MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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1:00 AM EDT 9 August 2012:
Much of Erneso's internals actually organized more into landfall, and for the first several hours after landfall a distinct eye feature was still very noticeable in the enhanced infrared images.
Tropical cyclones that intensify into landfall and go on to cross a peninsula (such as Florida, or in this case, the Yucatan) often have a very good chance of pulling things back together rapidly once getting back out over the water. Such appears to be the case with , with recon finding winds up at 5,000' of nearly 100 MPH, and peak surface winds of around 65 MPH, which has been set as the current advisory as of 11:00 PM EDT Aug. 8.
Ernesto has a window of about 12-30 hours, based on exact track and forward speed, to become a hurricane again. At present, this looks likely, and that is reflected in 's official forecast which is calling for a second landfall as a hurricane, this time with the center coming ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Chilitepec, MX..
It is expected that will drop widespread rainfall totals of 3"-9", with potentially much higher totals in some locations, over Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla & northern Oaxaca through Friday, with even more heavy rain possible over the weekend. As a result, dangerous inland flooding will probably occur in parts of these states from today through Sunday.
Ciel
11:35 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Hurricane made landfall along the coast of the extreme southern Yucatan at about 10:00 PM CDT near Mahahual, MX., and is now crossing the peninsula.
Ciel
10:40 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Strong Category 1 Hurricane is likely within 15-45 minutes of making landfall along the southeastern Yucatan peninsula. Then if it follows the official forecast, will likely initially remain a hurricane, and then a strong tropical storm, as it crosses the peninsula over the next 18-36 hours before exiting into the Bay of Campeche to briefly restrengthen before a final, second Mexican landfall, Thursday night.
Hurricane will become the first landfalling hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Ciel
2:40 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Ernesto has been upgraded to a hurricane. Maximum sustained winds found by recon are now roughly 80MPH, and the pressure has continued to drop, now 983mb.
Ciel
7:45 AM EDT 7 August 2012:
Ernesto has been fighting dry air for a while, and disrupted the intensification process and seems to we working through that now, it still has a chance to become a hurricane later today before landfall tomorrow morning near or just north of Belize in the Yucatan.
has become a large tropical storm which will likely bring some storm surge to areas north of landfall with heavy rains, those in the area beware of a strengthening storm, and prepare for a hurricane at landfall..
In the east Atlantic 92L is being tracked as it moves west. It has a 20% chance for development in the next 2 days. This one is likely to stay on a westerly course for a while, and may be worth watching next week if it nears the islands.
The remnants of Florence only have a 10% shot to regenerate.
Belize radar recording (Alternate)
Webcam recording, Cozumel El Cid resorts. (Alternate)
9:15 AM EDT 6 August 2012:
Recon has found an eyewall, a fully circular one and 6 nautical miles wide in this morning, after not finding much of anything yesterday. Based on this, I'd expect a special advisory fairly soon and Hurricane Watches and Warnings up for Honduras/Belize fairly soon.
This area of the Caribbean is known for rapid intensification of storms, and if has the eyewall as stated by the recon vortex message, intensification is already underway and is probably a hurricane now. Those in the current Tropical Storm Warning areas and Belize should be preparing for a possibly strong hurricane approaching.
7:30 AM EDT 6 August 2012:
Ernesto has held overnight and continues to move due west, because of this new watches and warnings are up:
Honduras from the Nicaragua border west to Puntal Sal has a Tropical Storm Warning, as may very well make landfall or past just to the north of there.
Hurricane Watches are up from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa in Mexico along the Yucatan since if stays north of Honduras it has a last shot for intensification before landfall.
Tropical storm watches are up for the rest of Honduras and parts north of Punsal Gruesa in the Mexican Yucatan to Tulum.
As of 5AM Belize had no watches/warnings up, but that should change fairly soon.
Ernesto has about a 50/50 shot to briefly re-emerge over the Gulf in the very southern bay of Campeche, but trends suggest it may not make it that far.
Ernesto is clear of any South American land influence now and has a window to strengthen today.
11 PM EDT 5 August 2012:
Ernesto has not gained any strength today and has barely remained a Tropical Storm during the day, the general westerly motion has continued throughout the day, and only fairly recently has the forward motion slowed a bit. It appears will likely cross near Honduras, over Belize and through Mexico, it may or may not briefly reenter the Bay of Campeche before then. If it manages to make it north of Honduras it has the chance to strengthen some before landfall.
Florence continues moving westward, fairly weak and likely will weaken a bit more, it appears as it will stay away from land areas.
91L was officially deactivated this morning and much of the rainfall never materialized over Florida.
8 AM EDT 5 August 2012:
Ernesto as a system is struggling at the mid levels again, and has started to move very quickly westward again (22mph westward motion). This speed has forced Tropical Storm warnings to be issued for the north coast of Honduras.
itself can arguable called an open wave as recon just has not been able to find a large area of westerly winds at all.
With this observation from overnight, it appears the more westerly track has solidified and likely will affect Central America/Mexico in 2-3 days.
8 AM EDT 4 August 2012:
Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence this morning, Florence is expected to move generally westward and encounter hostile development conditions that may force it back into an open wave in a few days.
Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Jamaica for , which is forecast to move south of Jamaica, but may be close enough to cause Tropical Storm force winds on the Island. The forecast track was adjusted a bit southward, which may keep the storm moving generally westward all the way through the Caribbean. Latest recon reports still keep a weak Tropical Storm currently mainly due to mid level dry air.
In the long run, those in the Yucatan of Mexico, Honduras, and Belize will want to watch very closely.
91L has lost a lot of convection overnight, but likely will re-fire today, but it appears just to be a rain maker south and Central Florida and will not develop in the Atlantic.
11 PM EDT 3 August 2012:
90L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 6. Located 240 WSW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Previous Update:
Ernesto is now in the Eastern Caribbean, moving very rapidly westward, likely will continue on it's westward motion for a good while.
91L is now being track southeast of Florida. This was the wave mentioned early in the week, and now has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours as it brings enhanced rainfall to central and south Florida now through the weekend.
90L has a 50% chance for development in the far east Atlantic, odds favor this one staying out to sea.
In short, a busy weekend in the tropics.
East Florida Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
South to North:
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track
SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
FLorida Keys -
Miami/South Florida -
Melbourne/East Central Florida -
Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?135]Belize radar recording[/url] ([http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?135]Alternate[/url])
Ernesto Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
92L Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Florence
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 09 2012 01:40 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Once you have looked over the links above. You might want to drift over to this page. All of the latest satellite data on all three of the Systems.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
Some of it is a bit over my head. But the graphics simplify it greatly.
Note: Based on the latest IR imagery of 90L just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system appears to be as developed as if not more. Nice and southern channel outflow. It's probably nearing TD stage if it isn't already a TD or weak Tropical Storm.
edit:Great minds think alike. See Mike's post below and the time stamp of this post and his. Scary!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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90L in the east Atlantic is on the verge of become a depression, and may very well later tonight.
9!L, near Florida will be a big rainmaker this weekend for Florida. The National Weather Service Jacksonville has a slideshow on this.
Ernesto has held together today and has a good shot to maintain its storm status overnight and possibly wind up slightly stronger, it is still lacking good outflow that would be indicative of a strengthening system, however along with the still rapid westward motion. T numbers, do, in fact, show it stronger than earlier today.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Looking at the wv of all three systems,it appears all three are getting much better organized at this hour.91L seems to really be firing up off the north east coast of Cuba.Pretty amazing thing to see all three getting organized all at once.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Aug 03 2012 10:30 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 963
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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90L is Tropical Depression 6 as of 11pm.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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Tropical Depression Six is Tropical Storm as of 8:00 a.m.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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TD#6 became TS Florence. 
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Fairhopian
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
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Ernesto's starting to breathe - outflow expanding. Is this storm's forward speed the primary factor keeping the intensity forecast at Cat 1 all the way to and thru the Gulf? Would the environment in the Carib otherwise support further strengthening, if the storm slows to say 12 mph over the next day or two? Any reason to believe we'll see an eye before it reaches the Yucatan?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of it's really hard to tell right now.
I still see a tight clustering of the and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.
All of the other models and the Official Forecast take toward the Cozumel/ Cancun,MX area. With one exception, the AEMN still goes west toward southern Texas and then doglegs toward the Lake Charles,LA/ Houston,TX area.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
TropicalAtlantic.com Model page
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 04 2012 09:40 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Forecast wise I favor more westerly because of two factor issue, has gotten a lot of mid-level dry air injecting into it, which is probably why recon is having trouble finding any real winds, and the general motion of the storm (and the fact it has gained very little to no latitude yesterday) suggests the west/southern part of the cone is more likely. Not that it will happen, just more likely. 11AM will probably keep the storm as is or slightly weaker, but once the dry air goes away the run for possible hurricane status may begin.
I don't really thing /HRWF has an accurate representation of right now, so I'm leaning toward the other global models. Felix in 2007 was an example of a storm that bombed in the central/western Caribbean and then eventually still made landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, despite forecasts keeping it further north.
What to watch to see where the odds go is how much latitude the system does or does not gain, and how quickly/if it recovers from the thrashing it's getting in the mid levels right now;. If it follows the track today very closely, the chances for more northerly track (ala ) go up. If it remains to the south and remains weaker, the more west it will likely go (GFS/EURO), which brings in Belize and Honduras more into the equation. (See the cone) Right now odds slightly favor it going the west route.
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Fairhopian
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
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The 11 a.m. Discussion observes the anomaly of improved banding/outflow yet higher pressure/lower windspeed. Now, the latest WV sat frame shows a very symmetrical convective burst directly over the center. Does the dry air ingested at the mid level explain the anomaly? Does the convective burst at center expel the dry air at the mid level, and thereby allow the strengthening to resume? I know that we are not watching an EWR, because this is only a TS and we of course have no eye, but can a TS sometimes go thru a phase where the process of growing stronger actually makes it temporarily weaker, other than the outright reforming of the center at a new location?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The overall look of the system on satellite vs recon reports is a bit troubling, I don't think the mid-level dry air did much other than make the heat engine sputter in the storm, the pattern above it is setting up potential for a fairly rapid intensification phase, especially as it moves into the extremely warm waters of the Northwest Caribbean.
The warmest Caribbean waters are roughly in a box with the western tip of Cuba in one corner and Jamaica in the other. is forecast to stay south of that, but the waters there are still quite warm (warmer than where it is now)
In short it's a pretty good bet becomes a hurricane tomorrow, and has an honest shot at becoming a Major in the western Caribbean Monday or Tuesday.
Note the latest recon fix is further north than the first forecast position from the 11AM EDT forecast.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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I am just as lost as many others including the which has no idea why the pressure is rather high 1005-1006mb and winds near 50mph?? The satellite has the presentation of a strong tropical storm at least and its overall structure has continued to greatly improve are we getting set to see a rapid period of intensification? It would appear so as it has the warm ocean ahead, low shear, and a well structured storm all which points that way, and agree with what Mike said with this having good shot at becoming major cane early next week possibly. I am not so sure about its future track dont want to go to in depth but the more latitude it gains over the next 36hrs the better chance the /HWRF maybe right. For now agree with track but chnges are sure to happen.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I am having a hard time with the W movement sustaining itself all the way into MX ATM and I guess it could Mike but the cloud structure looking more Northerly and further W almost like the high to the N is relaxing some.It might just be that an anti-cyclone is building overhead allowing the expansion(?).The ECMF has this storm dead in six hours definitly do not see that occurring to much heat in the water,nice structure and getting further from SA coastline every hour.I do not know maybe by tomorrow evening the developing story will start to shed a few more pages but it sure is remimding me of 's track same low movement across the Atlantic.
Edited by javlin (Sat Aug 04 2012 04:32 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Javlin, I'm seeing the same northward expansion of the higher clouds. The clouds on the western/ leading edge of the storm envelope appear to be stunted or sheared. Possibly due to the dry air ahead. I'm currently Not seeing any moistening of the area ahead of . That's just a tad strange.
Another note. has pulled in the skater's arms, so to speak. The satellite floater is indicating a dense area with rapid rotation, high vorticity. If you look real close you can see the clouds resemble a supercell thunderstorm. Or clay on a Potter's wheel.
I don't think this is a sign of a decaying storm. Even though RECON has found a pressure rise during the latest pass through the Center. is just coming out of Dmin. Or the diurnal minimum.
He is definitely a strange system!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm going to nit pick the latest Vortex Message. My notes are in Bold
I don't question as they are the experts. but I don't see a wind near 60 mph, as the Advisory shows. I'm still looking at the data.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 00:32Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 0:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°06'N 71°49'W (15.1N 71.8167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (387 km) to the S (172°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,492m (4,895ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 44kts (From the SE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 114 nautical miles (131 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) pressure/ wind relationship should equal 68 mph. is below the pressure/ wind curve.
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,582m (5,190ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,563m (5,128ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)21C temp and 14C dew point is a 7 degree spread. Steady state storm.
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19kts (~ 21.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 0:29:00Z
Mission Number:05
Agency:Air Force
Time:08/05 01:05:00Z
Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure:1006.6mb (~29.72 inHg)
Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.):43kts (~49.4mph)
Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) SFC. Wind:45kts (~51.7mph)
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 04 2012 09:26 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Tropical Storm reminds me of Claudette in 2003 and Lili in 2002, both tropical storms in the Caribbean with impressive satellite appearances but lacking the surface vigor to match.
Lili discussions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/LILI.shtml
Lili satellite imagery: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/2002/
Claudette discussions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/CLAUDETTE.shtml
Vertical wind shear was the suspected limiting cause in those cases, whereas for the cause is less clear. The most recent discussion hypothesizes that dry air may be the culprit, but it is unknown whether that dry air has actually been able to infiltrate the inner core. Some of the available model guidance from last night (early AM Sat 8/4) suggests that it could have, but that guidance is 24 h old now.
Regardless of the cause, cases like and those that came before it highlight that satellite-based intensity estimation techniques such as the technique, while wonderful tools, are not always perfect. Cases like these that throw us a curve, keep researchers busy, and keep operational forecasters on their toes!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Irene at times did not correlate at the surface .... winds seemed weaker often at the surface despite satellite presentation...
Each storm is different.
Agreed, is weird in many ways.... a puzzle to figure out.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Clark,Welcome back!
I did see some evidence of dry air on the last dropsonde. Temperature and dewpoint spread was about 10 degrees F at 850mb, 5000 foot flight level.
If we could get a couple of higher dropsondes it might help out. But they would probably miss the meat of the Storm.
Level:850mb ,Geo. Height:1,486m (4,875 ft), Air Temp.:21.2°C (70.2°F) Dew Point:Approximately 15°C (59°F) Wind Direction:125° (from the SE) Wind Speed:4 knots (5 mph)
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archiv...&mission=05
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Fairhopian
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
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It would appear that the convection at 's core has suddenly waned, which I presume would be indicative of a weaker TS that is more susceptible to the timing of the diurnal minimum? (I'm still learning) However, at the same time there is new convection firing on the extreme periphery of 's NW and SW quadrants, which seems to show that the once dry environment in that area is now being moistened by the approaching storm, which I presume would be indicative of a stronger TS? Or maybe 's neck-breaking pace is just too fast for its convection to keep up with, so is leaving it behind and making some more up ahead. Personally, I think is strong but so fast that, for the moment, he's just too difficult to accurately measure. So we'll just have to wait until he slows down a bit, maybe south or southwest of Jamaica, before we can properly size him up. Maybe the somehow picks up on 's cloaked strength, and is pulling him North for that reason, and for reason of that ULL in the Western Gulf, as Daniel has reasoned in the Forecast Lounge.
Edited by Fairhopian (Sun Aug 05 2012 01:57 AM)
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