cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 10 2018 06:52 PM
Hurricanes Chris, Beryl and More



An active month of July continues, with recon now finding Chris a hurricane. Fortunately, nearly all reliable guidance takes Hurricane Chris north-northeast to northeast away from the U.S., but the cyclone could continue to produce some serious rip current risks along the eastern seaboard.

Another Low to the northeast of Chris is weak, and significant development is not expected, although it could have some influence on the path Chris takes.

Southeast of Chris, the low pressure remains of former Hurricane Beryl continue struggling, but a new mid-level center may be trying to form along the northern portion of this trough. Interests in the region should continue to monitor this disturbance closely, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates. NHC odds of 20% within 48 hours/50% within 5 days, and these odds could be going up.

Finally, way, way, way out in the Tropical Atlantic, an active portion of the ITCZ is worth keeping an eye on, as despite Sea Surface Temps running well below average in the Tropical Atlantic so far this seasaon, African Easterly Waves have been busier and friskier than usual.

For Chris model talk and more check out the Hurricane Chris Lounge

For more Beryl model talk, go beyond the cone with us in the Beryl Lounge.


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cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 13 2018 03:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Chris, xBeryl and More



The remnants of Beryl are struggling to organize. At the surface, a circulation exists that is very elongated. Convection is also stretched, from well south to well north of the "center." Odds of redevelopment are going down, but the system does still produce an area of stout winds on its eastern side, and widespread showers and a few storms, which are expected to affect Bermuda tomorrow.

Bermuda Weather Service:
Quote:

The Bermuda-Azores high will maintain fair skies through most of this afternoon. A developing low pressure system to our west may bring 1 or 2 showers late this afternoon and evening. Expect showers with a risk of thunder and increasing winds on Saturday as the low passes west of Bermuda. Conditions begin gradually improving later on Sunday as high pressure nudges back.




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 13 2018 05:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Chris, xBeryl and More

Invest-Beryl Visible image at mid-day Friday July 13




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