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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Jul 23 2010 09:03 PM
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Disturbance in the Caribbean
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There is an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean today. This area flared up yesterday, but it appears to have increased in organization this afternoon. This area may have a chance to develop in the next day or two IF the convection persists.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Jul 23 2010 10:43 PM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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I was just going to comment on this. Just to the South of Hispaniola, it does appear to have some spin going on. Also, the shear is relatively light. I wonder why NHC hasn't picked up on it yet.
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Jul 23 2010 11:04 PM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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I have a feeling that the NHC will highlight this area soon. Personally, I think it looks like there is some development already underway. It will be interesting to see what this does tonight and tomorrow.
By the way, the area I am talking about is the area south of Hispaniola-like you mentioned.
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 12:39 AM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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I believe this is the same area that joe Bastardi mentioned yesterday that poses a more significant threat to the gulf in about a week. He was more concerned about this one than he was with bonnie.
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mwillis
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 01:07 AM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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NRL has Invest up for the area mentioned in previous posts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sat Jul 24 2010 04:06 AM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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Actually that image is for 97L - the system that became Bonnie. The coordinates are for 97L on the 22nd but the image does show the area in question below Hispaniola. If NRL starts an Invest for the Caribbean system the number would likely be 98L (since nothing else is going on in the basin).
ED
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 04:59 AM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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98L was given to the disturbance over the Bay of Campeche a couple of days ago. This disturbance is experiencing 20 knots of shear at the moment...24-0500Z but lighter shear ahead as it moves west. This system bears watching.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sat Jul 24 2010 05:03 AM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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You are correct - and others have pointed that out to me as well. The next Invest number for the Atlantic would be 99L.
Thanks,
ED
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 07:03 AM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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Well, I got caught with my britches down two days ago...I thought Bonnie was done while an open wave but left the door open it could become a tropical depression just for the sake of covering my hind parts.
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 12:22 PM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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well the NHC has highlighted the area in the caribbean and gives it a 1% chance of developement. Developement is not anticipated because of its close proximity to yet another upper level low. What is the deal with all these upper level lows, is this normal. It just seems to me that this Hurricane Season forecast was way over done. All the ingredients needed are just not there.
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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Quote:
well the NHC has highlighted the area in the caribbean and gives it a 1% chance of developement. Developement is not anticipated because of its close proximity to yet another upper level low. What is the deal with all these upper level lows, is this normal. It just seems to me that this Hurricane Season forecast was way over done. All the ingredients needed are just not there.
Umm its July 24th. I'd say the forecast was way overdone if this was November 30th and we still only had 2 storms.
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 04:17 PM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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The chance for this area to develop has greatly diminished as, not one, but two upper-lows are shearing it apart. Unless something changes, which will not be in the near term, this area will likely amount to nothing.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 04:57 PM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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I've not heard much on the big flare up over the BOC. Its been very persistent and seems to be moving away from the coast perhaps due to the influence of ULL in the NW GOM. It looks rather impressive right now
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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These ULLs are called TUTT lows...
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on TUTTs see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995). Courtesy of AMOL (NOAA)."
Bonnie has been pestered by a TUTT low since birth, currently in the Western GOM. It and the upper ridge over the SE USA has been the system's steering mechanism since day one and Wind Shear analysis has made that point very clear. Frankly, it was a fluke it formed into a depression, but there was one day where the shear lightened considerably before making its presence known the following day. Bonnie's undoing was her speed. The thinking originally would be for the ULL to get out of the way; however Bonnie was moving so fast that it never got away from the ULL winds aloft. Bonnie never had an opportunity to gain any vertical depth thus was steered by the tropical easterlies that are evident this time of year.
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Jul 24 2010 05:19 PM
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Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean
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There is a well defined ULL to the north of the system. It too is a TUTT low. There is an interesting feature just to the NW of the Bay of Campeche; however it is so close to the MX coast that it may not garner the attention of the NHC.
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