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#Chantal continues eastbound in the Atlantic. Now closely watching a new area of Interest near the Bahamas with 20% odds
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Barry) , Major: 316 (Michael) Florida - Any: 316 (Michael) Major: 316 (Michael)
38.8N 43.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
E at 17 mph
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News Talkback >> 2019 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in the Open Atlantic
      #99984 - Sun Jul 28 2019 03:30 PM

10:30 PM AST 20 August 2019 Update
Invest 97L rapidly organized throughout the day (and night) while heading east out to sea, and has become the fourth Tropical Cyclone and third named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No threat to land for the foreseeable future, if ever.
-Ciel


The 2PM Outlook shows a 20% chance for development in the system in the east Atlantic later this week as it moves toward Hispaniola and later the Bahamas,there is several days to watch as the system develop, which isn't expected until it gets north of the Caribbean islands. This system is being tracked as invest 95L.


It will most likely stay east of Florida, but the forecasting models seem to behind the curve on the current state of this system, so it's wise to monitor it closely. See the forecast lounge for more speculation on this system. The overall pattern suggests any systems that develop in early August will likely curve away from the US.


Chantal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chantal - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chantal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chantal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chantal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chantal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99985 - Sun Jul 28 2019 04:34 PM

Caribbean radar mosaic recording:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?455


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99986 - Mon Jul 29 2019 11:34 AM

Gulfstream IV is sampling eastern Gulf and heading across middle of the State
right now. Helpful Data when or if 95 develops.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99987 - Tue Jul 30 2019 10:51 AM

Convection North of Puerto Rico looking very healthy this morning although the system appears severely tilted to the NE with the broad vorticity center headed off to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Hard to tell, from Satellite if there is any low level spin under the convective blob. Next 24 hours should tell a lot. Shear decreasing closer to the Bahamas.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: craigm]
      #99988 - Tue Jul 30 2019 11:37 AM

Maybe upgraded at the 2 o'clock. Just pulled this off of South Florida Water Management site: Unless I'm reading this wrong.

Tue Jul 30 11:04:20 EDT 2019

WTNT80 EGRR 300355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 69.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2019 13.5N 69.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Looks like I called that one wrong

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Tue Jul 30 2019 01:59 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 151
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: craigm]
      #99989 - Wed Jul 31 2019 08:33 AM

Eh. I think sometimes TD is used instead of tropical disturbance.

Hopefully the wave off of Africa will blow. About time for the CV season to kick off.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99994 - Fri Aug 02 2019 01:38 PM

set up a recording for the area (A surface trough) Northwest Of Key West. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?456

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 151
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99995 - Sat Aug 03 2019 04:55 AM

Wow, you made it dissappear!

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 124
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: Doombot!]
      #100006 - Thu Aug 08 2019 07:43 PM

www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season NOAA declared El Nino is over. Predicting now that a above normal season for rest of season.

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 302
Loc: Southeast, FL
97L [Re: MikeC]
      #100021 - Tue Aug 20 2019 08:50 PM Attachment (6 downloads)

97L is back up to 40% convection has been firing around a decent circulation, and at times, a small CDO, hope they name it and not let it get away.

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 302
Loc: Southeast, FL
Tropical Storm Chantelle [Re: MikeC]
      #100023 - Tue Aug 20 2019 10:34 PM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 56.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Chantal was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.2 West.
Chantal is moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 302
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in the Open Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #100031 - Wed Aug 21 2019 06:12 PM

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. An area of disturbed weather extends over the Central and Northwest
Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Some slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days as it moves toward the
Florida peninsula and then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch


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