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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: early september crest [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #53676 - Sat Sep 03 2005 09:20 PM

GG, I'm with you on this "critter thing". I only have one critter right now, a middle aged tabby, but I've been paying attention to her behaviour lately. She is typically aloof, doesn't talk much unless she wants something. But a couple of days before Katrina she started talking all the time, and she followed me around. Well, she started that earlier this afternoon. Something is up.

Bill


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: early september crest [Re: BillD]
      #53688 - Sat Sep 03 2005 11:18 PM

critters, huh. well, i usually sort of shake my head at it, 'cause mine are nuts no matter what the weather is doing... but i will relate what my brother has to say about all that. a great historian is he, or at least a history major. he likes to play the roman army priest of Mars: equivalent to today's chaplain, only a pagan heathen. and of course, how better to prophesy than to read the auguries in a sacrificial goat's entrails. to quote my brother: "Mars will favor us on the field today. We shall meet the enemy head on and tear through their ranks... they will rout in fear as their leader shall fall quickly. Says so right here on the liver... oh yes, and partly cloudy, high sixty six... steady breeze out of the northwest."
the kid keeps telling me that i'm just a modern day soothsayer with my weather addiction... i usually just tell him something about how stratocumulus lines show up very well on shortwave infrared imagery at night, or how an asymmetric wind field makes a storm do little cycloidal kinks on its track. we've agreed to disagree.
by the way, read the 1030 TWO. NHC sees that steady convective burst near 24/66. not an invest on it... if that's still looking like it does by daylight tomorrow that'll be coming. nothing yet of the feature we're watching for further west... models don't really resolve it until about monday. 92L still has a broad turning and spotty convection. it's getting over water warmer.. could be a watcher again if it persists.
HF 0318z04september


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: early september crest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #53693 - Sun Sep 04 2005 07:41 AM

HK.....NRL agrees as 93L is up. I am getting an error right now on NRLs page but I think they are refering to this feature in the 5am TWO:

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN
INCREASING THIS MORNING... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The Sat also covers the area we are watching in the Bahamas as well, but that little spin to the NE seems more sinister right now and a better Invest at this time, although it is likely just for the fishys.

Edited by stormchazer (Sun Sep 04 2005 07:49 AM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: early september crest [Re: stormchazer]
      #53696 - Sun Sep 04 2005 08:18 AM

Good morning all. Looks like some broad cyclonic turning starting to develop off the SE coast of FL. All of the global models have indicated over the last several days a closed low developing from the old surface trough that migrated southward and now stalled over south FL. 00Z CMC takes the low across the south half of the peninsula, into the GOM to NO. 00Z NOGAPS & UKMET move it slowly up the easy coast of FL and deepen it. 06Z GFS runs it up the middle of the state and then NE. From NWS Tampa Bay 2 AM Disc:

MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON SOME SORT OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A MORE DEVELOPED
LOW ONTO THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT
PAINFULLY SLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH AND LOWER
POPS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE REVERSE.
PRE-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AS MENTIONED IN TPC'S LATE EVENING TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK. BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE LOW CENTER IN QUESTION FOR
MID-WEEK IS ACTUALLY A NEW ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE INITIAL
LOW LIFTS OUT. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS LOW BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT IF AND WHEN THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
RJB


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: early september crest [Re: Ron Basso]
      #53702 - Sun Sep 04 2005 10:37 AM

It is interesting the model divergence on the Bahamas-area lows. GFS and NOGAPS develop the central of the three lows and send it north into the Carolinas. GFDL develops the easternmost low and sends it out to sea. CMC decides to be the strangest of the models and develops both the westernmost and easternmost lows (but not the central low that GFS and NOGAPS see), sending the eastermost out to sea, and moving the westernmost across FL and into the gulf coast. This seems to be one system that only time will tell what will happen with.

According to the 8:05am EDT TWD, there is a new Tropical Wave that has moved off of Africa.

It looks like, based on the 11am update, that Hurricane Maria will hit Category 2 before dieing down. Its path keeps it entirely out to sea.

============

Updating for the 11am TWO:

92L, renamed 92L again, is being watched for development...again.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 04 2005 12:15 PM)


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