MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 08:11 AM
Irma Recon Begins in Earnest. Also Watching SW Gulf Low and E Atl Wave

5:00 PM EDT 3 September 2017 Update


Recon has begun the first in what is sure to be numerous flights into and around the cyclone. The data these brave professionals collect will be fed into models and analyzed by the NHC, making for much better forecasts.

With Irma now tracking closer and closer to the Leewards, Hurricane Watches have been issued.

From NHC
Quote:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.




Elsewhere,
A vigorous topical wave located several hundred miles southeast behind Irma is showing a little bit more cyclonic organization today, with increasing model support.

The persistent troffiness in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has been showing some signs of wanting to develop again, now with more model support. This will likely not affect the CONUS directly, at least not in the near term, but it could have some influence on future steering currents downstream (and possibly Irma's track).

- Ciel

11:00 AM EDT 3 September 2017 Update

Irma is looking a little more ragged right now due to a little bit of dry air intrusion and it is moving WSW, it's a bit south of the 0z EPS model guidance so shifts may occur. I think the models are overdoing intensity in the long range, next up are the Caribbean islands which will likely see some of Irma (how much depends on the exact track, we could get watches starting late today or tomorrow)

Conditions are expected to get better for development east of the Bahamas, where the official forecast takes it very close to the Turks and Caicos at the end of the 5 day period, at this rate parts of the US may be in the cone starting Late Tuesday or Wednesday. Direct affects wouldn't likely be until Sunday or Monday (10-11thh), which means any final preps probably Friday or Saturday depending on where it goes.

Beyond 5 days it is still too soon to tell, the forecast lounge has more speculation and odds.

3:00 AM EDT 3 September 2017 Update
Irma now has a pinhole eye and looks to be undergoing a new phase of Rapid Intensification overnight. The 11PM Advisory had Irma at 110 MPH, but the most recent Dvorak estimates suggest she could become Cat 4 as soon as later today.

In addition to become stronger tonight, Irma is also becoming larger. The larger and stronger she gets, and stays, the greater the surge potential, in addition to the widespread powerful winds. To be blunt, barring unforeseen obstacles, Irma may become a very high-end hurricane within the next 72 hours. Locations within her 5 Day Cone should be paying the closest attention, and prepare for the real possibility of devastating impacts.
-Ciel

5:00 PM EDT 1 September 2017 Update


Irma has completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, and has restrengthened from 110 MPH Cat 2 to now a 120MPH Major, with some continuing intensification noted, although possibly being tempered by somewhat lower SSTs and a touch of dry air in the immediate area. Modeling indicates that shear may be a little less ideal over the next few days, but it is still probable that Irma passes by or over the Leeward Islands as a solid Major.

More on Irma, including longer range model outlooks and discussion, can be found in the HUR Irma Lounge.

Elsewhere:

The remnants of Harvey, now centered near northern Tennessee, continue producing flooding rains and tornadoes. The damage being left in his wake has been nothing short of catastrophic.

Lidia, an east Pac tropical storm, is running up the Baja of California, and is expected to produce some locations of flooding rains in southern Arizona this weekend, although not expected to cross into the US.

An area of low pressure is persisting in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although NHC has dropped this feature from their Tropical Weather Outlooks, it continues to be monitored. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, this type of setup can result in copious rains in the western Gulf. Possible New Development in Gulf

Last, a strong wave in the far eastern Atlantic continues producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Conditions could become more supportive of development next week, and a Lounge is already up (Invest number not yet available). E Atlantic Tropical Wave
-Ciel

4:00 PM EDT 31 August 2017 Update
Irma is likely now a 115MPH Major, with T numbers solidly around 5.5 Now is the time to prepare if you are in her 5 day cone.

We are also monitoring a vigorous tropical wave presently located to Irma's southeast, which will probably be tagged Invest 94L soon. Also keeping an eye on a trof in the southwestern Gulf. Any addition rains in Texas and Louisiana would be unwelcome, to say the least.
-Ciel

Original Update
Harvey was the first Major hurricane to strike the US in the last 12 years, and likely the defining hurricane event for this decade. The rainfall is still occurring in Louisiana and Arkansas, and the effects of it in Texas and the other areas will be long lasting, with rivers continuing to rise even though the rain has stopped,. Unprecedented level of disruptions from Corpus Christi, Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, NeW Orleans, and places in between. Many horrifying and amazing stories have come out of the system, nobody in those areas will ever forget it.

Meanwhile, the area known as 93L has formed to the first classic Cape Verde storm in quite a while, Irma, which is likely to become a hurricane later today. Although it's too far out to reliably say where it winds up, those in the Caribbean will want to keep watch of this one, and follow the projection trends. Beyond that it is worth watching as well. There is more discussion and speculation about it in the forecast lounge.

It is expected to keep moving just north of west for a bit and potentially bend back to the southwest starting Saturday, if it were to affect the Caribbean islands it would be likely near Wednesday based on current trends. If Irma affects the US the timeframe would likely be Sep 9-11

We'll keep watch, and and it is recommended you should you.

Additionally an area in the southwest Gulf is worth watching with a 30% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

{{StormCarib}}


{{StormLinks|Irma|11|11|2017|11|Irma}}

{{StormLinks|94L|94|12|2017|94|94L (East Atlantic Wave)}}

{{StormLinks|95L|95|13|2017|95|95L (Bay of Campeche)}}


{{HoustonStormEventLinks}}

{{LakeCharlesMedia}}

{{NorthGulfRadar}}

{{TexasGulfRadar}}

Harvey Related flhurricane recordings



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 10:29 AM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

Dvorak numbers on Irma are going up quickly, at this rate it'll likely be a Major hurricane later tonight or tomorrow, it's already a hurricane going by those numbers.

Irma's set up to become a large (Area wise) hurricane which could indicate lesser winds (not always) in the long run, but a real storm surge generator.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 10:36 AM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

Eye just showed up on Satellite, very small core, large convection area.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 10:52 AM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

Jumps from TS to 100MPH hurricane, wow.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 31 2017 06:21 PM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

Now at 115MPH Category 3.

IR loop:



M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 01 2017 05:17 PM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

It looks as though Irma has bounced back from the EWR or influx of dry air. The last couple sat pictures look beautiful. The eye looks huge. The NHC discussion says 15 miles, It seems to be much larger than that. Beautiful structure.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:27 AM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

Irma is looking a little more ragged right now due to a little bit of dry air intrusion and it is moving WSW, it's a bit south of the 0z EPS model guidance so shifts may occur. I think the models are overdoing intensity in the long range, next up are the Caribbean islands which will likely see some of Irma (how much depends on the exact track, we could get watches starting late today or tomorrow)

Conditions are expected to get better for development east of the Bahamas, where the official forecast takes it very close to the Turks and Caicos at the end of the 5 day period, at this rate parts of the US may be in the cone starting Late Tuesday or Wednesday. Direct affects wouldn't likely be until Sunday or Monday (10-11thh), which means any final preps probably Friday or Saturday depending on where it goes.

Beyond 5 days it is still too soon to tell, the forecast lounge has more speculation and odds.


Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:18 PM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

Ahh I see the forcasts are going south. I truly believe that significant low to the N/N/W is clearing a trough south through the stream.

It looks like It's going to draw it at least part into Cuba. At the very least the track has flattened out going W more than N//W. There could be enough strength to put it over Florida and into the Gulf. :/


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:48 AM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

94L (The east Atlantic wave) is now being tracked.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:58 AM
Re: Watching Irma in the East Atlantic

95L Bay of Campeche now also being tracked. (Pulled back for now)

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:32 AM
Re: Irma Recon Begins in Earnest. Also Watching SW Gulf Low and E Atl Wave

Recon this morning has found Irma with pressures about 10 to 15mb lower than last night's mission. Also that yet another outer eyewall is forming. The frequency with which Irma undergoes eyewall replacement cycles will likely tend to stair-step her intensity, but probably not so much as to preclude a general increase, over time, and Irma will likely be at least a Cat 4 within 36 hours, which is the official NHC forecast.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:44 AM
Re: Irma Recon Begins in Earnest. Also Watching SW Gulf Low and E Atl Wave

Irma will most likely move into the GOM as the trend continues... we will have a decent idea by the 00z runs tonight with the additional data (but that usually doesn't change things to much). Couple questions in the near term is who gets a direct hit in the Lessar Antilles... St Maarten, Tortola, Antigua and St Thomas look to have a direct path impact.. and NE PR near San Juan and to its east.. then Turks. Question by Thurs will this hit Cuba on Friday or stay just north of it. Too early to speculate that far even with the models since today is Monday.. but again each day will give us a better idea. GOM chance seem realistic.. we have seen this many times where the models shift west on a more westward moving system before a turn to the north in days 5-7. I know we don't guess here,(especially after 5 days) but I would give the GOM a 50% Florida 30% and east of Florida 20% out of 100% as of right now.


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