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9AM EDT 23 September 2017 Update Maria is moving away from the Bahamas, but has expanded a bit in size, it is forecast to move generally north to north northwest over the next few days and be at its closest approach to Cape Hatteras on Wednesday, landfall is not expected, but portions of the outer banks may see some outer effects of Maria. Those along the coast in North Carolina and northward should continue to watch Maria, but direct landfall is not expected. Its too soon to tell how much impact may occur, however. 6AM EDT 22 September 2017 Update From here all the models, save the CMC, take Maria out to sea. With Wednesday being the key day for any potential surprises based on that. However, with so much going against it it appears out to sea remains the most likely scenario. Maria is passing just to the east of the Turks and Caicos today, close enough for them to feel many of the affects. Beyond that North Carolina and Bermuda will want to keep an eye on it, but it appears neither will see direct impacts (other than heavy surf, minor coastal flooding, and rip currents) 8PM EDT 20 September 2017 Update Maria's eye is clearing out again. The mountains of Puerto Rico did disrupt it, but did not destroy it. Maria is likely to restrengthen some (probably not to cat 5 again as it'll be going over the waters stirred up by Irma), and may get very close or the western side to the Turks and Caicos, but the NHC's track seems good. She's very likely to stay well east of Florida. Puerto Rico was absolutely devastated though, and it's still raining in parts that flooded (and flooded well beyond record flood levels) 1:15PM EDT 20 September 2017 Update The center of Hurricane Maria is starting to exit PR this afternoon, but horrendous flooding rain, surge and brutal wind gusts will continue for hours yet to come - with inland flooding, rock and mudslides possibly lingering well beyond this week. Initial recon data suggests that interaction with mountainous Puerto Rico has significantly diminished the hurricane, with minimum pressure now up to an extrapolated low 960s range, but this disruption is forecast to give way by tonight, with most models forecasting restrengthening, yet again, as Maria once again encounters a favorable to very favorable environment for intensification. A coming brush with a Cat 4 or even 5 Maria for the Turks & Caicos can not be ruled out. 7:15AM EDT 20 September 2017 Update Maria makes landfall near Yabucoa, PR and is over the island now. Power, Communication, radar and more are out in much of the eastern half of the Island. 155mph was the official windspeed, making it a category 4 (just under 5) at landfall. 7:00PM EDT 19 September 2017 Update Recon recently reported 909mb pressure with 175mph winds. The pressure makes this the #10 strongest (by pressure) ever recorded hurricane in the Atlantic basin. 2:30PM EDT 19 September 2017 Update Quote: After the temporary disruption and loss of Category 5 status from having gone directly over the tall island nation of Dominca, Hurricane Maria has resumed Rapid Intensification, with recon now finding a minimum central pressure down to 920mb, with maximum sustained winds of about 165 MPH. Continued strengthening is very possible, and Maria could still be a Cat 5 (or potentially even a high-end Five) when she passes over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and that is in fact now reflected in the official NHC forecast. 8:00PM EDT 18 September 2017 Update Maria is now an extremely dangerous, super compact Cat Five Major about to make landfall on Dominica. 5:00PM EDT 18 September 2017 Update Maria is now a compact and violent 130 MPH Cat IV Major - still intensifying - with her center closing in on Dominica. With Maria's continued dramatic strengthening and very supportive conditions for additional strengthening ahead, it is becoming likely that Maria impacts - possibly directly - the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a very high-end Major - possibly even a high-end Five. NHC Quote: Preparations to protect life should now be rushed to completion on the islands of Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique. On Maria's likely track, preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion on the VIs and PR. Failure to take advantage of well-built hurricane shelters will almost certainly result in injury or even death. HURRICANE MARIA Recon has found that Maria is now a Hurricane. Conditions are alarmingly favorable that the cyclone could be or will soon be undergoing Rapid Intensification, and it is likely that Maria will be yet another very serious Major while on a trajectory that could take it directly over several of the islands recently impacted to greater or lesser degrees by Irma. SUMMARY OF MARIA WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Quote: For in-depth Maria model talk and more beyond the cone with us in the HURRICANE Maria Lounge HURRICANE JOSE Hurricane Jose continues its track to the north, with a bend to the northeast, then east, and southeast expected over the next several days. Should Jose continue on as forecast, the strongest impacts to the Northeast US may be kept offshore - however, dangerous swells generated by Jose are already affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. Dangerous surf and rip currents should be expected for days to come in these locations. In addition, Jose is forecast produce heavy rain totals over eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Any deviation to the left of NHC's track would increase the likelihood that even greater impacts to the US coast would likely be experienced. SUMMARY OF JOSE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Quote: For in-depth Jose model talk and more join us in the HURRICANE Jose Lounge {{StormLinks|Maria|15|15|2017|15|Maria}} {{StormCarib}} {{StormLinks|Jose|12|12|2017|12|Jose}} {{NERadar}} {{StormLinks|Lee|14|14|2017|14|Lee}} {{MidAtlanticRadar}} |
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Barbados radar recording for Maria: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?323 On the current moition it looks like Martinique will get the eye, unless it veers a bit more north. |
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Maria is a much smaller system than Irma was, but the winds are ramping up quickly, Dominica and Martinique may see some of the worst of it first. Recon is still finding it getting stronger, Cat 3 now, and going for 4. |
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From the discussion, Maria has developed a pinhole eye, which is capable of ramping up very quickly, but is also focusing the wind on a very small area at the same time, any land area which is goes over will likely be devastated. Official 5pm has it at a cat 4, Dvorak satellite estimates have a higher windspeed than 130mph,. though. (Raw T numbers are at 7.1 which is roughly 165MPH) |
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7.2-7.4 T numbers from dvorak in the Goes-16 imagery, which is about 170mph based on satellite estimates. Recon is en route to get accurate readings. |
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Think the peninsula is numb after Irma. Five days w/o power here in N. Fla. Horrible for PR, but confident in the poleward turn. Question: doesn't the organization and very compact eye/center imply an even larger hurricane to come? |
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Quote: A small eye is not a stable situation for a hurricane, but as of yet, there aren't any outer bands showing enough wrap-around to suggest an ERC is close to imminent. As such, in the near term, Maria may intensify into a mega-tight Cat 5, or even high-end 5. Assuming a replacement cycle begins at some point, the wind field would expand, and the process would likely repeat itself. |
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Recon report 925mb 160mph winds (SFMR) |
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In-situ Maria obs on Dominica Weather Underground J73WA Weather Station IXXPORTS2 |
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Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH (260 KM/H). The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory package. SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES |
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Today will be the last day for preparations in the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico, use it wisely. |
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Maria is right now passing directly over this NOAA buoy Station 42060 - Caribbean Valley - 63 NM WSW of Montserrat |
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st croix webcams: {{{YouTube|3Q2CzQclKQc}}} flhurricane recording of sand castle on the beach (St Croix) http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?327 San Juan Long range radar recording: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?326 |
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Recon just found a pressure of 916mb, which is approaching Irma's minimum of (914) |
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Last recon has Maria at 910mb (now it top 10 lowest pressures for the Atlantic) and approx 175mph winds. Godspeed St. Croix and Puerto Rico. |
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Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84) |
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Recon's most recent dropsonde caught a 168 knot (193mph) wind, so 8pm may have higher wnds than 175 in the position update. |
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NWS Radar in San Juan was taken out around 6:30 AM ET which is pretty close to the time of land fall on the other side of the island. A family member near San Juan is giving me reports. The conditions are severe at the moment. He is in a concrete structure and the winds are shaking it. |
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The eye of Maria shifted west over the middle of the island, now seems to be bringing the eyewall to ALL of Puerto rico. Comms are out in a lot of the areas, raindfall rates of 5-8 inches/hour. Wind, rain, and surge damage is widespread. It'll take a while to get a good idea exactly what happened. |
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Guyama, PR - From a few hours ago
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Maria's eye is clearing out again, but the mountains of Puerto Rico did disrupt it, but did not destroy it, it's likely to restrengthen some (probably not to cat 5 again as it'll be going over the waters stirred up by Irma) It may get very close or the western side to the Turks and Caicos, but the NHC's track seems good. It's very likely to stay well east of Florida. Puerto Rico was absolutely devistated though, and it's still raining in parts that flooded (and flooded well beyond record flood levels) |
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Last recon pass had Maria up to 962, which means its weakened a bit more, although it appears the windfield has expanded a lot. It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds from here. |
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Most recent recon pass is finding that Maria may be strengthening, with one minute averaged SFMR surface wind values running about 125 MPH, although pressures are still fairly steady to declining only slowly at this time. |