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NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF NEW ORLEANS AND BATON ROUGE...

...Central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley...
Extreme rainfall will likely lead to significant and life-threatening flash flooding from coastal LA into southwestern MS and the LA/MS border from Saturday into Sunday.

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-Ciel

10:30 AM CDT 12 July 2019 Update
Barry is doing a run on strengthening today, but it still a fairly sloppy system, although the primary center is not expected to make landfall until tomorrow morning, a strong are of convection currently on south side of the center likely will rotate around and up over the Louisiana coastline and near New Orleans, likely late afternoon or evening. This will bring heavy rain and surge into the areas. Lake Pontchartrain is now under a storm Surge Warning.

10 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update
Tropical Storm Barry has formed


6 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update

Recon failed to find enough orgnaiztion to upgrade the system overnight, but it still remains close to becoming a tropical depression or storm this morning. The track was adjusted slightly in central Louisiana bringing more eastern side rains potentially to New Orleans.

The recon flying right now is finding lower pressures (1003 mb) and a bit more organizatio9n which implies an upgrade may happen sooner than later.

This system is mostly going to be a rain maker, although a hurricane at landfall is still forecast by late tomorrow or Saturday morning. Because the system has not properly formed there is still a great deal o9f uncertainty in he official forecast

Those in the watch area should pay attention to local media and officials for informatio9n specific to their area.

8:30PM CDT July 10, 2019 Update
PTC TWO looks to have completed Tropical Cyclogenesis, or is right on the cusp of doing so, and may easily be a named, and fully tropical, storm, Thursday. This is a particularly dangerous situation, with the risk of extreme inland flooding high. Barry may even cause overtopping Saturday of the Mississippi river levee in the Lower 9th Ward, Algiers and St. Bernard Parish. Even though 92L/proto-Barry is "not (yet) named," preparations along its path to protect life and property should now be underway. Time is limited, and at some point evacuation routes, hotels, shelters, stores and such may be completely inaccessible.

Further discussion and speculation for potential impacts and future track of proto-Barry can be found in the TWO/Barry Forecast Lounge.
-Ciel

Original Post
Potential Tropical Storm 2 Advisory issued, Hurricane forecast for Louisiana Saturday midday.

The idea of potential advisories is to allow for official watches and warnings even before a storm has properly formed if it will impact land areas.

Flooding rainfall has already occurred in New Orleans and more is on the way to potentially the worst flooding there since 1927. More to come soon.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday.

{{StormLinks|Barry|02|2|2019|02|Barry}}

MesoScale Satellite of Barry

Louisiana Power Outage Map


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{{StormLinks|94L|94|3|2019|93|Invest 94L}}

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 15:34Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Tropical Depression: Two (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 14:35:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.77N 88.82W
B. Center Fix Location: 170 statute miles (273 km) to the SSE (154°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33kts (38.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 122 nautical miles (140 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 13:56:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 229° at 41kts (From the SW at 47.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 128 nautical miles (147 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 13:54:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix at 14:47:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 14° at 23kts (From the NNE at 26.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 14:56:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 236m (774ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 241m (791ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 128 nautical miles (147 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 13:54:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet

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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES NEW ORLEANS AND BATON ROUGE...

...Central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley...
Scenarios involving Barry become especially concerning on Saturday
and Saturday night. Significant flooding and life-threatening
flash flooding are likely across eastern Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi. The official NHC track, supported especially by
recent ECMWF and NAM runs, will bring a hurricane or strong
tropical storm slowly inland, producing widespread heavy tropical
rainfall. The worst case scenario, then, which is depicted in
multiple ECMWF and NAM runs, would be for a persistent band or
bands of convective rainfall to form and then train from
south-southwest to north-northeast within a broadly convergent
inflow region off the Gulf. With a slow cyclone track and broadly
available moist and unstable airmass to the south, there is
potential several hours training convection, producing high-end
rainfall amounts. The 12Z NAM CONUS Nest, for instance, only runs
out to 00Z Sunday, but produces over 10 inches of rain in some
places over just a 6 hour period ending at 00Z. The NAM and CONUS
Nest may be a bit fast. We would expect the threat to worsen
during the overnight hours leading into Sunday morning. But what
is concerning is that when removing placement differences, and
just viewing the intensity of the storm total rainfall, we are
seeing broad swaths of 20-plus inches of rain in the ECMWF, NAM,
Canadian, and GFS. The 06Z NAM even produced a 30 inch maximum in
southwest Louisiana. If this banded scenario sets up, it easily
could shift somewhat to the east or west. But based on our best
available information at this time, we are depicting the maximum
west of New Orleans and east of Lake Charles, placing Lafayette
and Baton Rouge in the area of greatest threat. In crafting the
associated QPF, we also expected that the heaviest amounts may
tend to prefer areas near and south of Interstate 10 to find the
unstable airmass.

This scenario is not quite as certain as other storms of recent
memory like Florence last year. Barry has not yet become very well
organized. But we have seen in numerous examples, including the
unnamed system that struck Louisiana in August 2016, that when the
global models unanimously begin depicting these high-end rainfall
amounts they are usually correct in forecasting a strongly
anomalous event with potential to produce substantial impacts. For
now we have trended the WPC QPF up to indicate areal average 10 to
20 inch amounts, with isolated 25 inch amounts, and with much of
the bulk of this occurring on Day 3.

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That meso swirl that was rotating around the eastern and northern side of the broader circulation may have disrupted a persistent push upstream. High tide was around 4-4:30 pm. These last couple flights have shown a tendency for the lowest sea level pressures to be farther south than that swirl today although by just a few mb's i.e. Kermit currently finding 996 up over the far southern marshes and 991 maybe 100 miles south. Still a somewhat broad elongated inner structure but I do agree, from the last 6 hours of HDOB drops there does finally seem to be some consolidation happening. How far south that might end up being? We've seen the low level circulations tuck under stronger convection in past TS's/canes before.

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Honestly, it looks like that meso vortex has become the dominant one as it tracks southward and gets pulled into the mid-level circulation and deep convection.

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What in the world is this spinning thing that came out of the convection and swirled back around? For a while I thought maybe "this" was the center of circulation, as the center has been so vague to me. But it circled around another circulation. I've never ever seen anything like this in any of the countless storms I have watched.

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Maybe an eye starting?

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