cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 29 2014 02:10 PM
Climatological Peak Arrives With Gulf of Mexico Dolly

4:00 AM CDT 2 September 2014 Update
Tropical Storm Dolly (from Invest 99L) is challenging forecasts, and is now starting to put south Texas at some risk for impacts. As of this update, tropical storm force winds are occurring up to 115 miles from the center. In response, the government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital.

Weather Conditions at Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Weather Conditions at Tampico, Mexico

4:30 PM CDT 1 September 2014 Update
Invest 99L which made its way from the Caribbean across the Yucatan and into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Depression Five presently consists of a well defined surface circulation with a curved band of hearty convection wrapping around to the south and east of the center, and maximum sustained winds of 30 MPH. Five is forecast to become Dolly and make landfall well south of The Texas/Mexico border around mid-week as a low-end tropical storm.

Original Update


The end of August comes with entering the climatological peak for activity in the Atlantic basin, and it appears it could be coming right on schedule with no less than five areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Should any of these disturbances become better defined and/or they are issued Invest tags, we will set up individual Forecast Lounges, as warranted.

Closest to home, the broad low of old Invest 98L, which moved inland near Brownsville, Tx late yesterday, has subsumed a strong tropical surge that ran up behind it.

This merged feature is presently producing widespread tropical showers and some thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico from the Mexico/Texas border all the way to the west coast of Florida. Gusts of up to 50 MPH are occurring offshore, and as a westerly wind component already exists, despite the old center of 98L now being just inland, it may be wise to keep tabs on this throughout this holiday weekend, just in case. Sometimes inland centers can reform offshore, if given the chance. Either way, some on again/off again squally weather is a safe bet for much of the gulf coast today, and possibly into the rest of the weekend.

Below: Invest 98L 12:15PM CDT 8/29/2014


{{TexasGulfRadar}}

{{StormCarib}}

{{StormLinks|Dolly|05|5|2014|05|Dolly}}

{{StormLinks|91L|91|6|2014|91|91L (East Atlantic)}}

{{StormLinks|92L|92|7|2014|92|92L (Near Bahamas)}}


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 02 2014 05:00 AM
Re: Climatological Peak Arrives With The Atlantic Bubbling

The current forecast for now Tropical Storm Dolly is being radically challenged by apparent center reformation complications tonight. These jumps not only look to be trying to drag her north of the Cone of Uncertainty, but also up against a region of higher pressures, resulting in a sizable increase in the pressure gradient between the two cells.

South Texas may want to keep a close watch on Dolly during the next 12-36 hours. Even if Dolly does not pull up north a la Humberto (2007), tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, are already occurring a good distance away from the center.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 02 2014 05:59 AM
Re: Climatological Peak Arrives With Gulf of Mexico Dolly



Developing, sloppy systems can be a real bear to forecast. Case in point: Dolly, rather than continuing wnw overnight, made a series of jumps, placing her center due north of the prior confirmed location.



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