MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:58 AM
Irma Riding Inland, Weakening

7PM EDT 10 September Update
Irma is now down to a category 2 and weakening as it pulling dried air from the west in and land interaction, as it does, some strong gusts will still occur to the east, and storm surge flooding will still likely occur on both coasts (but the extremes in the warnings are less likely in most areas)

Irma is riding just east of I-75 up the west coast of the state. Tornadoes, rain, strong wind, and flooding/surge will be issues through the night.

8:30AM EDT 10 September Update
Irma's intensification has leveled off at 'just' Category Four this morning. What this means for people in her path is that this will be devastating and efforts to protect life should be rushed to completion.

2:30AM EDT 10 September Update
Irma has definitively embarked on a NW track, and at a slightly faster speed. Extracting herself from the remaining land interaction of Cuba and passing over exceptionally warm waters has proven enough to re-intensify into a very severe and large Category Four Major Hurricane.

Recon, satellite and radar data supports modeling that even more intensification may be underway. In fact, Rapid Intensification is not out of the question, and Irma may become a large Category Five before landfall.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING
Quote:


STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.



This is a truly catastrophic-level hurricane event. Preps to protect life should be rushed to completion. Property can be replaced!
RUN FROM THE WATER! HIDE FROM THE WIND!
-Ciel


5PM EDT 8 September Update
EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT DAYBREAK...

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from the Volusia/BrevardCounty Line northward to the South Santee River.

The Hurricane Watch west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River.


6:30AM EDT 8 September Update
Some slight good news this morning (for Florida) is that the system has had land interaction with Cuba (Bad for Cuba) that has brought the pressure back up, and weakened Irma a bit, but not very substantially, (still a major hurricane) and the system is expected to move back north over warmer water in fairly short order.

The official track shifted slightly west, but still has a large enough windfield to envelop most of the state in hurricane force winds, and storm surge momentum that will raise the ocean level along the coasts, check the Inundation Maps for a forecast for those right along the coast.

Watches and warnings have creeped up north also,

The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning are extended northward along the Florida West coast from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka.

The Hurricane Warning is extended northward along the Florida East coast to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

At this point pay attention to local officials and media for the most up to date info, and if you are in the warning area you have today to prepare (less than that the further south you are)

Tomorrow will be the worst day for Irma for most folks.

11PM EDT 8 September Update
Hurricane Katia just made landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico. Irma reached Category 5 and clipped Cuba.



The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward on the east coast of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west coast of Florida to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward on the east coast of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west coast of Florida to Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward on the west coast of Florida to Suwanee River.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward on the east coast of Florida to Fernandina Beach and on the west coast of Florida to Indian Pass.

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch for the province of Matanzas to a Hurricane Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Guantanamo have been discontinued.

8PM EDT 8 September Update
Irma's track remains a little west of yesterday, and is even now scraping Cuba, which is increasingly at risk itself of more serious impacts. Both GFS & ECMWF have honed in to landfall on the Lower Keys and head up from there across Tampa. Latest recon data supports idea that landfall may easily occur at Cat 5. This is a monster and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion and everyone should evacuate when and where ordered to do so.

Elsewhere, Katia is close to making landfall in eastern Mexico (Cat 2) and Hurricane Warnings are up for high-end Cat 4 Jose for some of the very same portions of the Leeward Islands just ravaged by Irma, like Barbuda.
-Ciel

1PM EDT 8 September Update

Irma's track shifts slightly west again, raising the threat of storm surge on the west coast, even with the shift hurricane force winds will reach all the way to the east coast of Florida. Minor track shifts, either direction, may still occur. It is forecast to be category 5 at Keys landfall.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line.

11AM EDT 8 September Update
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to Venice.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the west coast of Florida to Anclote River (Tarpon Springs).

Jose also increases to cat 4, Katia cat 2.

6AM EDT 8 September Update
Hurricane Irma moves over the Southeastern Bahamas, generally west northwest, currently located just south of Crooked Island. it has weakened some due a large eyewall replacement cycle going on, which results in a larger windfield and a temporary disruption in the wind speed, after this the hurricane force winds will cover a larger area as it moves toward Cuba. Some forecast models take it briefly over Cuba, which could weaken it a bit more before the turn north and over the Keys and South Florida.

Hurricane watches and warnings have not changed at the 5AM advisory, but the watches/warnings are likely to creep up north at the 11AM advisory today.



Slightly better news for Jose as the track has shifted north away from the Islands that were most recently hit by Irma, but they are still in the cone and watches/warnings remain there.

Hurricane Katia in the Bay of Campeche is creeping extremely slowly to the west southwest toward Mexico, where warnings remain.

During a landfalling hurricane information becomes very voluminous and difficult to keep track of, please listen to local officials and media for information for your particular area.

Websites such as this one are good tools to help, but no replacement for the official sources and local EM and law enforcement.

Please stay safe and use the next day (or two depending) to prepare for the storm.

If you do leave, beware traffic levels will be in uncharted waters leaving Florida today and tomorrow, consider state highways and other alternate roads beyond the sea of cars on the turnpike and northbound interstates. Also be mindful of gas and potential temporary shortages.

There are links to some media sources below on the main flhurricane page to help, and floridadisaster.org is a good launching point for Florida specific Emergency management.

11PM EDT 7 September Update
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to Venice.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

Irma Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.

Original Update
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,including the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

The government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning to Villa Clara province.

Updates here as necessary:

Additionally Hurricane Watches were issued for Hurricane Jose for the northeastern Leeward Islands (Same ones that Irma passed by)..... really.

{{StormLinks|Irma|11|11|2017|11|Irma}}

Storm Surge Inundation Map

Florida
Florida State Emergency Management - Floridadisaster.org
Evacuation Maps

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

{{NortheastGulfRadar}}

{{SouthFloridaMedia}}

{{EastCentralFloridaMedia}}

{{TampaMedia}}

{{JaxMedia}}

{{FloridaPowerOutage}}

Georgia/Carolinas

{{EastGeorgiaMedia}}

{{MidAtlanticRadar}}

Other Active Storms

{{StormLinks|Jose|12|12|2017|12|Jose}}

{{StormLinks|Katia|13|13|2017|13|Katia}}


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

Do we have a bahamas radar loop we can do from Nassau or something better from Cuba than the 3hr loop? I don't know why we don't have 1 in Grand Turk! It's 2017!!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 03:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

No internet available radars in the Bahamas (still)


This is a great GOES-16 floater for Irma though
IR http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

VIS http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-100



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

Jose now up to cat 3, Irma track shifts west.

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

11 States in the Cone
  • Florida
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • South Carolina
  • Tennessee
  • North Carolina
  • Kentucky
  • Indiana
  • Virginia
  • West Virginia
  • Ohio

And it will expand by next update!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

FYI Updates from me will be sporadic (own prep and a long list of things to get done)

News media links on the front page for more specific info. other threads still active.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:22 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

Quote:

FYI Updates from me will be sporadic (own prep and a long list of things to get done)

News media links on the front page for more specific info. other threads still active.




Get your family and property safe, Mike!! We can hold the fort here!


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Watch Issued for Keys and South Florida

GFS goes back east.. slows down sooner.. on the Oz..

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 01:59 AM
Re: Hurricane Warnings Hurricane Issued Watches issued further North

This fast draw video provides an explanation of storm surge. Storm surge is what officials use when determining who to evacuate. Remember, when officials say it is time to evacuate, go!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 03:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Warnings Hurricane Issued Watches issued further North

Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack driving around setting up remote cameras http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 03:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Warnings Hurricane Issued Watches issued further North

Flhurricane Orlando cam (overlooking Lake Marsha toward Universal Orlando): ttp://ustre.am/1AbwU
Flhurricane Cocoa Cam near lake Poinsette: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/flhurricane-hurricane-streams

Will run until power/internet goes out. Orlando may go down at times.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Irma Friday Morning



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:35 PM
Re: RECORD SETTING IRMA KATIA AND JOSE HONING IN ON LANDFALLS

Recon again finding category 5 winds in Irma. Storm surge levels will likely be unreal.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:11 PM
Re: Katia Makes Landfall in Mexico, Irma Clips Cuba now Cat 5

NHC - Irma Making Landfall On the Camaguey Archipelago of Cuba as a Category 5 Hurricane.

1st Cat. 5 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 1924. - Phil Klotzbach


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:46 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Hurricane Irma currently hitting hard the north coast of Cuba per Jax NWS.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:01 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Lots of various radar and webcam recordings for the Keys up,
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php Will run as long as they stay up.

key West long range radar recording: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?319


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:08 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Here are a couple webcams I have set up:

Clearwater Beach Cam


49th Street South in Gulfport, FL

I'll set up another one later today or tonight.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 09 2017 03:48 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Busy day here, but two live streams up, from my place behind Universal Orlando
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/AsZwUGw5jPj

Cocoa/Lake poinsette from John C. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/flhurricane-hurricane-streams

keys webcams:

Marathon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI
Mallory Square https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUwIkt56IIQ
Southern Most Beach Resort https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmI
Key West Seaport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYEXQdUFha8
2 Friends Roof https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc<br />
<hr /></blockquote><font class="post">

others:
Dania Beach https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j--PE3D1Kmw


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:07 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba



scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:26 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Irma is going to turn N.. but question is.. when? 2hrs? 8 hrs? from now? then will it go N or NNW as it gets north of Key west.. and will it be just west of KeyWest or just east?.. If it goes west of KeyWest... I think it will stay offshore Ft Myers and probably Clearwater all the way up to Apolachacola by Monday morning.. if it goes east.. then it will make landfall or brush Sanibel,Island-Venice (inland)-Bradenton-St Pete and exit just north of New Port Richie..that's if the turn NNW doesn't happen till after midnight

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:41 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Irma has stalled in the current position, turn likely imminent.

rwjaco19
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:45 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

I thought it looked like a stall on radar just off the coast of Cuba? Looks like she's gearing up for the journey north. Still expecting a landfall around Port Charlotte/Manasota Key?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:02 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Multiple Keys video streams on one page https://zeryl.github.io/irma.html

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:15 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Just a thought.
Tampa has always feared a storm moving East into Tampa Bay and pushing a storm surge.

Irma on present NHC Track would likely force some of Tampa Bay to the west before a wind reversal would fill it back up after the Storm passes.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:16 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Any idea on how this stall will effect the future track?

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:54 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Quote:

Any idea on how this stall will effect the future track?





It is now moving NNW per radar how that effects it no idea. Praying for everyone in florida there has to be some good news i hope and pray


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 10:43 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Still WNW.. since 8pm .3W .2N

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 06:42 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Irma's eye is 26 miles from Cudjoe Key, moving NNW.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 10 2017 08:44 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Just got back up, appears it's about to make landfall right now. Middle/Lower keys cell service went out a few minutes ago also. Water being pulled offshore along the west coast of Florida right now.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 09:24 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Jogged NNE, I'd call land fall at Cudjoe Key, its about dead center of the eye now.

edit the NHC called same thing at 9:10AM... my eyes were glued to the radar and never refreshed the NOAA app


MarkFSU
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 09:28 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Quote:

Jogged NNE, I'd call land fall at Cudjoe Key, its about dead center of the eye now



NHC had already called landfall there.

"...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES"


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:53 AM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Went from a near 12 year major hurricane drought to 2 within a few weeks.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 02:00 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Irma getting really close to Marco Island, 25 miles south.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 02:48 PM
Re: Irma Continues to Rake just along the North Shore of Cuba

Marco Island is in the eyewall, mobile homes are failing via Jeff's periscope feed.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 10 2017 03:33 PM
Re: MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA HEADING NNW

Report of 130 MPH gust on Marco.

From NWS - EXTREME WIND WARNING
Quote:

Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
Western Collier County in southwestern Florida...
West central Hendry County in southern Florida...

* Until 530 PM EDT

* At 326 PM EDT, surface observations indicated extreme winds of
over 120 mph, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Irma, were
moving onshore over Marco Island, or near Naples, moving north at
15 mph.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation!

* Locations impacted include...
Naples, Marco Island, Chokoloskee, Ave Maria and Golden Gate
Estates.




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:07 PM
Re: MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA HEADING NNW



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 11 2017 09:32 AM
Re: MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA HEADING NNW

The St. Johns river in Jacksonville is seeing record surge levels, 2ft above the record so far.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 12 2017 02:37 AM
Re: Irma Riding Inland, Weakening




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