Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Satellite images suggest that the system is already a Tropical Depression. notes 30kts and a pressure of 1009mb. Pressure is probably a bit lower. At 19/18Z the center of the formative TD was at 12.3N 43.5W with movement to the west or perhaps slightly north of due west at 10kts. Structure is excellent with banding features and good outflow to the southeast. Outflow is somewhat restricted to the west - probable cause is a narrow band of weak southerly shear. System is likely to reach tropical storm strength on Sunday. Position and strength of the Atlantic ridge suggest a west northwest movement for the next few days. Erika should reach hurricane strength prior to her passage through the north central Caribbean islands on Tuesday (at least that seems like the projected track based on forecasted conditions). A continued west northwest movement through the Caribbean Sea is likely on Wednesday and Thursday - at that time, southerly shear may cause some weakening. A significant cold front (for this time of year) is expected to push toward the southeastern states late next week and Erika could begin a more northwesterly course under the influence of the front on Friday (still too early to tell).
It is interesting to look back in history at the storms which have developed or moved through the current location of the system. Names like Hugo, Bertha, Andrew, Frederick, Cleo, Donna and David would be on that list. Most of the storms that have passed through this area when they were developing have eventually reached hurricane strength and many of them have had an impact on the United States. Monitor this one closely during the week - it could become a significant system.
ED
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well written ED and agree this could be a strong cane. Some of the models hint at upper air anticyclone over head of the system. So starting to think that the upper trough/shear over northern caribbean will be helped west as anticyclone pushes west/northwest with system. Ridge and strong trough(?) play a big roll and will make for an intresting week.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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|
Development a little slower than originally expected - environment ahead of the system is still dry and the forward speed has remained on the high side. Otherwise, the future Erika is holding together nicely and has developed deeper convection, primarily to its NNE, this afternoon/evening. Movement, with consideration for a slight wobble, has been almost due west for the past 6 hours. Center is still fairly easy to locate on IR and at 23Z it was at 13.4N 52.9W. Wouldn't surprise me to see a slight southward adjustment of the track in the near term and a more northward adjustment of the track in the far term (hard to ignore the UKMET). I'd still anticipate hurricane strength in 72 hours - system seems to be far enough north to avoid the disruptive effects of northern South America.
Cheers,
ED
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Also the faster motion of this system may give it a better chance of being pulled further north with a weakness in the ridge and trough moving off the east coast.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Well it looks like Erika is not on the immediate horizon. TD6 is no more, although a slight chance does exit for regeneration - but not for a few days. I thought that this one had an opportunity but no excuses - not a very good forecast. For those of you who forecast as a hobby or those who are considering Meteorology as a profession, don't be discouraged when a forecast doesn't pan out. Just try to figure out why, learn from the experience, and move on to the next forecast (and keep in mind that sometimes it takes a lifetime of learning). Prerequisites for this business are a thick skin and an open mind. Don't 'crow' too much on a good forecast. For one thing, folks will expect that of you (and no one wants to hear that, because there will be plenty of times when you will have no opportunity whatsoever to 'crow'  ). Meteorology is a challenge which can sometimes be both frustrating and rewarding in the same day.
TD6 probably fell victim to a very dry surrounding environment. Earlier today the WV showed a system totally surrounded by dry air - even to the east where it had already traveled!
Cheers,
ED
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