Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

11:00AM EDT 25 August 2012 Update
Hurricane Issac is now approaching the Keys, still with 65mph maximum sustained winds. Recon is on its way to check it out.

Hurricane watches have been dropped for the East Florida Coastline, but still are up for the Florida Keys.

The model runs have been trending west, and as a result, Hurricane Watches are now up westward to Morgan City, LA (From Inidian Pass, FL) This includes New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

The timeline for the Gulf landfall is Wednesday morning between Gulfport and Biloxi, MS. However, the National Hurricane Center notes there is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast currently.

7:00AM EDT 25 August 2012 Update

Hurricane watches have been put up from the mouth of the Mississippi river eastward to Indian pass, Florida. Note this does NOT include New Orleans. And the tropical storm watches along the west coast of Florida are now Tropical Storm Warnings.

Isaac attempted to get more convection overnight but was blocked a bit by dry air to the southwest. It still is forecast to become a hurricane near time it crosses Key West (in between forecast points), but it may be close call, it's been almost 2500 days since a Florida hurricane hit, and it will be a close call for the keys..

Most or the areas of rain are to north and east of the center, and the bands are already starting to roll in in south Florida. Central Florida will start to see some of the outer bands later this morning. The center of Isaac is expected to be a hurricane most or all of its time in the Gulf. The official forecast currently takes it into Alabama early Wednesday morning, August 29th.

There is a lot of spread in the models, the entire Hurricane Watch area needs to watch this closely and make preparations, the areas immediately around where the center makes landfall and a good deal east will feel the worst Storm Surge Probabilities for Isaac storm surge from the storm..

11:00PM EDT 25 August 2012 Update
Isaac has slowed forward motion, but the forecast track remains nearly the same.

Tropical Storm Warnings have replaced the watches along the west coast of Florida from Bonita Springs to Tarpon Springs, and watches were put up north of there along the big bend west to Indian Pass, FL (Just east of Port St. Joe).

Isaac has a large windfield and conditions tomorrow in the Keys will be bad at times, with some potential for surge and very high waves there. South Florida will likely get some heavy squalls and Tropical Storm Force winds. (Surf and winds are already fairly brisk there)

8:45PM EDT 25 August 2012 Update
Tropical Storm Isaac continues riding just offshore of the coast of northern Cuba, at a healthy clip of about 20 MPH. On this course, the cyclone's core should remain just offshore, and have better access to very warm waters.

Isaac is embedded within a convoluted low, mid and upper air consortium.

At the surface, a trough draped just south of Florida has been enhancing Isaac's outer convection in that region since yesterday. Oddly enough, a secondary surface trough, much more associated with Isaac, and with a notable vorticity center, is presently located south of central Cuba, just west-northwest of Jamaica, and is cyclonically looping around Isaac from the south in what appears to be an outright Fujiwhara effect.

Uper level lows to Isaac's west, east and northeast are enhancing outflow on his eastern flank, while also keeping dry air locked in to his west.

All said, the forecast for Isaac is a very tricky one, and we do not envy the Hurricane Center tonight. With this qualifier, it does appear that the cyclone may enter a region potentially very favorable for Rapid Development in the two to three day time frame.

Great discussions on this very unusual tropical storm and challenging forecast are taking place in Isaac's Forecast Lounge .
Ciel

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5:45PM EDT 25 August 2012 Update
Isaac's center of circulation, based on visible satellite and a recon vortex message, if now north of Cuba and heading Northwest to west northwest, which should put it near the Florida Keys tomorrow afternoon. Beyond this it has a chance to organize in the gulf, so those in the northern and northeastern Gulf coasts will want to watch Isaac's path very very closely.

Isaac has struggled today, and on infrared, and water vapor satellite it appears a bit ragged, although the center of circulation seems to have survived. Most of the convection associated with the storm is east of the center currently.

Isaac has picked up forward motion again, moving quickly at 21MPH.

1PM EDT 25 August 2012 Update

1PM EDT 25 August 2012 Update
This just updates the changes to Watches/Warnings issued at 11AM:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

ED

7AM EDT 25 August 2012 Update
Isaac had a relative movement from NW to NNW overnight, leaving it over Haiti for only a brief period. Isaac was disrupted, but not much. It's weakened down to 60mph (from 70mph last night). It's now back over water, and heading toward eastern Cuba. It looks as if it will only be over Cuba briefly as well, therefore it is unlikely to be disrupted much more. Although more recently, recon has found a slightly weaker storm.

Unfortunately, this means Hurricane Warnings are now in affect for the Keys, as a category 1 hurricane is now expected to cross the central Keys, with still some uncertainty how far east or west it actually gets. If Isaac manages to avoid Cuba more, it could possibly become stronger.

The hurricane warning extends through the entire Keys, from Ocean Reef/Key Largo all the way to the dry Tortugas, and includes Florida Bay as the southwest coast of Florida up to Bonita Sprints. No watches/warnings have been issued for points north of that along the west coast. Hurricane Watches also extend up to Jupiter along the east coast.

On the east coast, Tropical Storm Warnings are up to Jupiter, and lake Okeechobee, and then Tropical Storm watches extend from Jupiter up to the Brevard/Indian River county line at Sebastian Inlet.

Interestingly there is a strong area of weather over the Keys/South Florida that isn't a core part of Isaac, but is causing a bit of stormy weather now, making any preparations difficult in the Keys. If you do get a quiet moment there, take advantage of it.

For local information on what to do, please see your local news/officials,.

Beyond the Keys/South Florida those in the Northern Gulf, and along the West coast of Florida should watch Isaac very closely as well.

11PM EDT 24 August 2012 Update

Important Changes with watches and warnings at 11PM:

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

Please check local media and officials for advice in your particular area.

Winds with Isaac have increased to 70mph, just shy of hurricane strength. With land interaction with Haiti, it may weaken a bit, but depending on how long it stays over land, it could regain strength before approaching the Florida Keys.

The short term track is slightly east, but it moves more westward than the prior track after approaching the Keys.

A weakness in ridge appeared which allowed the system to nudge a bit more north than originally projected, and it shifted the short term track east a bit, long turn Isaac is still expected to turn back more to the west, but the point it does it a bit of concern. With the current forecast track, time over land will be minimal which should allow the storm to restrengthen once north of Hispaniola/Cuba.

Because of this possibility, hurricane watches were forced up. More watches/warnings for further up the west coast are likely as the storm moves northward.

Some offshoot storms are already over South Florida, but the main convection remains south of Haiti. When Isaac approaches, it will likely cover most of the state with rain and wind Sunday afternoon, Evening, and parts through Tuesday. South Florida would see it sooner,, ie Sunday Morning as Issac approaches.

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Original Update
Isaac is now an upper-end Tropical Storm with a well-defined center of circulation and solid banding features. In fact, within just the past few hours, there is a hint of a weak eye trying to form.

In the near term, the greatest forecast challenges for Isaac have to do with how much land interaction he is going to have, and how much of it is going to be mountainous. It is expected that the cyclone will quickly pass over western Haiti and eastern Cuba, with little serious deterioration to its core, allowing Isaac to then ride along the northern coast of Cuba, slowly restrengthening.

The above is made even a little more complicated by the fact that Isaac has been trending stronger, and heading a little more north than expected, likely in response to being much better organized this afternoon.

This forecast is truly threading the needle, and it would not be surprising to see meaningful changes, up or down, east or west, to Isaac's forecast, as the cyclone makes its way through this region, which basically means that everyone within and just outside the large Cone of Uncertainty should be taking necessary precautions by this time.

Keep in mind that the Isaac has tropical storm winds extending up to 185 miles from the center. This is a relatively large tropical cyclone, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now up for Andros Island, with Tropical Storm Watches up for the northwestern Bahamas, and all of the Florida Keys, the Florida east coast south of Jupiter Inlet, the Florida west coast south of Bonita Beach, Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee. These are in addition to the watches and warnings immediately in Isaac's path.