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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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News Talkback >> 2017 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
July in the Tropics
      #97702 - Sat Jul 01 2017 08:25 AM

2:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update
The Atlantic now has two disturbances being highlighted in the NHC Tropical Weather Update. While not stated explicitly, it is possible that Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be issued later today on Invest 95L, and persons with interests in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin preparing for the possibility of heavy weather.
-Ciel



1:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Update

The area of low pressure that is roughly 950 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is now being tracked as Invest 95L. This disturbance has become slightly more organized today, and conditions appear favorable for continued slow development, and a tropical cyclone could form prior to the Low reaching the Lesser Antilles. Recon has been tentatively tasked to fly into this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
-Ciel

11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Update

A trough of low pressure in the central Atlantic is being monitored for signs of organization. Conditions for TC genesis are only marginally favorable, but some slow development is possible while the area of disturbed weather tracks west, and conditions could become a little more favorable next week.

Elsewhere, the residual moisture and troffiness of former TD4 are now entering the northwesternmost portions of the Gulf of Mexico, adding to showers and thunderstorms in Louisiana and Texas. Redevelopment odds are close to zero.
-Ciel

9:30PM EDT 2 July 2017 Update

The wave in the far east Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 94L, there's a lot of time to watch this one as it won't near the Caribbean until next weekend, and if it comes closer won't be near here until 10-15 days away. Right now it's too soon to tell.


Original Update

After a busy mid June, the end of June was very quiet in the Atlantic basin, the first few days of July are also quiet, but there are signs that may change later in the coming week.

July typically is a transition month, many times after early activity July winds up being fairly quiet. We start looking a bit further east for development, especially toward August, but a few things still tend to pop up from time to time.

There is a currently low chance wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that may develop mid next week, right now only a 20% chance. The setup for this area is such that even if it does develop, it may not directly affect any land areas. But it is something to watch. Speculation and model discussion can be found in the Forecast Lounge for the system.

Beyond that, typical areas to watch during July are the Gulf, western Caribbean, and along the Bahamas/East coast. None of which have anything in the shot term.


Invest 95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Four Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#4


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#4 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#4 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#4

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#4
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#4 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jul 17 2017 02:40 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: July in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #97713 - Tue Jul 04 2017 07:08 AM

A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued this morning, signaling that 94L is very likely to become a depression or storm later today,.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 33.3W TO 12.6N 38.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 33.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED
THAT IT HAS A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA
ALSO SHOW THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 30
TO 35KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050700Z.//


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: July in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #97743 - Sun Jul 16 2017 10:42 PM

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 16 JULY 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 17/1500Z C. 18/0930Z
D. 11.5N 52.5W D. 12.0N 57.0W
E. 17/1800Z TO 17/2200Z E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING
AT 19/0530Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.


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