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GFDL model continues to spin up a system in the NE GOM moving toward the BP Oil Spill area on July 4th. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/alex01l/fcst/archive/10063000/12.html (I just moved all of the pieces of this under one thread in the same Forum, since they really had nothing to do with the 'Alex' thread in the Storm Forum.) |
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NWSFO BMX made mention of the development of a surface low on the frontal boundary that is draped over the south. The front is to eventually be pushed to the northern GOM as a ridge over the central US builds south. Currently there is an upper low off the coast of FL and is expected to move west into the extreme eastern GOM. The 48 hour GFS at 12Z is depicting a surface low in the northern GOM. What has my attention is how plausible this is and the fact it is forecasted within the 5 day window which gives credibility that warrants looking at this evolving solution. I will have a better handle on this later this evening with the new 01/00Z package. |
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That is correct. For the past 24 hours and last three runs continues to indicate along a frontal boundary expected to reach the GOM in the next 24 hours will become stationary. Currently there is an upper low off the coast of FL; albeit weak. Models have the long wave trough cutting off and developing an upper low off the NC/VA coast . This upper level low is an extension of the long wave trough which continues to dig as it progresses slowly east in response to the upstream long wave trough crashing into the Pacific Coast amplying the downstream Mid-Continental upper ridge expected to be centered over the Midwest. Thee is some mention in various discussions about a tropical low off the Atlantic coast which given the location of the long wave trough off the Atlantic coast; not likely...whatever becomes reflected at the surface will begin as a cold core low. From it the longwave trough continues into the GOM parallel to the surface boundary. HPC discussion felt the GFS is the outlier and develops a upper low off the NC/VA coast in favor of it being the stronger system which it will be but I think after 3 runs it is time to pay attention to the E GOM in the next few days. |
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From the morning AFD NWS Slidell,LA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB FORMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LOCATION HAS SHIFTED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THE 00Z RUN TODAY SHOWS THE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AS THE GFS BUT SLOWER. AM FAVORING THE WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS MEANS THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH DRY AIR PULLED SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE DRIER/HOTTER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID SOUTH AREA. |
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think this next four days will be somewhat active... will have a low pop up off this frontal boundary here in the NE GOM and if the NAM and few others are right... a tropical low in central carib. in less then 4 days. |
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Tampa Bay NWS does not like the idea of a low forming in the NE GOM: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 133 PM EDT THU JUL 1 2010 ...THE GFS ALSO DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF/PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DUE TO THIS FEATURE (AND HOW UNLIKELY IT APPEARS TO BE)...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOLUTION. |
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The pounding of the moderate to heavy rain on the roof of my office in Ft. Myers got me out of my work mode and into what's next and how close is it? Our current situation here is a 30.00 in barometer with heavy rain. The radar presentation is: cells over the peninsula are moving to the NW, but a large mass of rain is falling southward off the panhandle. The satellite presentation is confirmation that the TUTT which had been retrograding from the Bahamas is now sharper and extends down over Cuba. A cyclonic presentation is accompanying the cloud presentation over that island. My reading from as many sources as I can consult is that overall conditions would support development, and the ECMWF solution, which I understood was to allow development south of Cuba in about a week was the model of choice. However, it would not take much surface lowering of pressure given the current physical presentation near the west coast of Florida to get something going, in my humble and very uneducated opinion. |