Ed,

Thanks for the overview. I just found your page, and as an ex-FSU meteorology major (flunked out!) currently living in Tallahassee, I am obviously paying very close attention.

Here's my question. Previous discussions (even back two days) referenced moderate wind shear that should weaken Ivan after it emerges into the Gulf. (Some) weakening is still forecast, but only due to cold water upwelling and relatively slow movement. Is the shear no longer in play, and how reliable is upwelling in weakening a major hurricane (as opposed to just preventing further intensification prior to landfall)?