Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

9 AM Update 28 October 2012
The northeast motion will likely continue today, the pressure is actually lower than yesterday, yet the wind field around the center is about the same, mainly because more energy is away from the center of Sandy. The northwestern side of the storm is being pulled north, and the dry air to the south continues.

In short, this translates to a very ugly day along the Outer Banks, and starting to get progressively worse along the DelMarVa, Sandy is still forecast to hook back left and cross somewhere between the delmarva and eastern long island possibly with an even lower pressure than now. This would enhance the winds and storm surge along the entire landfall area. Models continue to show the system hooking westward while continuing to deepen right up until landfall.

High Wind warnings are up along the coast north of North Carolina, but they are splitting hairs on when the difference between tropical and non-tropical transition occurs and either way hurricane force winds or gusts will be felt along many areas along with extremely long periods of tropical storm force winds, many of it onshore.

Again today the north facing sound coastlines will be at risk for storm surge in eastern North Carolina, as well as north facing beaches along the outer banks.. Hatteras is vulnerable when the storm moves far enough north for the west wind to be a bit more pronounced.

Original Update
After weakening this morning to a tropical storm, aircraft recon has found Sandy regaining strength, and is back to a category 1 hurricane again as it moves into being a hybrid storm.

Most of Sandy's convection is on the northern and western sides, in fact the south and east sides of Sandy have quite a bit of dry air. This is leaving south Florida clear this morning (with only lingering winds and surf), but central and northeastern Florida has seen most of the rain shield move offshore as well.
South and North Carolina are now getting the lion's share of the rain from Sandy and the coasts there are going to feel the affects of the storm, the southern ends of the sounds inside the outer banks may see some flooding.

Sandy is expected to stay about where it is now intensity wise at least over the next day. After that more of the interaction with the trough/front occurs and it may actually get stronger despite becoming less and less tropical. It may very well still have a warm core up until close to landfall.

Forecast models have mostly consolidated on a landfall impact Monday evening in New Jersey, just south of New York City, which is not good news for Long Island and NYC. It could have impacts similar to the 1938 Long Island Express, which saw an immense amount of surge along the area and created Shinnecock Inlet, The extra energy that will occur with the front and polar systems injecting energy will allow for a long period of onshore winds that drive surge along quite a large area. Points north of landfall will likely see the worst surge, possibly for quite a distance north along the coast. Areas that have not seen coastal flooding in decades may do so from this storm.

It is likely that travel will be disrupted in the northeast airports during parts of the storm, possible lasting a few days at certain locations.

In short the riding from the approaching cold front interacting with Sandy will create a rather sharp pressure differential which increases the wind, and the moisture from sandy hitting the cold air behind the front forces extra moisture to form, and precipitation which results in massive rainstorm on the warm side of the front, and incredible amounts of snow on the colder side. The large amount of wind drives more water along the route, which would push water up the river and onto the shore, including the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island, and points north. Those south will see more offshore wind, but still quite a bit of impact. It is possible the area near the center will see record low pressures.

Note the current large wind field of has a rough diameter of 105 miles of hurricane force winds and 450 miles of tropical storm force winds, and this area will likely grow by landfall. Gale conditions may start in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow.

Power outages are likely to be extremely widespread across the northeast starting Monday (and Monday night into Tuesday in particular). Restoration in certain areas may take weeks.