MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 19 2013 08:23 PM |
Slow Week in August
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{{StormLinks|95L|95|6|2013|91|Invest 95L (Yucatan)}}
After a bit of activity last week, both systems fizzled out and now there isn't as much to watch in the tropics this week.
There is an area of convection in the Gulf of Mexico, southwest of Florida that will need to be monitored because of the time of year, but there are no models currently developing the system. If this persists through tomorrow, things may change.
Outside of this, not much going on in the Tropics, which is very unusual for this time in August.
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Aug 20 2013 04:00 AM |
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Re: Slow Week in August
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It is indeed unusual for the week of 19-25 August to not have a named storm. In the past 50 years it has only happened 7 times: 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1997 and 2002. A very weak cyclonic curvature is noted near Cape Sable - but that's it for the entire basin.
ED
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 20 2013 06:23 PM |
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Re: Slow Week in August
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Is GFS picking up the beginning of something or are my eyes just getting older?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 21 2013 12:08 AM |
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Re: Slow Week in August
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The GFS does hint at a system off the African west coast in a few days, however, its probably developing the system that was at 10N 5E at 20/18Z. That however is no guarantee since stronger systems have been noted over the African continent in the past couple of weeks and many of them didn't develop. Time to wait and look for model consistency from run to run, but the basin looks uncommonly quiet for the next few days. Any model output beyond that is fodder for the Lounge.
ED
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 21 2013 03:36 AM |
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Re: Slow Week in August
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I'll give this a 10% chance just for being in the Eastern Caribbean.
Cyclonic curvature noted in the low and mid level clouds. Currently a moderate sized convective complex is in the NE sector of the complex and has what appears to be something close to a CHT- convective hot tower. CHT's are basically turbochargers or power cells in developed tropical cyclones. I've been watching this system for several hours after local sunset and it seems to be holding together, to a degree.
Moderately dry air to the west of the system and dry air to the north of the system.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013-edited~danielw
....IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N76W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS HIGH ENHANCED THE CONVECTION E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE...AND FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 22 2013 11:03 PM |
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NE Gulf of Mexico
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NHC is giving this Low a 10% chance at becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours to 5 days. That percentage will probably increase with the 8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.
First image is centered on the Center of Circulation for the system. Notice the overshooting cloud spike (small grey dot) just west of Tampa,FL. Small CHT?
Water Vapor image. Small yellow dot just west of Tampa. Cloud spike.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 22 2013 11:21 PM |
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Re: NE Gulf of Mexico
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Visible zoom at the same time of the above two photos.
Tampa radar cloud top heights... 51,000 feet on that spike. Nearly 10 miles high. Easily seen from Orlando, I would imagine.
| Hawkeyewx |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 25 2013 04:16 PM |
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Re: Slow Week in August
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It appears 95L in the Bay of Campeche is close to TD status if not already there. It doesn't have much time over water, but it's making the most of it so far.
| ralphfla |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 25 2013 10:24 PM |
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Re: Slow Week in August
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Looking at the GFS next week might get interesting way out in the Atlantic. I am hoping the model is wrong or we get a few Fishes which is what i hope they will be.