cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 01:40 PM
Severe Very Large Cat 5 Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Closer to US

5:30AM EDT 07 September 2017 Update
Irma weakened a bit overnight, with a slightly ragged eye, but is still a high-end category 5 hurricane. She may fluctuate in intensity over the next few days, Hispaniloa may impact some of the inflow, but water temperatures are more than warm enough for it to recover.

Watches for South Florida and the Keys will probably go up at 11AM. See the NHC Discussion for more, also.

Irma Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.



Elsewhere, Katia has warnings up along the Mexican coastline for landfall very late Tomorrow. Those in the area should prepare for flooding rains, strong winds and protect life and property.

Jose is tracking in the Open Atlantic behind Irma and may get close to the easternmost Islands just impacted by her. Additionally, Jose needs to be watched later to see if it loops back towards the US.

11PM EDT 06 September 2017 Update
IRMA HAS JUST SET A WORLD RECORD

Quote:

Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966). Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.



Cr: Phil Klotzbach

It goes without saying that we are in uncharted territory.

Elsewhere, both Hurricane Jose and Katia have strengthened further, 85 MPH and 80 MPH, respectively. There is a chance either or both will also become Majors.

5PM EDT 06 September 2017 Update

Jose AND Katia were both upgraded to a hurricane at 5PM

For Katia:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of the state of Veracruz from Tuxpan to Laguna Verde.

For Irma:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.


11:30AM EDT 06 September 2017 Update

Irma has moved over St. Maarten and Barbuda overnight and is approaching the British Virgin islands this morning, the forecast track has shifted right for an east coast run up Florida, east or on the euro ensembles, west of the GFS. The hurricane itself is moving or wobbling to the south, which may bring more impact to the US VI and Puerto Rico than previously forecast.

Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for for the coast of Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.

The government of France has discontinued all warnings for Guadeloupe.

The government of Antigua has discontinued all warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

Oh and Tropical Storm Katia forms in the Gulf, headed toward Mexico.

8:30PM EDT 05 September 2017 Update


New Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.


5PM EDT 05 September 2017 Update
TD#13 Forms in Bay of Campeche likely to Impact Mexico, Jose in Central Atlantic.

2PM EDT 05 September 2017 Update
Recon finds pressure of 926mb, 185mph winds.

8AM EDT 05 September 2017 Update
Hurricane hunters found Irma has strengthened into a category 5 storm, with sustained winds now at 175 MPH and a pressure down to 929mb.

New Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.

5AM EDT 05 September 2017 Update



The last late night recon missions into Irma left a few hours ago finding winds supporting mid-range Category 4. Since then, the satellite appearance of Irma has improved even more, with satellite-based intensity estimates coming in closer to or at Cat 5. NHC will want a little more confirmation and maybe at least one or two new complete recon passes before making such a call. A new mission is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma shortly. There is a good chance that it will find Irma a Cat 5, or very close to it.

The bottom line - Irma is an extremely dangerous hurricane. Those within her 24 hour path should now be rushing life-saving preparations to completion. Surge prone low lying areas will likely become inundated. Even well built structures may sustain crippling damage from the wind and be uninhabitable for weeks, or longer.

-Ciel



Hurricane Irma is the second Major Hurricane of 2017 in the Atlantic basin to directly threaten large numbers of people, possibly including here in the United States. After a record hiatus of US landfalls, a return to the mean, or even beyond, may be underway, and residents inside the 3 and 5 day NHC cones are urged to take this very seriously, and begin preparing for impacts - potentially catastrophic. It's time to pay extra close attention to this one.

There is still a considerably greater than normal uncertainty in the Hurricane Irma track after Day 5. Florida should watch closely.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 11AM AST:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

We are also keeping a close eye on what could become future Jose and maybe also future Katia: (94L in the central Tropical Atlantic southeast of Irma and a persistent trof in the SW Gulf of Mexico).

Go beyond the cone! Read and share educated best guesses on these systems in our Lounges. Grab a double shot of your favorite beverage (you might need it) and join us for forecasts and model discussions beyond 72 hours and more in the Lounge!

Huricane Irma Forecast Lounge , SW Gulf Low Lounge, Invest 94L Lounge


{{StormCarib}}

Port St Maarten Webcam

Eastern Caribbean Radar Recording for Irma


{{YouTube|hG-GpHPkBoM}}
Port Gustavia, St. Barth Live Stream Camera Flhurricane time lapse recording of this camera

{{StormLinks|Irma|11|11|2017|11|Irma}}

{{StormLinks|Jose|12|12|2017|12|Jose}}

{{StormLinks|Katia|13|13|2017|13|Katia}}



{{HoustonStormEventLinks}}

{{LakeCharlesMedia}}

{{NorthGulfRadar}}

{{TexasGulfRadar}}

Harvey Related flhurricane recordings


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 02:54 PM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More

Recon found 130mph winds along the northeastern side of Irma, it may be heading for Cat 4 status later today.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 03:42 PM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More

Turned on the radar Recording for the Eastern Caribbean http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?295 western band showing up on radar.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:08 PM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More

New ERC attempting to get underway. Great image below from Tropical Tidbits shows the double wind peaks. Also possible that Irma is still experiencing a little shear with a slight displacement of the pressure/wind minimums.




MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:04 PM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More

8pm advisory is 140mph, but recon is finding a few spots of 135-137knot winds (aka 150-155mph) already too.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:23 PM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More

Radar loop from tonight's hurricane hunter flight:

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cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:46 AM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:49 AM
Re: Peak of the Season Arriving with Major Hurricane Irma, 94L & More



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:17 AM
Re: 175 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger


New Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:58 AM
Re: 175 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Now @ 180 MPH with 931mb of pressure. Flhurricane is being hit hard with traffic the likes it hasn't seen in years, apologies if things break or the site is slow, we're actively tweaking things to avoid it.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 11:03 AM
Re: 175 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger



scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2017 11:18 AM
Re: 175 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Lets HOPE Irma gets north of St Maarten... Huge Cruise Ship Port (even though none will be there today-tomorrow...Such a beautiful Island... but all the islands Antigua, St Barts are in direct paths tonight... then tomorrow Tortola and St Thomas. Eastern PR will feel Hurricane Force winds at times..but current 36-48hr path should keep the core of the hurricane to its NE... (lets hope)

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 11:52 AM
Re: 180 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 05:12 PM
Re: 180 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Hurricane Warnings up for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic.

Winds 185MPH with gusts to 225MPH
29 mile wide eye.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 05:55 PM
Re: 180 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

916mb is the last recon pass

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:06 PM
Re: 180 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

added

{{YouTube|hG-GpHPkBoM}}
Port Gustavia, St. Barth Live Stream Camera Flhurricane time lapse recording of this camera

{{YouTube|IjGdi7z_B4U}}
Soggy Dollar Bar, White Bay in British VI Live Stream Camera Flhurricane time lapse recording of this camera

also http://www.portstmaartenwebcam.com/ for the Port St. Maarten Webcam


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:52 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Irma passed over Barbuda overnight, with the island in the eye for a while. The strongest portion of the eyewall did not hit, but extremely strong winds still occurred, with the anemometer failing at 118 MPH sustained 2-min avg.



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 07:08 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:05 PM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Long term San Juan radar recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?299

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:21 PM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:34 PM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

From Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State

Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap (through September 6 at 4pm EDT)
Note: Lifetime refers to storm lifetime to date Intensity Measures

-185 mph lifetime max winds โ€“tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980

-185 mph max winds for 24 hours โ€“ the longest an Atlantic hurricane has maintained that intensity on record. The only other tropical cyclone around the globe to maintain that intensity for 24 hours in satellite era (since 1966) was Haiyan (2013) in the N W Pacific. Read more (PDF)...


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:39 PM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:38 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Irma weakened a bit overnight, with s slightly more ragged eye, but is still a category 5 hurricane, it may fluctuate in intensity over the next few days, Hispaniloa may impact some of the inflow, but water temperatures are more than warm enough for it to recover. Watches for South Florida and the Keys will probably go up at 11AM. See the NHC Discussion for more, also.

Jumaduke
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:58 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

The NHS track has been virtually unchanged since the 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday night. I do notice, however, that they've predicted that her intensity will reduce (from a Cat3 to a Cat1 upon Georgia landfall). Doesn't this seem contraindicated by the fact that her eye is going to have good access to open water during most of her scrape up the Florida coastline? I also notice that some of the other models (UKM and NVGM, specifically) have swung her track further West, with her eye passing over Key West and making landfall at Naples. Last night the majority of the models were tracking almost identically to NHS. Is there a possibility that she'll travel further West? Predictors seemed so much more sure of her path last night.

MarkFSU
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 06:02 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Mike, any thoughts on why the models split again last night? With the hurricane moving quickly at 17 mph, does that increase the chances of a Florida landfall?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:34 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Faster movemnt means less time for the break in the ridge to occur, so it's shifting west, I think that's why the UK and Euro are further west than the GFS ones. Ultimately it's going to be razor close, or it shifts way further west than anticipated, the NHC's discussion for Irma this morning describes the model situation pretty well, and I think the official track is pretty good.

Recon is finding lower pressures again (919) which is a bit surprising, Hispaniola may have less of an affect than I thought it would.


MarkFSU
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:51 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

I am surprised as well, I thought the mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the inflow from the south, but so far it has not.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:53 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

If she picks up speed, we may see a shift west in the models and the NHC track at the 1100 update.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:57 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Quote:


I am surprised as well, I thought the mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the inflow from the south, but so far it has not.




Hispaniola (and mountainous islands in general) tend to not significantly disrupt tropical cyclones that do not pass mostly, let alone directly, over them. This is especially true of larger TCs and Irma is massive.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:13 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Quote:

The NHS track has been virtually unchanged since the 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday night. I do notice, however, that they've predicted that her intensity will reduce (from a Cat3 to a Cat1 upon Georgia landfall)




If you are referring to NHC (?) .. be sure to always check the time stamps and positions when comparing Advisories. The NHC comparison you are curious about (between last night's 8pm and this morning's 5am) is hours apart, with the earlier Advisory still over water, and 5AM this morning further north - over land - because more time has passed.

5PM SEP 6 (Which would have carried over to 8pm)
120H 11/1800Z 31.0N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

5AM SEP 7
120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

One location is still over water at 31.0N and the other over land at 33.0N.


Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:19 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

It has also taken a jog to the NW. She has a good distance between herself and the DR and looks "tighter" than 6 hours ago. As a side note, Jose looks on deck according to the Euro - but we'll take one disaster at a time.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:50 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Careful on the wobbles, Recon is currently showing a true eyewall replacement cycle happening now, with a corresponding windfield expansion. I know every jog is important, but it needs to trend for several frames to make a real difference.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:16 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Wanted to mention Jose again, Jose will likely need Hurricane watches up for the NE Caribbean (Again!) for Jose later today. That would mean hurricane watches in three areas for three different hurricanes at once.

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:45 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

Is it my imagine, or just something with my PC that I know I saw a 10:00 am update on the NOAA site and now it is gone. On my iPhone too.

Maybe I am getting Irma Crazy?

Edit: I guess the update will be at 11:00. I am losing my mind...


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:52 AM
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger

3-6hr turn to almost NW was expected in most models from 8am-2pm including the GFS before a bend back WNW or even just north of due west on Friday-Saturday morning


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