| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue May 09 2006 12:27 AM |
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some general questions
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Okay, I have a few questions for you all????
1. La Nina~ Is it a good thing or a bad thing. I read the headlines online every day and I read one where they said "good news" "Weak La Nina"??
I thought La nina was a bad thing for hurricane season.
2. When will the next forecast come out from Dr. Gray? June 1st?
3. This question may be too broad for the board, but, do you think that we will have another 2004/2005 season this year? I know that some of you study the patterns, steering currents, sst's, etc..Just opinions from you weather watchers.
Thanks everyone for always helping:)
Christine, St. Pete, FL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 10 2006 03:21 PM |
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Re: some general questions
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Another question....Among the mets out there, is there anyone who has consistently predicted storm paths, intensity, etc. more accurately than even the NHC over the chaotic 04,05 seasons? I realize the NHC is THE source for official forecasts, evac info and such. I was just wondering how all of the predictions on this board stack up to the NHC.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 10 2006 06:08 PM |
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Re: some general questions
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Regarding your questions Christine, I wouldn't categorize a "weak La Nina" as good news, although there are other conditions that would have to be in place to make it a dangerous hurricane season. Any season that is La Nina or ENSO neutral could mean an active Atlantic season. I've heard this term misused recently, particularly by Glenn Richards in Orlando where he stated that the "current La Nina pattern is responsible for our westerly flow and contributing to our wildfires across central Florida." While a weak La Nina may have existed 6 - 8 weeks ago, it is long gone now and we're in a neutral pattern currently. Again, La Nina or neutral patterns generally mean more active Atlantic hurricane seasons, but other factors affect the outcome as well. Dr. Gray will have his update out June 1st or thereabouts. I believe this season will be another nail-biter, but with numbers closer to 2004. Where these storms go will depend on the axis of the east coast ridge (Bermuda high), which I believe will strengthen during August, and present a dangerous set up for the SE US and Gulf coastal areas as well..........western GOM quite possibly is ridging becomes dominant. Cheers!!
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 10 2006 08:55 PM |
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Re: some general questions
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The effects of La Nina are still prevalent in parts of the U.S.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 11 2006 12:22 AM |
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Re: some general questions
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Thanks Steve!! Great explaination:)
If I am correct, the Bermuda High was a pretty big factor in '04 in where the hurricanes were directed right??
I guess it was a combo of the BH and the fronts coming in from the North?? For 4(? I think 4) hurricanes to cross over the same point..that was ..well..pretty bad.
Was the Bermuda High as strong in '05 as it was in '04?
Always learning..Thanks for all of the answers guys!!
Christine,
St. Petersburg, FL
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 11 2006 01:47 AM |
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Re: some general questions
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The high pressure was strong in 2004. Last year it was strong again. I do not know for a fact whether it could be considered stronger, though.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 11 2006 01:51 AM |
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Re: some general questions
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It wasn't particularly stronger in 2005, just shifted further to the west of where it was in 2004. Thus, we saw about two primary paths for storms this year, of course with some deviation here and there -- out to sea out by the Bahamas, or through the Gulf/Caribbean to the north-central or northwest Gulf coast.
As for the other question about how we fare vs. the NHC -- well, we don't really try to compete with them, so we don't put out forecast points or anything. We just try to stress the importance of preparation, discuss the storms, point out ideas that the NHC specialists don't always have the chance to do so themselves, and highlight areas where uncertainty exists in the forecasts. I've thought about trying to put out specific points, but it doesn't really accomplish anything other than foster confusion. You will see us mention our ideas on tracks and everything, with some success, but it's not really possible to compare how we do vs. the NHC (and vice versa).
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 17 2006 08:05 PM |
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Re: some general questions
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Dr. Gray's Tropical Storm Forecasts:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/
| Nateball |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon May 22 2006 02:40 AM |
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Re: some general questions
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first off great question's sara33
I have a quick question, are the current SST's in the Gulf of Mexico and in the caribbean normal for this time of year or are they a little cool right now? And with the temps getting higher these next few weeks will they warm up quickly? Thanks
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon May 22 2006 11:15 PM |
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Re: some general questions
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To answer your questions...
1) A tad cooler than normal in the Gulf, above normal in the Caribbean -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
2) Yeah, if these current conditions hold, the waters in the Gulf should warm up pretty quickly. The waters of the northern Gulf are pretty shallow and tend to warm up (and cool down) pretty fast. I'm getting a tad concerned with the warm waters in the Caribbean; we'll have to see what happens.