Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Sun Apr 06 2008 05:00 PM
Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season



Quick question ED why would it be unusual under the present or forcasted atmospheric conditions across the tropical atlantic?

Also so your thinking landfall wise for U.S. could be rather on the busy side?

Thanks Again for your insights.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Apr 07 2008 05:14 AM
Something to Ponder

Note that your post was moved because the seasonal prediction thread in the Storm Forum is limited to forecasts only.

A high storm total (14 or more) under strong La Nina pre-season conditions (May/June/July) would be unusual because it has never happened before since reliable SST records have been available (1950).

Regarding landfall, there have been 11 seasons with an average July/August/September ENSO Region 3.4 SST anomaly of -0.8C or stronger. A review of those 11 seasons showed a landfall in Texas and North Carolina 45% of the time, and a landfall rate of 64% for Florida and Louisiana. The 11 seasons were 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1998 and 1999. Every season had at least one tropical cyclone landfall (TS strength or greater) in the United States. The 11 seasons had a combined total of 26 hurricane landfalls and 17 tropical storm landfalls. If a strong La Nina remains in place through September (as currently forecasted), the probability of a hurricane landfall AND a tropical storm landfall in the U.S. this season is slightly greater than 90%.
ED

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed May 07 2008 11:37 PM
Re: Second Tropical Wave of Season

So where do hurricanes generally spawn in may-june-july. What theatres should we be looking at?


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center