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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1068
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
60 MPH Slow Moving Tropical Storm Debby's Uncertain Future
      #92797 - Sat Jun 23 2012 04:56 PM

4PM Mini Update 6/24/2012



11AM Mini Update 6/24/2012
Debby's track has been adjusted a bit to the east at the 11AM EDT advisory, and may do so more. The cone is more important than the track, especially in this case, which unfortunately still means Texas to Florida.



The potential exists for short lived tornadoes in West Florida, parts of Central Florida, Panhandle, and Big Bend.

The official discussion mentions the possibility for west or east motion, implying that they may adjust the track to the east once again.

Therefore Tropical warnings now from Mississippi to Suwanee River (Big bend). Watches there south to Anclote Key (around Tarpon springs and north of Clearwater/Tampa).

East facing parts of the gulf shore, such as the barrier islands around Apalachicola / St. George's island may see some of the worst of it.

8AM Update 6/24/2012
Debby's future remains uncertain, but please heed any warnings from the NHC and local media/authorities.

As of the 8AM Advisory, Tropical Storm Warnings now extend eastward from the Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to the Ochlockonee river (Which is just south of Tallahassee, FL).

Tropical Storm Debby is a bit stronger this morning, with 60MPH winds, but still exposed in the center, with the majority of the convection to the north and east of the center.

This convection will bring much rain to Florida, particularly southwest Florida and the Big Bend and Panhandle Areas. Some of it will be flooding rains, and brief tornadoes may occur. Not a good beach weekend for the Gulf side.

Beyond this, the official forecast takes Debby to a Hurricane as it slowly moves westward, no landfall projected as of yet. This is due to uncertainty with the models, models that yesterday were suggesting Texas no longer do so, instead moving it toward Louisiana, and still others suggest it slowly go into Florida. In short, the most difficult track forecast in quite a while.

Speculation for Debby can be found in the Forecast Lounge.

How is debby affecting your immediate area? Let us all know here.



The official forecast may be changing around, but two of several possible options are....

It heads west, and has more likelihood of becoming a hurricane, and if so could be potentially extremely dangerous considering the uncertainty of the track... This is the current official forecast, but only marginally more likely.

Or it may be more like a typical June storm and stay weak and unorganized and just raining over the northeastern Gulf and slide over Florida.

Either way, it is an extremely unusual system in that it literally could go either way (and perhaps both if part of the energy splits... this would imply a much weaker system). All of the Gulf coastal areas need to monitor it, with the watch/warning area needing to watch it and possibly prepare if trends indicate a stronger storm Some of the outer bands of Debby may get rough, even as far as western Florida and points north along the Gulf.

Splitting the difference you have a 3rd option, which is trouble for Louisiana and Mississippi, with a developing tropical storm or possible hurricane, all moving very slowly.

We'd be lucky to find out any new clear patter today, as Debby still could see circulation center reformations, and a general very slow to no forward motion.

Original Update
The persistent disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico ramped up quite a bit since last night, and has become our fourth tropical storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Debby. Debby makes history today, having become the earliest forming fourth tropical storm in the Atlantic basin, and also gives 2012 the record of the only season on the books to have four named Atlantic storms before July.

Recon is currently penetrating the deep convective leg in Debby's east, and has just found flight level winds of 69MPH, at an elevation of about 1,250'. This band of rain and thunderstorms that is paralleling the west coast of Florida is capable of producing very heavy rain, wind gusts in excess of 60MPH, and isolated tornadoes.

Along the north and eastern coastlines of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, flooding and dangerous rip currents are increasing risks.

Debby forms as a lopsided system: heavy, deep, tropical moisture in her eastern half, and nearly devoid of convection west. The upper level low in the northwestern Gulf that has been acting like a blow drier to Debby's western side is forecast to weaken, and possibly slide away to the southwest, allowing Debby to begin filling in all the way around, with much improved upper atmospheric conditions for intensification over the course of the next several days.

NHC expects Debby to make landfall somewhere along the Texas coast late next week, perhaps, conservatively, as a strong tropical storm. However, confidence is not high, and all along the way, from Florida through all Gulf Coast states in between, tropical storm conditions will be possible.

Debby may become a very potent tropical storm, and has an above average shot at becoming a hurricane. As a precaution, residents along the coastline in particular may want to begin making preparations for the potential impacts.

A Tropical Storm Warning has now been issued for the southeast Louisiana coast. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warned area within 36 hours.
Ciel



long term recording of the NASA color gulf sat for Debby:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?130

or http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/imageanimator.php?130 (if older browsers)

Florida Radar Recording of Debby Here, or Here

Power outage map for Florida (Progress Energy)

Florida Emergency Management


Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Live Stream:
HCW Live Stream Beach Cam (West end of Gulf Shores, AL)
Panama City Beach cams

Flhurricane Web cam recording out of Madeira Beach
New Style Old Style

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Debby Event Related Links
AL042012mltsth.gif
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Debby
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Debby (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Debby Clark Evans Track Plot of Debby (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Debby
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Debby -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Edited by MikeC (Sun Jun 24 2012 04:35 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 60 MPH Slow Moving Tropical Storm Debby's Uncertain Future [Re: cieldumort]
      #92832 - Sun Jun 24 2012 08:45 AM

Rough weather is making its way into the West Coast of Florida this morning, as more tornado warnings are starting to pop up. particularly from near ft. Myers north to North of Tampa. Expect some occasional bad bands to come through along the west coast and a bit inland today.

And in the panhandle, even worse, particularly in the Warning area. At the moment Panama City beach east towards the big bend are getting some really rough bands.

SFWMD Full Florida Radar

Started Recording that radar at Here, or Here


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 60 MPH Slow Moving Tropical Storm Debby's Uncertain Future [Re: cieldumort]
      #92844 - Sun Jun 24 2012 11:05 AM

Debby's track has been adjusted a bit to the east at the 11AM EDT advisory, and may do so more. The cone is more important than the track, especially in this case, which unfortunately still means Texas to Florida.

The official discussion mentions the possibility for west or east motion, implying that they may adjust the track to the east once again.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: 60 MPH Slow Moving Tropical Storm Debby's Uncertain Future [Re: MikeC]
      #92847 - Sun Jun 24 2012 11:57 AM

Quote:

Debby's track has been adjusted a bit to the east at the 11AM EDT advisory, and may do so more. The cone is more important than the track, especially in this case, which unfortunately still means Texas to Florida.

The official discussion mentions the possibility for west or east motion, implying that they may adjust the track to the east once again.




"at any time" was the exact wording in the discussion at 11... imagine they will go with a breaking news update correction rather than wait til 5pm if models do not support the 11 am?

Their track so far has no verified, so I'd say it's suspect ...despite how much I respect their forecasts...

Is it possible the weather goes east and the center goes west?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at201204.asp

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 60 MPH Slow Moving Tropical Storm Debby's Uncertain Future [Re: LoisCane]
      #92848 - Sun Jun 24 2012 11:59 AM

Added web cam recording out of Madeira Beach:
New Style Old Style

Edit: Switched from St. george island, since they are now out of power there.
2nd edit: and it appears alligator point is also.
3rd edit: switch it to Madeira Beach (reports of very high surf)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 60 MPH Slow Moving Tropical Storm Debby's Uncertain Future [Re: MikeC]
      #92858 - Sun Jun 24 2012 12:36 PM

Waiting on the latest vortex.

Maximum flight level wind speed so far was from the NW Quadrant.

Time: 14:50:30Z
Coordinates: 29.1167N 87.4W
Acft. Static Air Press: 811.9 mb (~ 23.98 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,847 meters (~ 6,060 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 53° at 68 knots (From the NE at ~ 78.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.1°C* (~ 57.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

That's roughly 68 mph at the surface. Aircraft is at the 5,000 foot flight level.
******************************************************

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 86°11'W (28.15N 86.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 143 miles (231 km) to the SSW (193°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,368m (4,488ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 336° at 48kts (From the NNW at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,829m (6,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,829m (6,001ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:49:00Z

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 24 2012 12:37 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Debby's Severe weather impacts [Re: danielw]
      #92861 - Sun Jun 24 2012 01:04 PM

Those of you in Southern Alabama, Southern Georgia and basically ALL of Florida need to pay special attention to your Local Weather sources.

I'm beginning to see spiral bands over Southern AL and GA. These can spin up Tornadoes will little warning. The other main threat from spiral band/ feeder band Tornadoes is that they move in various directions depending on their relation to the storm center.
Currently the storms over Southern AL and GA are moving to the WSW at a pretty good clip.

Not to be left out. Most of the Western Half of the Florida Peninsula is under a Tornado Watch until this evening. The watch may be extended at that time due to Debby's lack of forward speed.
The Upper Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle should pay close attention to media and weather sources as a Tornado Watch or Warning may be issues at any time.

This severe weather is typical of any landfalling tropical system.
While Debby certainly doesn't appear to be in the landfall mode. Her rain bands are making landfall continuously and probably will for at least another 24 hours.


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