas that have not seen coastal flooding in decades may do so from this storm.
It is likely that travel will be disrupted in the northeast airports during parts of the storm, possible lasting a few days at certain locations.
In short the riding from the approaching cold front interacting with Sandy will create a rather sharp pressure differential which increases the wind, and the moisture from sandy hitting the cold air behind the front forces extra moisture to form, and precipitation which results in massive rainstorm on the warm side of the front, and incredible amounts of snow on the colder side. The large amount of wind drives more water along the route, which would push water up the river and onto the shore, including the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island, and points north. Those south will see more offshore wind, but still quite a bit of impact. It is possible the area near the center will see record low pressures.
Note the current large wind field of has a rough diameter of 105 miles of hurricane force winds and 450 miles of tropical storm force winds, and this area will likely grow by landfall. Gale conditions may start in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow.
Power outages are likely to be extremely widespread across the northeast starting Monday (and Monday night into Tuesday in particular). Restoration in certain areas may take weeks.
Please listen to local media and official regarding your immediate area.
How are Sandy related conditions and the general response in your area? Let us know here!
Long term satellite recording for Sandy - Alternate Animator
Long term Radar recording for Sandy - Alternate Animator (Starts from Florida)
Flowing Wind Map
Cameras and more:
Follow Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com on the map (with video/radar and satellite) (tower recording) Also visit hurricanetrack.com for updates and awesome premium services.
Statue of Liberty Cams (including New York Harbor
Brooklyn Bridge Cam
New York Harbor webcam
Rockaway Beach, Long Island Cam
Brooklyn, NY Webcam Stream
Point Pleasant Beach, NJ Live Streaming Camera
Atlantic City, NJ WebCam Stream
Ocean City, MD cam (Fager's Island)
Long Beach Island, NJ Webcam
Atlantic City, NJ Steel Pier Cam
Sea Ranch Resort in Kill Devil Hills, NC (Along OBX/Outer Banks)
Virginia Beach Webcams
NYT Sandy Cam (Recording)
Florida:
Sebastian Inlet Jetty Cam
Lauderdale By the Sea cam (Winjammer Resort)
Hollywood Beach Webcam (Sugar Reef Grill)
Palm Beach Webcam
New Smyrna Beach Cam (Near Flagler Ave)
Cocoa Beach Pier
Daytona Beach Webcam
Flagler Beach Webcam
Other east coast webcams
Audio
Police Scanners in:
Atlantic City, NJ Police/Fire/Emt Scanner
FDNY Scanner
Power Outage Maps
Florida:
Florida Power & Light Power Outage Map
Progress Energy Power Outage Map
Florida Road Conditions
Mid-Atlantic & Northeast:
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Novec/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
First Energy (Most of the rest of PA) power outage map.
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
CT United Illuminating Outage Map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
Western Mass
Eastern Mass (NStar)
Vermont (Green Mountain Power) Outage Map
Northeastern US Composite Radar
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Sandy|18|18|2012|18|Sandy}}
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 10:11 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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From the 8am NHC Public Advisory:
SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H. A
NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
53 MPH...85 KM/H.
Bold emphasis added
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 11:04 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Tropical storm watches/warnings are dropped from the east Florida coastline as of 11AM.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 11:22 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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HPC forecasting 4-6" rain for DC/Baltimore, 6-8" rain for Annapolis south and east, including most of the Chesapeake. 10+" along the Atlantic coast of Maryland.
Graphic: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/tcqpf.php?sname=Sandy
Other model sources:
- 12Z NAM shows 5-10" for the entire DC/Baltimore region, with 10-15" right at the Atlantic Coast. 84 hour run still has the system over this region at the end of the period.
- 06Z GFS shows 5-10" for areas north and east of DC, including all of Baltimore. 3-5" south and west of DC. 5-10" for parts of WV/western Maryland. More right along the Atlantic Coast. Reference was 108hr total precip.
- 06Z GFDL shows 11-15" potential for the entire DC/Baltimore region.
- 00Z CMC shows 15+" potential for the entire DC/Baltimore region - this seems like an outlier.
- NOGAPS was underestimating at about 1-2" rainfall, not reliable in this case.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 11:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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HPC Extended Range Discussion - bold emphasis added:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
VALID 12Z WED OCT 31 2012 - 12Z SAT NOV 03 2012
...BY THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND
INTERIOR/ELEVATED HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ITS SOUTHWESTERN MEMBER IS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF SANDY.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW A
CLOSED CYCLONE TO MOVE UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN...WITH SANDY'S COURSE AND STRENGTH
REMAINING THE MAIN WILD CARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY IS WELL UNDERWAY...A PROCESS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC). THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS WEAKENED SANDY DURING THE
SHORT RANGE PERIOD TOWARDS THE THOUGHTS FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...MAKING THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE MUCH MORE USABLE WITH
ITS DEPTH. SINCE THE GUIDANCE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE...USED A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
THEREAFTER...ADJUSTING SANDY'S POSITION TO THE MOST RECENT
THOUGHTS FROM NHC (WHICH RESEMBLED THE BLEND).
UPSTREAM...LIKE YESTERDAY STILL PREFER A SOLUTION ON THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE WRN US CONSIDERING AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LEAD FLOW. A
BLEND OF DETERMINITSIC MODEL RUNS IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET OFFERS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN
CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED
AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY) AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND... LEADING TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS
COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE STORM SURGE WHICH BUILT
UP DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER
MULTIPLE TIDAL CYCLES...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW
YORK BIGHT...SHOULD BE BEGIN TO RECEDE WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S LEAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON
ITS BACKSIDE WITHIN ITS COMMA HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE
SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THEN NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE
CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE LOW.
ACROSS THE WEST...THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS PERIOD...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO
5 INCHES OVER FAVORED COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH
DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. UPSLOPE RAINS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING THURSDAY THROUGH LATER IN
THE WEEK AS WRN US SYSTEM ENERGIES EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 02:22 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Ocean Prediction's Center forecast map for Storm Surge in the northeast:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_NORTH_EAST/SURGE_NORTH_96_HR.shtml
Shows 8 ft + in some areas, enough to flood parts of the coastal areas of New Jersey and Long Island (Incl. Lower Manhattan).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 06:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Conditions are very bad along the outer banks tonight, where Mark Sudduth and Jessie Bass are live streaming from over at http://www.hurricanetrack.com.
| HobbyistinNH |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 07:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Quote:
Conditions are very bad along the outer banks tonight, where Mark Sudduth and Jessie Bass are live streaming from over at http://www.hurricanetrack.com.
As her track moves closer north to us, it seems to be having NH in the full cone now.
What preparations should we start? If any... people are saying just wind and rain like Irene...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 09:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Also the SLOSH website for plots of surge + tides:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=me
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 27 2012 10:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Beautiful photo of Sandy from 18:30Z today:
Enlarge: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Sandy.A2012301.1830.500m.jpg
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 02:32 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Here is a nice easy site that plots the Tides and Forecast TIdes. It's the New England link to the Mid Atlantic link that RandomChaos posted above.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne
Of note: The forecast for the Battery in New York is now up to 11 feet. Quite a bit of an increase.
To view the history of the forecast over the last few days just click the "HISTORY" button.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 04:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Blizzard warning up for western Maryland / northern West Virginia. So much for this not likely being a snow maker!
8+ inches of heavy snow in high winds expected for that area.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 08:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Rough formula for Tropical Cyclone Surge estimates.
Sea level pressure of 1013 minus current storm pressure 950 equals 63 mb. 63 divided by 4 (constant) equals a rough peak Storm Surge of 15.75 feet above ground level, or AGL.
This formula works great for Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Tropical Storms. I'm not sure how well it will work with Super Storm Sandy. However, the 15.75 feet estimate is just above what the current forecasts are.
This is based on the Current pressure of 950mb at 7pm EDT- Sunday 28 Oct2012
This is an estimate of just how High the surge may be and not a NWS forecast.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/
Please consult your local NWS Forecast for Official Forecasts, Statements, Watches and Warnings.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php
...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY MORNING...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
KINGS POINT NY......1159 AM........12.8............MODERATE..
LATTINGTOWN NY......1158 AM........12.9............MODERATE..
STAMFORD CT.........1131 AM........12.6............MODERATE..
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1128 AM........12.1............MODERATE..
NEW HAVEN CT........1128 AM........11.0............MODERATE..
...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
THE BATTERY NYC.....813 PM.........11.7.............MAJOR....
BERGEN POINT NY.....814 PM.........12.3.............MAJOR....
...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
KINGS POINT NY......1227 AM........16.6.............MAJOR....
LATTINGTOWN NY......1205 AM........16.7.............MAJOR....
STAMFORD CT.........1201 AM........16.4.............MAJOR....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1158 PM........15.9.............MAJOR....
NEW HAVEN CT........1157 PM........15.3.............MAJOR....
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 09:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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From the Sterling NWS office - highlights of their local statement - 842pm local time, Sunday:
SUMMARY OF THREATS
------------------
THE MAIN THREATS FOR SANDY WILL BE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2500 FEET.
HIGH WINDS
----------
* WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OCCURRING BETWEEN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
* HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT A
REGION LOCATED BETWEEN BEL AIR MD...PT LOOKOUT MD...AND
FREDERICK MD. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREAS.
* COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAINS FROM SANDY...THE HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.
RAINFALL AND FLOODING
---------------------
* 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN JUST WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INCLUDING
THE BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREA.
* 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 270
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREA.
* 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER BASIN INCLUDING CUMBERLAND MD.
* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 66
INCLUDING CHARLOTTESVILLE VA.
* THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF
LOCAL STREAMS...CREEKS AND SMALL RIVERS STARTING ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOODING
----------------
* WITH THE FULL MOON ON MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ALREADY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. COUNTER TO THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
MONDAY WILL CAUSE A BLOW-OUT TIDE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. EAST FACING BEACHES
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL EXPERIENCE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES THAT
WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF TIDAL FLOODING AND RESULT IN SIMILAR
IMPACTS.
* AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND DAWN ON TUESDAY...WATER
WILL RETURN BACK INTO THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AND BEING TO
PILE UP IN THE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND IN THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
SNOWFALL
--------
* IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 2500 FEET THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY WET SNOW.
* THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WOULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* BE PREPARED FOR EXTENDED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
* IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES...REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR
HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE AND RIDE SANDY OUT.
* REFRAIN FROM ANY UNNECESSARY TRAVEL.
* ENSURE LOOSE ITEMS ON YOUR PROPERTY ARE SECURED.
* IF POWER LINES ARE DOWN...STAY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL ELECTRICAL UTILITY COMPANY.
* IF YOU SHOULD HAVE EMERGENCY TRAVEL...IF YOU COME UPON FLOODED
ROADWAYS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SUBMERGED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND
AND DONT DROWN.
* IF YOU USE A PORTABLE POWER GENERATOR...PLEASE FOLLOW
MANUFACTURERS INSTRUCTIONS AND ENSURE THAT IT IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED.
* DO NOT USE CHARCOAL GRILLS IN ENCLOSED AREAS.
* MARINERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT THERE IS ENOUGH SLACK LINE IN THEIR
BOAT`S MOORINGS TO ACCEPT A BLOW OUT TIDE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
* PERIODICALLY CHECK ON YOUR ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AND FAMILY MEMBERS
TO ENSURE THEY ARE SAFE.
* PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY HAVE FILLED THEIR PRESCRIPTIONS AND
HAVE A FULL TANK OF GAS. IF NOT THESE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 11:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 02:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:54:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 34°21'N 70°50'W (34.35N 70.8333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 274 miles (441 km) to the ESE (103°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,652m (8,701ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SW (225°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 284° at 89kts (From the WNW at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 123 nautical miles (142 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) in the south quadrant at 1:03:30Z
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 11:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Looks like Sandy may still be a warm core storm. Eye dropsonde showing 76 F degrees.
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb (28.08 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 10° (from the N) 11 knots (13 mph)
925mb 241m (791 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 5° (from the N) 13 knots (15 mph)
850mb 981m (3,219 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 10° (from the N) 11 knots (13 mph)
700mb 2,648m (8,688 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 40° (from the NE) 2 knots (2 mph)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 28 2012 11:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 03:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 3:10:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 34°33'N 70°43'W (34.55N 70.7167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 277 miles (446 km) to the E (100°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,655m (8,711ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 51° at 42kts (From the NE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) in the south quadrant at 1:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 3:15:00Z
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 02:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Latest Vortex message with some additional info that supports the notion that Sandy is indeed strengthening a bit tonight, although the strongest winds are still mostly well away from her center (subtropical). Bolding added for emphasis. Compare with prior Vortex message posted above. Will need to see if the impressive SFMR is not rain contaminated data.
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) in the south quadrant at 1:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:46:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND SFC SFMR WIND 78KTS AT 05:36:30Z
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 05:03 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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5am NHC: 946mb, 75kt winds
AF Hurricane Hunter is in the storm. This came out just before NHC 5am:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 08:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 8:25:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 35°48'N 70°33'W (35.8N 70.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 283 miles (455 km) to the E (82°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,613m (8,573ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 88 nautical miles (101 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 266° at 86kts (From the W at ~ 99.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 128 nautical miles (147 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the northeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 7:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (219°) from the flight level center
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 07:49 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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There is some coastal flooding going on at Fager's Island in Ocean City, MD : Webcam.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 08:29 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Flooding ocurring in New York Harbor Webcam link. Multiple reports of flooding in Atlantic City, NJ, parts of the boardwalk have broken up along the north end.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 09:16 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Wanted to point out links are being updated on the frontpage throughout the day:
Cameras and more:
Follow Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com on the map (with video/radar and satellite) (tower recording) Also visit hurricanetrack.com for updates and awesome premium services.
Statue of Liberty Cams (including New York Harbor
Brooklyn Bridge Cam
New York Harbor webcam
Rockaway Beach, Long Island Cam
Point Pleasant Beach, NJ Live Streaming Camera
Ocean City, MD cam (Fager's Island)
Long Beach Island, NJ Webcam
Atlantic City, NJ Steel Pier Cam
Sea Ranch Resort in Kill Devil Hills, NC (Along OBX/Outer Banks)
Virginia Beach Webcams
NYT Sandy Cam (Recording)
Ocean City, MD (Fager's Island) (Recording)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 11:02 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Annapolis City Dock camera: http://www.annapolis.com/community/historic-annapolis-city-dock-web-cam/
Also, I heard that the Ocean City Fishing Pier has washed away - via local radio interview with CBS news crew in Ocean City.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 11:11 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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The latest recon still has sandy strengthening, now down to 937.5mb.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 12:21 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Vortex recon was 946mb. Not sure where the 937mb came from - saw it somewhere else also.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 12:31 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Extrapolated from HDOB if I remember correctly.
Edit: Adding the link to where it came from.
| HobbyistinNH |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 12:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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New York Harbor.....
My thoughts are with these folks...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 12:55 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Sandy's center is now visible on long range radar out of New Jersey.
| jkapust |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 01:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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It concerns me, that the nhc isn't modifying the track, to reflect the later and less intense turn thus far, and are just keeping the original track, as the most intense winds are to the south and west of center, and will likely track somewhere to the north of the 12 hour ago predicted path. This means that northern NJ will likely see more intense rain, wind, and likely more impacting a storm of us in boston. Yes it may be only 20-50 miles difference, but in a congested city coastline, it makes a difference. It makes a difference to us, as now it means the north shore is now likely to get flooding north of boston, instead of just the south facing beaches.
In the end, we will all be affected. I just wonder how affected the hurricane will be by the front, as deep as the hurricane part is.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 01:15 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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I just checked the track. It's pretty much right on the NHC track, maybe a slight northward wobble, but pretty close.
| Dougyd |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 04:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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It is also amazing that with a storm of this size within 4 hours, the NHC changed not only the direction dramatically but also the speed - from 18 to 28 mph.
I think they need better forecasting models, more frequent reporting or something. - This 4 hour period changed things dramatically (between the 11:00 AM Oct 29 Outlook and the 3:00 PM Outlook.
It is not funny how The Weather Channel is trying to cover this change. Their meteorologist photos are great (although they do what we should not). Sorry, just a rant. Doug
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 04:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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But the acceleration westward was predicted...
What do you want the NHC to do? This has been a very well forecast storm thus far even in light of its unprecedented nature.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 29 2012 04:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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The turn and speed increase were forecast. Not sure what you're referring to???
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 09:50 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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The storm arrived on time, as predicted, and behaved exactly as advertised. Much to the surprise of too many people.
The only criticism I have heard from a knowledgable source (Bastardi) was that NHC declassified it too soon, as at land fall it was still very much a tropical system, albeit very sheared, and behaved accordingly. I have to say the picture made by AVN-infrared, as the center of circulation touched the New Jersey coast line at about 8:00 p.m. last night was classic...It showed a multi-layred cloud bank surrounding the small circulation center, which had become exposed by the shearing off of the higher cloud tops to the west. It was a classic view and I wish I had saved it. To me, it was still very much a tropical system at that exact moment.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 01:24 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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GOES 13 loop of Sandy landfall: http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/movie/latest_ref.mov
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 06:39 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Technical question: IF Sandy was declassified before the COC made land fall did a hurricane make land fall on the New Jersey shore last night?
| HobbyistinNH |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 09:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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I think they did declassify a bit early, but that is just from watching the news, and seeing the timing of the storm ect. We're getting the remnants of this "storm" now, like... the rain, and other bands ect. that arent even combined into the PTC anymore... its just a bunch of cold fronts coming through with remnants from storm according to the news... purple lightning... still somewhat windy... I pray those in NY, NJ. MD, CT and elsewhere are safe.
| srquirrely |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 09:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Quote:
Technical question: IF Sandy was declassified before the COC made land fall did a hurricane make land fall on the New Jersey shore last night?
From the top right corner of flhurricane page: "Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 1 (Sandy), in Florida: 2563 (Wilma)"
Officially, though, insurance co's etc. might argue for a more specific call on this...
I, for one, think the NHC and NWS made a very bad decision on how to handle this storm. Just sayin'
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 09:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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As expected (unfortunately) Sandy will go down in the record books. It is really hard to see some of images out of this area. I like many others have family in NYC area and they received quite a bit of damage from talking with them this evening. It is crazy to here officials mention how global warming effected this storm???Are you kidding me that is just crazy. More like we are in an active period/cycle right now. My prayers go out to all those effected...
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Ed Dunham
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| (Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 30 2012 10:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Post-tropical Sandy is still an ongoing event - located 50 miles ENE of Pittsburg at 30/21Z.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...at 30/21Z
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
GALE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COASTS.
FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.
BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
With consideration for the 'landfalling' questions (and in an attempt to keep myself on-topic), I've added a postscript to the Met Blog on Sandy.
ED
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 31 2012 11:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Thanks Ed! Your blog comment clarified the issue. Perhaps in the post seasonal review the matter can be cleared up. To me, and many others, it was a sheared tropical system that made landfall, and not a post tropical one.
Based on the official determination then, Irene remains the last land falling hurricane, correct?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 31 2012 06:30 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Quote:
Technical question: IF Sandy was declassified before the COC made land fall did a hurricane make land fall on the New Jersey shore last night?
Probably will be answered in the NHC end-of-season analysis.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Nov 01 2012 10:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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Tropical or Post Tropical or Extratropical Cyclone....
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. THE INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS
ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR
A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL. A POST-STORM
ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
Below are the last 3 Vortex messages for Hurricane Sandy.
URNT12 KNHC 292240 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 29/22:12:40Z
B. 38 deg 55 min N
074 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 909 m
D. 46 kt
E. 026 deg 82 nm
F. 093 deg 64 kt
G. 026 deg 85 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 11 C / 1524 m
J. 16 C / 1526 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm
P. AF308 2418A SANDY OB 21 CCA
MAX FL WIND 88 KT S QUAD 20:27:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT E QUAD 22:27:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 030 / 23 NM FROM FL CNTR
COR FOR OUTBOUND WIND
Max Flt Level Temp 22C/ 72F~danielw
********************************************************
URNT12 KNHC 292315
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 29/23:08:10Z
B. 39 deg 12 min N
074 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 901 m
D. 54 kt
E. 079 deg 66 nm
F. 172 deg 70 kt
G. 079 deg 66 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 6 C / 1526 m
J. 15 C / 1527 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 2418A SANDY OB 25
MAX FL WIND 88 KT S QUAD 20:27:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 094 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
Max Flt Level Temp 18C/ 64F
****************************************************************
URNT12 KNHC 292355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 29/23:35:40Z
B. 39 deg 18 min N
074 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 909 m
D. 56 kt
E. 067 deg 32 nm
F. 160 deg 61 kt
G. 071 deg 36 nm
H. 948 mb
I. 15 C / 1521 m
J. 15 C / 1525 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 2418A SANDY OB 27
MAX FL WIND 88 KT S QUAD 20:27:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 083 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
36 NM INBOUND LEG
Max Flt level Temp 17C/ 63F
**********************************************************
Max wind VORTEX and Minimum central pressure:
URNT12 KNHC 292128 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 29/19:17:00Z
B. 38 deg 29 min N
073 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 870 m
D. 59 kt
E. 348 deg 77 nm
F. 059 deg 101 kt
G. 348 deg 75 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 10 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2418A SANDY OB 10 CCA
MAX FL WIND 101 KT N QUAD 18:54:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 94 KT S QUAD 19:34:30Z
FIXED NEAR TIP OF CONVECTIVE FEATURE
COR FOR MAX OUTBOUND WIND
;
*************************************************************
Lowest pressure and maximum flight level wind, immediately prior to landfall, are found in Mission 24, Obs 10.
B. Center Fix Location: 71 miles (115 km) to the SSE (149°) from Atlantic City, NJ, USA
H. 941 mb
Eye temps are:
I. 10 C / 1524 m (50F air temp outside the Eye)
J. 19 C / 1527 m (66F air temp inside the Eye)
K. 17 C / NA (63F dew point inside the Eye)
**************************
Last Vortex prior to Landfall:
Mission 24, Obs 27
B. Center Fix Location: 5 miles (7 km) to the S (176°) from Atlantic City, NJ, USA.
H. 948 mb
Eye temps are:
I. 15 C / 1521 m (59F air temp outside the Eye)
J. 15 C / 1525 m (59F air temp inside the Eye)
K. 13 C / NA (55F dew point inside Eye)
Max Flight Level Temps dropped from 22C/ 72 F to 17C/ 63 F at landfall. Not much of a drop, but still a drop.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Nov 01 2012 11:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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NOUS41 KOKX 312045 RRA
PNSOKX
CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-070515-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
...MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AND
ACCOMPANYING SURGE...
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GAUGES
..........................MAXIMUM.......ASTRONOMICAL....STORM
LOCATION................WATER LEVEL......TIDE LEVEL.....SURGE.....TIME
FREEPORT................10.12 FT NGVD...2.27 FT NGVD....7.85 FT...930 PM
REYNOLDS CHANNEL........10.10 FT NGVD...2.32 FT NGVD....7.78 FT...906 PM
LINDENHURST..............7.73 FT NGVD...1.47 FT NGVD....6.26 FT..1006 PM
EAST ROCKAWAY...........10.80 FT NGVD...2.72 FT NGVD....8.08 FT...842 PM
JAMAICA.................11.65 FT NGVD...3.28 FT NGVD....8.37 FT...936 PM
ROCKAWAY................11.75 FT NGVD...2.81 FT NGVD....8.94 FT...924 PM
NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE GAUGES
..........................MAXIMUM.......ASTRONOMICAL....STORM
LOCATION................WATER LEVEL......TIDE LEVEL.....SURGE.....TIME
BERGEN POINT............14.60 FT MLLW...5.15 FT MLLW....9.45 FT...924 PM
BATTERY.................13.88 FT MLLW...4.65 FT MLLW....9.23 FT...924 PM
KINGS POINT.............14.38 FT MLLW...5.60 FT MLLW....8.78 FT..1000 PM
BRIDGEPORT..............13.26 FT MLLW...5.31 FT MLLW....7.95 FT..1006 PM
NEW HAVEN...............12.30 FT MLLW...3.97 FT MLLW....8.33 FT...930 PM
NEW LONDON...............8.04 FT MLLW...2.08 FT MLLW....5.96 FT...812 PM
MONTAUK..................7.12 FT MLLW...1.88 FT MLLW....5.24 FT...812 PM
NGVD = NATIONAL GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM OF 1929
MLLW = MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
STORM SURGE IS DEFINED AS THE ABNORMAL RISE OF WATER GENERATED BY
A STORM...OVER AND ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THE
MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL...OR STORM TIDE...IS THE SUM OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVEL AND STORM SURGE.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE TABLES ABOVE...THE MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL
WAS THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL RECORDED AT THE DESIGNATED GAUGE. THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVEL WAS THE PREDICTED TIDE LEVEL FOR THE TIME
THAT THE MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL WAS MEASURED. THE STORM SURGE WAS
CALCULATED BY SUBTRACTING THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVEL FROM THE
MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL.
$$
MALOIT
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Nov 03 2012 12:14 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
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An interesting article looking at the hybridization of Sandy: http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/8243/hybridization-sandy