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A tropical wave, not yet an Invest area, is located near 13N 35W at 16/15Z moving westward at 15 knots. The wave currently has limited convection but a large circulation envelope and this system could eventually become a significant entity. ED |
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This wave is getting a lot of model support and if the models are correct it is likely not to be a fishspinner. It's very early now, and this season the models ahve not been really accurate in regards to forecasting cyclonic development and strengthening; but by this weekend folks in the SE US need to be keeping an eye on this disturbance as it enters the Carribean(per the models). |
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This may be the model support your talking about. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011 VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011 THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. |
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The wave in question was just labelled 97L. Like I said yesterday it needs to be watched by folks in the SE US. It's very early, and the trend has been our friend this year (no big storms); but it's the time of the year and that Atlantic ridge set up is leaving florida unprotected. |
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The model runs are not very encouraging for intensity and location right now. We definitely need to watch this one closely. Checking my preparedness plans now. |
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Note that Invest 97L now has a thread in the Forecast Lounge for any additional forecasts on this system since this Forum is primarily just to note various features in the basin. ED |