| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 09 2008 11:19 AM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest
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Ed, Correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't The Cliper5 a statistical model based on previous years data, specifically 1956 through 1995, with factors such as initial motion, day of the year and max surface winds compared to storms with similar parameters, over the years, without any other dynamics? This probably belongs in A/T but, it does relate to your post.
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Jul 09 2008 03:57 PM |
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The CLIPER Forecast Model
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From Wikipedia:
CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model.
Cheers,
ED