cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 04 2017 12:10 AM
Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

111:45PM EDT Update 6 October 2017 Update
Based on recon and satellite, Nate is now a hurricane, and has a good shot for strengthening tomorrow, and possibly by quite a bit.

Those in the hurricane warning area should check local Media and officials for more information, as you will only havbe a portion of the day tomorrow to finish up preparations.

5PM EDT Update 6 October 2017 Update
Tropical storm Nate continues its movement to the north northwest, moving pretty rapidly now with landfall forecast to happen overnight Saturday into Sunday just east of New Orleans, it's a bit stronger this afternoon, approaching hurricane strength, and it has a window tomorrow afternoon to rapidly intensify before landfall, so those along the coast in the Hurricane Warning area should make preparations tomorrow if they aren't done already today, as it will rapidly approach tomorrow night.

Storm surge is forecast to be 5-8 ft in some areas, please consult local officials and media for more information for your exact area. See the Storm Surge Inundation Map also.

Satellite presentation is much better tonight than yesterday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

7:15PM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update

Nate is becoming more of a threat to the north Central Gulf and New Orleans and points to the east in MS/AL. Portions of the Gulf coast may have hurricane watches issued tomorrow, for an eventual Sunday landfall in the north Gulf coast. Although the official forecast is for an 80mph hurricane, there exists a decent possibility (with extremely warm water the storm is passing over) that the storm could rapidly intensify over the Gulf, so do not take this likely in the hurricane watch/warning area and listen to local government officials and media.

8AM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update
TD#16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.

5AM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update

Hurricane watches are now up in Mexico from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico in the Yucatan, as the possibility exists that the system could reach hurricane strength before nearing the Yucatan.

The official forecast track has shifted west to now Include the tip of the Yucatan and later eastern Louisiana to Panama City, centered near the Alabama/Mississippi border. In short the storm or hurricane is likely to impact the North Central Gulf Coast.

11AM EDT Update 4 October 2017 Update
90L is now being Tracked as Tropical Depression 16, a Hurricane is forecast for Sunday in the region of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, centered near Panama City. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nate later today or tomorrow.

The cone ranges from Mississippi to Florida just north of Tampa, currently centered just east of Panama City, FL. The forecast is fairly low confidence so the entire Gulf should be watching as well.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the border with Nicaragua.

6AM EDT Update 4 October 2017 Update
This week we have an area in the Western Caribbean, east of Nicaragua that is starting to organize, currenlty with an 80% chance for development over the next 5 days. This area is being tracked as 90L right now, and could become a depression or storm later today or tomorrow. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.

Beyond that it is likely to impact somewhere along the Gulf, either north Central or Northeastern Gulf, from Louisiana to Florida Potentially as a strong Tropical storm or Hurricane . If it does develop it is likely to become sheared right before a landfall, potentially on or close to Sunday. Those along the Gulf coast would be wise to monitor it, see the forecast lounge for model discussion and speculation.

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is scheduled to fly into the are this afternoon, so chances are National Hurricane Center issued advisories could start to be issued this evening.



There is also another area north of Cuba which is bringing the windy conditions to Florida, but that is much less likely to develop, with a 10% chance for tropical development. Still enough to bring some rain to South Florida and parts of Central Florida. Although much less likely to develop, it is worth watching.

Original Update




Conditions for development from the Caribbean into the Gulf have been on the rise, and over the past few days a substantial Central American Gyre (CAG) has been forming, dramatically enhancing the background vorticity in the region, while also spinning out vortices - a few in the eastern Pacific - and a few much closer to home. The most noteworthy of these being newly-tagged Invest 90L. And it's definitely one to watch.

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is scheduled to fly into 90L Wednesday afternoon, and there are fairly good odds that they could find 90L a tropical cyclone by then.

A second feature, a trough of low pressure located near central Cuba and extending into the Straits of Florida, though not yet Invest tagged, is conservatively given 10% Tropical Cyclogenesis odds by NHC. Conservatively, as conditions overall through the western Atlantic are becoming considerably more favorable for development. This system has already been producing gusts to tropical storm force in squalls. This trof may actually consolidate a little bit east of its current "X" location, and have more time to cook. Keeping watch for a potential upside surprise.

90L Model Discussions and more - 90L Forecast Lounge



{{StormLinks|Nate|16|16|2017|16|Nate}}

{{MSMedia}}

{{LAInfo}}

{{NorthGulfRadar}}

{{NortheastGulfRadar}}


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 05 2017 10:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Nate Forms near Nicaragua

For Nate, This type of setup usually translates to a very weak western side and a really strong eastern side, especially factoring in the additive for the east and negative on the west impact of the fast forward movement toward windspeed. Water vapor satellite is probably the best shear indicator in the short term.

Tomorrow is the day to watch to see how organized it gets, while over the waters of the West Caribbean north of Honduras, if it manages to take advantage of the warm water there and get organized, you could see it rapidly intensify at times, and then possibly get sheared up a bit in the north Gulf, but not quickly enough to lessen impacts. Since it'll be moving quickly north in the Gulf, the east side will likely see the worst (by far). How strong depends on how much it evades shear and tomorrow.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Oct 06 2017 11:25 PM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

Right after the advisory recon is finding indications that Nate may be a hurricane now, the cloud tops are very cold, and there's a better than 50/50 shot that it'll rapidly intensify tomorrow. Those in the warning area, I hope you prepared.

kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Oct 06 2017 11:41 PM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

This board has been so quiet. Where is everyone? Is it my iPad not showing all the input I look to for knowledge? We have a hurricane, Nate, coming at us and I need you folks. I feel lost. I’ve been a member since 2005. BTW, I no longer live in St. Cloud....I now live on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. I look out my front window and before me is the Gulf!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Oct 06 2017 11:44 PM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

Nate is now a hurricane, those along the warning will need to make any last minute preparations, now since RI seems likely, it could be a cat 2 (or even 3) at landfall. You will have about 2/3 of daylight tomorrow to get anything left done before things start going south if you are in the Warning Area. The strongest winds, by far, will be on the east side of the center of the storm.

kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 07 2017 12:04 AM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

I really am perplexed. Our local weather is telling us we could posssibly get a high cat 1 or a chance of a low cat 2. I’m looking at the track and it becomes a hurricane far sooner than the NHC stated it would. Nate hasn’t reached the warm deep waters of the Gulf. I live where only a slab was left from Katrina. A 32’ storm surge hit this area, Pass Christian and Long Beach!

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 07 2017 12:07 AM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

Quote:

Nate hasn’t reached the warm deep waters of the Gulf.




Waters in the NW Caribbean have a much higher TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) than in the Gulf. (See graphic in the Lounge)


HammondLA
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 07 2017 12:10 AM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

I've followed this board for many years. Haven't logged in in so long, I forgot my un/pw so I re-registered. I hope this thing doesn't intensify too badly but at least it's moving fast. This is not good.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Oct 07 2017 12:28 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Yes it's a bit ahead of schedule, but the NHC has been mentioning in the discussions that rapid intensification could occur for the past 2 days or so, and it looks like it may do so. The waters its over are already extremely hot, the Gulf is actually slightly cooler, but not very much so.

Tomorrow when folks wake up after a tropical storm and seeing a hurricane (possibly cat 2 by then) are going to probably do a double take, and it may be a bit wild along the coast.


kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 07 2017 01:07 AM
Re: Nate Nearing the Yucatan

Thanks for responding. You gave me info I didn’t know.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 07 2017 01:14 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Oh Yes. I believe things are going to be hairy and scary tomorrow for those that haven't been paying attention.

I hate to say that but I've seen a good bit of it here. 65 miles inland.


kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 07 2017 01:17 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Thanks, Mike. I’ve looked to this site for guidance since 2005 in Florida. I’ve been through quite a few including Donna. We never evacuated while living in Florida. Moved here in 2010 and did so for Issac. This one concerns me. I have three ceiling fans on the front porch across the street from the Gulf. I don’t think they will be there Monday!

Thanks again ya’ll. I don’t feel so alone now.:)


kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 07 2017 01:25 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

A fellow Mississippian. Yes, you did get hit hard from Katrina. I understand parts of I-10 were flooded.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 07 2017 01:59 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Yes we did. I-10 was a mess. Especially in Louisiana

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.


987mb is roughly equivalent to an 88 mph Hurricane. Nate is still trying to mix down the upper winds to the lower winds apparently.~danielw



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Oct 07 2017 08:14 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

The good news it hasn't strengthened much over that few hours, but the bad news is the rain bands are already starting to come into Louisana. I'm sure a lot of folks haven't prepared as they should have today, so it may be bit of a mess for that in the North Gulf today.

There is still another shot for sterngthening before landfall. The west side of the storm is very weak compared to the east side.

Lots of Nate radars/recordings here: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Nate+%282017%29


new article on front.


kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 07 2017 11:45 AM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Thank you! I wasn’t aware of these webcams. People will be able to see US 90 when it floods. I live on 90. You folks are so knowledgeable! Thanks again for all the work you put into this site!

lcdrgas
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 07 2017 01:15 PM
Re: Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Dropping by to say I respect all of the expert opinions and appreciate the updates. Thanks for keeping it active. Long time since Ivan but seems like a year ago.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center