madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 23 2006 09:22 PM
97L

No, I'm not panicking. Just very, very tired and not expressing myself well. *LOL* I need to find a tongue-in-cheek icon. I find it funny looking at the GFDL animated model run and the "still" model run on Skeetobite that the two GFDL tracks don't seem to match up. *LOL* And the GFDL track is farther east than the other 4.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 23 2006 09:27 PM
Re: 97L

Another thing I meant to mention is that all day on TWC, it seemed like 97L varied in importance depending on which forecaster was giving the Tropical Update that particular hour. It seemed to bounce back and forth from area of interest to probably nothing to something worth watching, to don't get worried about it, etc. But I did notice the NHC 8:05 discussion made more of a point of saying they were watching and expecting development.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 23 2006 09:29 PM
Re: 97L

Quote:

No, I'm not panicking. Just very, very tired and not expressing myself well. *LOL* I need to find a tongue-in-cheek icon. I find it funny looking at the GFDL animated model run and the "still" model run on Skeetobite that the two GFDL tracks don't seem to match up. *LOL* And the GFDL track is farther east than the other 4.




The tracks are probably from different model runs. With a developing system, it's common for model runs to change dramatically from one run to the next.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Aug 23 2006 09:40 PM
Re: 97L

This is both 12Z and some 18Z global and tropical model runs combined so keep that in mind.



madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 23 2006 09:43 PM
Re: 97L

Bottom line is, it's going to be at least Sat./Sun. before we get a better idea where this storm -- IF it becomes a storm -- will think about going.

I'm still praying for shear and dust. *LOL*


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 23 2006 09:46 PM
Re: 97L

Quote:

This is both 12Z and some 18Z global and tropical model runs combined so keep that in mind.




Any easy way to distinguish the two runs? But, they all look pretty ominous to me.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Aug 23 2006 10:26 PM
Re: 97L

You should not mix runs as I have done but only four I see are 18z so the picture is rather accurate

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 23 2006 10:29 PM
Re: 97L

Quote:

You should not mix runs as I have done but only four I see are 18z so the picture is rather accurate




If only four of the lines are 18z and the rest are older.. I submit that it's a rather OLD picture :P


Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Aug 23 2006 10:59 PM
Re: 97L

8/24 00Z only



ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 24 2006 11:59 AM
Re: 97L

What time does recon fly today and when will the results be available?


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