| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 01 2018 08:49 AM |
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September Begins Looking Unlike August
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8:30 PM EDT 1 September 2018 Update
Original Entry
After an especially subdued August in the Atlantic, which can occur with the month of September still ending up very active (See 1961 2002 and 2003), we start the new month with conditions for development much different than last, with considerably warmer SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic, and far less inhibiting Saharan dust over the entire North Atlantic. In addition, African Easterly Waves appear to be lining up.
So it goes without saying that because we got a break in August is by no means reason to let ones guard down as we now enter the very climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And as climatology would have it, we are now watching one tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic (Florence) and a tropical wave set to enter what could be a fairly favorable state in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Interesting model outputs on both of these, and with reason to keep watch. You can read and discuss more on the model runs of both in the Forecast Lounge:
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Lounge and also Labor Day Week Gulf Low Forecast Lounge
{{StormLinks|Gordon|7|7|2018|7|Gordon}}
{{StormLinks|Florence|06|6|2018|6|Florence}}
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 01 2018 10:09 AM |
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Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August
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ECMWF TD Probability 24-72 Hours out (Image credit: Weathermodels.com)
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 02 2018 04:21 PM |
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Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August
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NW Caribbean Radar recording to help track 91Ls position.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite...Apes=1535905027
flhurricane recording of it (just started, it will take a bit to fill) http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?372
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 03 2018 11:21 AM |
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Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August
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This morning 7 is approaching Islamorada in the Florida Keys, building, but not quite with a low level circulation quite yet. There is an upper level low to the southwest that is probably slowing that down, but at the same time feeding mid level moisture into it. That low is moving away, and there are hints of west winds on radar and a few stations south of Islamorada. I suspect it'll develop around noon. Conditions are mixed for strengthening, but odds favor it staying a tropical storm before landfall.
The small size of the system does have potential for a round of strengthening tomorrow morning before landfall, so it'll have to be watched closely then, but the NHC's forecast is fairly decent.