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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Area off of Southeast Florida has Low Development Chances
      #93034 - Sun Jul 22 2012 11:32 AM

7:30 AM EDT 23 July 2012
The disturbance mentioned yesterday has drifted northwest over the peninsula, and most of the rain associated with it is along the east coast of Florida this morning, and because of the northwesterly motion development chances have fallen off a cliff and likely will never develop. The dry air to the north has made sure of that.

Original Update
After Debbie, the Atlantic has remained mostly quiet, but this morning there is an area off Southeast Florida that currently has a 10% chance for development.

Likely it will just enhance rainfall over the southeast, parts of Central Florida, and the Bahamas.

If the disturbance makes it across the state and into the Gulf, it could gradually gain strength there, and is worth watching through this week.

It is not an official invest, so no direct model runs have been made on it, though it may get tagged later today.



Regardless, this system has a chance to bring gusty winds and rainfall to the northwestern Bahamas, central and south Florida over the next few days.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


99L Event Related Links
AL992012mltsth.gif
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
Re: Area off of Southeast Florida has Low Development Chances [Re: MikeC]
      #93035 - Sun Jul 22 2012 02:18 PM

Wind reports are coming in on the strong side.

Could pressures drop or will this just rain itself out?

Had this wave not been carrying dust on it's back the whole trip from Africa... it most likely would have been one tough named storm.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area off of Southeast Florida has Low Development Chances [Re: LoisCane]
      #93042 - Sun Jul 22 2012 08:10 PM

Pressures remain quite high - which is good. But another vorticity max currently over the northernmost Bahamas is heading toward east-central Florida. If it holds together, probably another round of showers and gusty winds late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
ED

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