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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
The Official Start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season
      #92669 - Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM

2012's Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts today. However, already there have been two named storms. Alberto, which did not impact land directly, and Beryl this past weekend which became a strong Tropical Storm and made landfall in Jacksonville Beach, slowed down and rained more than expected in Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.

The only other recorded times that there were two named storms before June 1st were in 1887 and 1908. 1887 was fairly active but 1908 wound up being relatively average. The mere fact we had two preseason storms does not mean that this year will necessarily be active, but it does give a better chance to get deep into the alphabet this year.

Beryl made landfall across Jacksonville which hasn't seen a landfall pattern like that in decades.

Florida remains without a direct hurricane landfall since 2005's Wilma. Irene last year was last hurricane to make landfall in the United States, and before that Ike in 2007. Florida's luck has been pretty good (Tropical Storms excluded) so odds are a bit higher this year that Florida may be hit by a hurricane.

The lack of Florida hits is dangerous with the inexperience of many new coastal residents, and apathy toward preparations. Beryl was a strong storm, but did not make it to hurricane force.

Again, be hurricane prepared. Have a plan, at the very least. Know if you are in an evacuation area, and when to leave (and more importantly when not to).
Have some supplies ready if you are in an area that may see hurricanes, and stay informed. Hype is still a large problem with media and storms, and this site still takes the point of view that hurricanes are rare events and that hype is counterproductive, smart monitoring of the basin is more useful.
With the proliferation of social media sites, it's easier for information (and misinformation) to get out. Hype can exist there too. I dislike hurricanes, but still want to learn as much about them as possible. Here you will find discussion and data geared to what is going on, and not toward sensational reporting of the situation.

So Be prepared!

The National Hurricane Center has been and still is the best source for accurate information, this site is a supplement to it from another point of view. There are plenty of other resources on the internet and elsewhere that we recommend looking at as well, but only to gain added insight.

Confirm anything you read or see in multiple places when trying to decide on a plan of action for any particular storm. When a storm gets very close internet sites like this one become much less important than local sources for information.
Also if something does hit and you are ok, take advantage of social sites to let people know the status of yourself and your area so that word can spread since local communications can be strained. (Note if you can't get a call out on strained networks, try to use text or data!)

There haven't been too many changes or additions to flhurricane.com, we still remain to be fairly fast with updates, and have article and blog postings that generally try to stick to facts and limit hype.

The list of names for this year is Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William

For the first two months of Hurricane season, it is generally slow. Any development usually happens in the Western Caribbean and southern Gulf. Generally toward the second half of July it starts to heat up and things get really going mid August through mid October. This year there is an additional area to watch off the southeast coast, for any stalled out fronts or items that come from the Gulf/Caribbean, similar to where Beryl formed.

Currently in the Atlantic, there is nothing likely to develop soon, longer range (next week and beyond) the Western Caribbean or Southeast Gulf would be the best areas to watch.

As in many years prior Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing an 8PM broadcast tonight for the season kickoff.

Mark Sudduth at HurricaneTrack.com has interesting options this year and continues to be a great source of storm information, especially at landfall with his hurricane chasing.

We'll be updating links, some sites such as Stormpulse have converted to a pay model, but we are still sticking with a donation/tip only approach (see the Site Donations and Thanks link) The mods and admins this year are all helping to contribute to updates, and the facebook and twitter feeds will be updated as well. Finally, remember that the Weather Analysts are an excellent source of 'common-sense' calm guidance on any storms that do develop this season.

Chris Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chris


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chris (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chris (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chris

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chris
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chris -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: The Official Start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #92675 - Tue Jun 05 2012 02:24 PM

Got to love this one: "Cough up" ?? I believe that's supposed to be "caught up".

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS COUGH UP IN BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE
ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 11N21W TO 5N23W MOVING W AT ABOUT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE NOTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-25W....

ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF
WEEK DEVELOPMENT IS FOUND OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD.

"Week development" spell check is broken today.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 05 2012 02:27 PM)


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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: The Official Start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Re: danielw]
      #92676 - Fri Jun 08 2012 06:49 PM

Quote:

Got to love this one: "Cough up" ?? I believe that's supposed to be "caught up".




Yeah, I thought I was going to have to learn some new terminology!

Looking forward to another season here... Keep up the fine work!!

Malachi

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: The Official Start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #92683 - Sat Jun 16 2012 01:17 AM

What are your thoughts on the low in the northern GOM? The NHC has highlighted it with a "near 0 percent" chance of development as it drifts westward over the next couple days. Most models keep this system from becoming a warm core low, except for the NAM which hints at some weak tropical development. From what I can tell, shear should relax some in about 24-36 hrs. This may give it a slightly better chance. Either way, it's something to watch.

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Mid June Development Areas [Re: WesnWylie]
      #92684 - Sat Jun 16 2012 08:36 AM

Area in Northern GOM:
Right now it's not much more than an elongated area of low pressure or a trough.

At this time, 8:21AM EDT, I am able to identify a weak elongated cyclonic circulation from the Mouth of the Mississippi River south-southeastward toward the Tampa,FL area.
Several cycling satellite signatures in the center cloud mass resembling CHT's. Convective Hot Towers.

Certainly one of the areas to watch over the weekend.
The others being the Western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche' and the remnants of E Pacific Hurricane Carlotta.
The last few days there has been a rather large cyclonic circulation in the Western Caribbean several hundred miles in diameter.
Similar to the large swirl in your bathtub when you open the drain before the swirl shrinks in size.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Mid June Development Areas [Re: danielw]
      #92685 - Sun Jun 17 2012 07:14 AM

24 hours later.
Poof it's gone. Only a few clouds remain in the Northern GOM which is now edging under a ridge of High pressure.


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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
Re: Mid June Development Areas [Re: danielw]
      #92687 - Mon Jun 18 2012 11:22 AM

Maybe it did not poof altogether and instead re-centered to the south and east. Although it is only noticeable on the last few WV satellite frames, there is a small cyclonic feature in the Southeast Gulf with a scant amount of convection wrapping around it, but then that may have come off the Yucatan from some of that leftover Carlotta energy. Could that small spin be a mini upper level low, cause I see next to no low level clouds on the RGB?

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Just off the Yucatan... [Re: Fairhopian]
      #92690 - Mon Jun 18 2012 12:46 PM

Here we go:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Hasn't the NHC been waiting for something to get going in this general area this week. ?


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: Just off the Yucatan... [Re: Beach]
      #92691 - Mon Jun 18 2012 06:43 PM

I do see the spinning... have to keep watching. A lot going on everywhere, but yeah I do see the spin.

Interesting to see the next run of models.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: The Official Start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #92692 - Tue Jun 19 2012 07:37 AM

The area east of the Yucatan doesn't have much chance to do anything the next few days, but the general pattern may bring it closer to Texas later in the week, where it may need to be watched. Right now it's very broad and not organized, it may get an invest tag later today though.

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