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Tropical wave with a decent mid level circulation swirl just east of Andros island, convection flared up well last night, and expect more tonight. |
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Thunder storms blowing up around a small just north east coast of Cuba moving ESE towards Haiti in the system, A system moving with the shear can strengthen, also some model support for a frontal like boundary. north of the Bahamas later in the week NOGAPS 500hpa could be the formation of a system. |
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Bahamas low |
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Attached latest IR image |
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Attached latest IR AVN |
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. 1. An area of disturbed weather extends over the Central and Northwest Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves toward the Florida peninsula and then the southeastern United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Forecaster Latto/Pasch |
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LLC near Andros sheared, with mid level south east about 150 miles, slowly moving Northwest. still expect slow development by weekend. |
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Looking better again this afternoon, seems to be the norm every day, looking for the convection to last through sun up, noticed the thunderstorms yesterday near Jacksonville were east shearing blowing tops west, and west shear blowing tops east over the system, and this morning they started east shear blowing west in the direction of travel. |