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I just noticed a feature that is firing up over Puerto Rico this morning. It looks interesting (wave-like to my untrained but experienced eyes), but I don't see anything on the NHC site or anywhere else much about it. The models I have access to don't show anything potentially cooking down there...yet there it is. Am I making something out of nothing? It looks like more than just a flair up of thunderstorms and is progressing toward Haiti. |
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It's a large wave or what is referred to often as a "wave axis" meaning it's large, disorganized and oozes more than moves.... BUT..........it's really very "there" and noticeable and hard to ignore. There doesn't seem to be a lot of model support, possibly why the NHC has not put up a "yellow circle" but it is there. Also noticed today that the northern part of the wave seems to be moving towards an ULL to the North making me wonder if this convection is going to end up more in the Bahamas than to the South as previously thought. Or...the north part goes north and the southern part slides into the Caribbean. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif NWS is able to monitor it on PR radar...from their forecast discussion: .SYNOPSIS...THE TRAILING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION...AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE A SEVERE STORM FORMED AND MOVED FROM PATILLAS NORTHWESTWARD TO VEGA BAJA. SOME REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES...DOWNED TREES AND STRONG WINDS WERE RECEIVED WITH THIS SEVERE STORM. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI RECEIVED MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD INTO HISPANOLA. |
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I didn't think I was seeing things. I now see the ULL to the northeast on the Caribbean WV loop. The whole convective area looks like it is lifting a bit to the north since this morning. Could it get caught up in the trof that looks like it is trailing the ULL and the whole thing head up the Atlantic? |
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I was thinking that too ....more yesterday than today. If there was a "center" I think it took off towards the North and it's hard to find. The lower level moisture is oozing west... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html An area in the SW Carib seems to be "blossoming" and also adding to shear from below... the trough to the north is racing down towards it... looks bleak for the wave that caused so much weather in PR and the islands yesterday. It had the appearance the other day of something happening.. then lost it. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif And, I don't think that can be blamed completely on African Dust... A wave needs to be stacked to properly develop... which was a problem with Debby whose weather always stayed far from her center. This wave needs a center. Either way... what you said definitely can be seen played out on long loops. Great discussion out of Key West NWS: ".A WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES IS ANALYZED ABOUT 500-700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH A WAVE AXIS RUNNING FROM NEAR GRAND TURK TO JAMAICA. THIS WAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHED THE LARGE DIFLUENT ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE" See what today brings... Wondering how much the area in the SW Carib is affecting it as well now.. |
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Hi Lois: There is no upper level support for any development of the TW from the Bahamas to Jamaica.. However, that and the trough over the peninsula should enhance rain in southern Florida over the next couple of days. The SW Carribean is analyzed as the monsoon trough. Development is more conceivable from this region, but upper level conditions are hostile too. Not much expected in the foreseeable. |
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Huge convective flair-up over eastern Cuba this evening. Could be energy from our little friend still making its way northwest. We don't need another Debbie in Florida, but decent rains to refill the aquifer are always welcome....as long as the flooded areas are dried out a bit since Debbie. The area mentioned in the SW Caribbean has a nice bloom just off-shore of Nicaragua as well. Lots of energy still around with the moisture if the right conditions line up. |