cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 24 2017 01:22 PM
Maria, Lee and What May Be

10PM EDT Update 1 October 2017
There are no active storms in the Atlantic basin. It's about time.

2PM EDT Update 27 September 2017

Maria is beginning to move away from the US and out to sea. Hurricane Lee is now a major hurricane, but will also stay out to sea.

Another area south of Cuba currently is forecast to move north of Cuba and deepen, either as a frontal or possibly subtropical low, which will likely bring rain to South Florida and central Florida, and make it generally windy over the weekend, then it likely will move back to the west over Central Florida. How strong it gets is up in the air, but it is something to watch closely over the next few days.

There's a 20% chance it develops over the next 5 days right now, so it likely will just bring rain and some wind.



{{StormLinks|90L|90|16|2017|90|90L West Carib Low}}

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

Original Update


There will never be another hurricane named Maria, and while a beautiful name and a gorgeous cyclone, it's safe to say that 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone 15L "Maria" will not be missed.

Maria is not done yet, and interests along the east coast need to pay very close attention over the next few days, as even if Maria does not come ashore along or near the Outer Banks (increasingly possible - in fact with many of the model ensembles showing this) her effects are and will still be felt in the form of dangerous rip currents, high swells and blustery wind and rain. Stay tuned, and ready to prepare to take more action as her Cone of Uncertainty has continued to include the OBX, and may still shift west.

Elsewhere, Lee, having gone from TD to Tropical Storm, to just a remnant, is now a very powerful, very compact hurricane, conservatively estimated to have 90 MPH maximum sustained winds at the time of this post, making Lee the 8th Hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This one will probably stay well at out sea, but may have some impact on Maria's steering currents, as it is plenty strong to impact the other features in that region, despite the small size. In fact, it would not be shocking to see Lee become one of the Majors. Without recon going all the way out there to sample him, unless he should start to threaten land of course, we would have to rely mostly on satellite estimates to make this determination. We have the technology...

Looking ahead to next week, solid models are already honing in on increasing potential for new tropical cyclone formations. The first place to find out if we have identified a specific feature or Invest worth tracking will be in the 2017 Forecast Lounge , and we hope you will also join us there.

{{StormLinks|Maria|15|15|2017|15|Maria}}
{{StormCarib}}

{{StormLinks|Lee|14|14|2017|14|Lee}}
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 28 2017 06:43 AM
Re: Maria, Lee and What May Be

The System south of Cuba is not currently an invest yet, but the chances for development are up to 40%. It may never fully develop into a tropical or subtropical system, but it may ramp up some east of Cape Canaveral this weekend then drift back west over Florida, which means a rainy weekend for parts of Florida and maybe some gust winds along the east coast.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 28 2017 03:36 PM
Re: Maria, Lee and What May Be

Now invest 99L. I think it should make it to TS before shear sets in, and models are still vague. I fear that at some point something of significance will come out of the western Caribbean before all is said and done this season. Hope I am wrong, but nothing definitive showing up on the models yet.

Keith B
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 28 2017 04:26 PM
Re: Maria, Lee and What May Be

I am not sure if any one has posted this web site, windy. I learned about this from John N4JTK as he was watching Irma come through FL. Windy

Windy (ECMFW 9KM) was something forming off the coast of Nicaragua on 10/1 and then moves it North.

Yes, something is in the brew south of FL again and is forecast to be off the east FL coast.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

..Increasing rain chances Friday as low pressure forms near the
Florida east coast...

...An extended period of breezy to windy onshore flow and showery
conditions will continue well into next week...

Sat-Sun...
The low pressure off the Atlantic coast of Florida will advance
northward hugging the Florida coastline, with the potential for
tropical development through the weekend. Saturday, the low stalls
out offshore of Jacksonville, before being pushed back westward
across the peninsula. Regardless of any tropical development,
widespread showers and storms will impact through the weekend and
breezy conditions, especially on Sunday. Highest precip chances will
be along the coast and offshore with slightly lower chances inland.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 29 2017 11:16 AM
Re: Maria, Lee and What May Be

The center seems to be consolidating just north of the Keys, so likelihood of anything forming seems to be dropping, however rain chances are going up. If the system manages to stay offshore, chances for development are a little higher.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 29 2017 06:22 PM
Re: Maria, Lee and What May Be

Difficult to figure a center, there's the area near Ft. Myers on radar, and another area currently near Melbourne that could become the center, which you can see on the long radar loop on http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?332

The one closer to Ft. Myers is the one the NHC tagged, but the Melbourne one looks a bit stronger, but it may be broad elliptical area starting around Melbourne and extending southwest toward Ft. Myers



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 29 2017 09:54 PM
Re: Maria, Lee and What May Be

Area near Brevard seems to be winning out, rainfall there at the head of the St. John's is high (where it isn't needed, it's already above flood stage there.) 3-4" so far.

River Gauge on St. Johns:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mlb&gage=cocf1&refresh=true

If it stays just offshore, if anything develops it'll be there. Already a tornado warning earlier tonight in that general area also.



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