doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 780
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Just checked the SATS and, maybe it's just me, there is not anything there any more. EDS>
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doug
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longtracker
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
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There is still a circulation center over the Bight of Gonave---the place bewteen the two 'arms' of Haiti.
Looks like that's all folks!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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looks like hispaniola killed it. still model rumblings with the persistent trough that spawned 97L that probably are about as accurate (little/no development). not quite ready to put the last nail in the coffin of the 2003 season as of yet, only nearly so.
it's about time to start making the 2004 crystal ball predictions. at least if the point is to not parrot gray or other forecasters/agencies that like to make educated guesses at what next year will be like. right now i'm thinking weak el nino with more of the same (mjo triggered bursts) and slightly lower totals than this season. i'll get something together around thanksgiving, next week. probably a forum post where everybody can display their thoughts.
HF 1910z18november
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Discussing tropical activity around Haiti and blaming Haiti for breaking up any circulation. Make a cake for Bastardi's Daddy on this one..
Watching a beautiful front sweep across the state of florida and see some activity down in the Atlantic but right now nothing looks like its going to come to life.
Wishing doesn't make it so and rules are meant to be broken so if there is some lull between fronts don't count out possible development on a small scale.
But, for now.. as they say.. looks like that's all folks indeed.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, it's not November 30th yet...but I'll hazard a guess we're not going to get to Odette. Next up: Alex in 2004. I guess a few of you will be posting 2004 predictions soon. Maybe I'll take a crack at it...gotta do a bunch of research first though. Thanks for getting me thru Isabel and beyond. 
Hey Ed, now that the season's about over, maybe you want to change the site back so non-registered posters can post...I mean, it is real quiet -- probably anyone checking this board is (hopefully) not a wacko!
By the way, here is an EXCELLENT article about the potential impacts of NWS issuing 5 day forecasts, as opposed to the old 3-day ones.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Low-ish looking spin down that way. check it out..if anyone is still stoppin by...
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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no more s being issued, but that deep layer low 1000 mi east of bermuda or so may be detaching from the frontal structure nearby (like olga did a couple years back). worth a look. it doesn't look tropical, but it is starting to look sub-tropical. not going to post a forecast thread in the forum after all, just throw out my 2004 numbers: 11-6-3. think a weak el nino will persist through next season.
HF 2134z02december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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those guys already trumped my numbers, so they won't look like much if they get 'em right. except when you consider i've just about nailed 'em dead on three years running. luck, baby.
HF 2137z02december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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third of december, and there's an invest. no, not that gale center out in the central atlantic (not developing), but in the sw caribbean. what's more is that it has some banding features, maybe a weak low pressure. add to that, globals seem to like it for the next couple of days. then perhaps, hurricane zombies like us can go back to sleep. until june 2004.
HF 1546z03december
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L
INITIAL TIME 12Z DEC 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.7 76.9 45./12.0
6 12.0 77.9 286./10.4
12 12.6 78.2 337./ 6.6
18 13.0 78.7 308./ 5.9
24 13.7 78.5 15./ 7.2
30 14.4 78.9 328./ 8.8
36 14.1 78.9 178./ 2.8
42 14.3 78.1 77./ 8.3
48 15.3 77.7 25./10.0
54 16.3 76.2 56./17.5
60 17.9 75.0 36./20.0
66 19.7 74.4 18./19.0
72 21.4 73.2 36./20.3
78 23.1 72.0 35./20.3
84 24.5 69.5 61./26.2
90 26.8 66.4 54./36.6
96 29.4 62.7 55./41.5
STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Now back to sleep....
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Whats happening... someone talk .. last I heard on local news out of South Florida was that they weren't expecting anything to develop. Have they changed their tune?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Possible fish spinner..... don't see much else 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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fish spinner in the caribbean? ringed by islands? not possible, unless it completes its life cycle without moving much. a fish spinner is a storm that stays far out to sea in the atlantic, not any storm that fails to hit the united states.
true this is only a potential threat to jamaica/hispaniola.. but it is by no means a fish spinner if it develops.
HF 0100z04december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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then again, i'm not entirely sure that central atlantic feature won't offer us a reason to look. models have it failing to phase with the easterlies, meander, not exactly drying up and shearing out immediately.
of course there's 98L, with its d1.0 and good model support that may very well be an out of season storm if shear doesn't beat it senseless. hasn't been a tropical cyclone to form in december since 1984.. not one in the deep tropics since long before.
HF 0418z04december
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DSAAT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
715 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA... HISPANIOLA... SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR .
ALL INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER AVILA
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nrl has it posted as such. likely story, sucker is looking a lot better organized. have a hunch that recon is going to find 'odette', which would be superfluous and serve to skew everybody's forecast numbers at this point. but, that's life.
HF 1449z04december
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nhc has gone ahead and classified the system as t.d. 20. the upgrade has been made without recon, which will be there later today. little strengthening is forecast, they think it will move north and become sheared rather quickly. i'm not so certain, think it will get a bit stronger.. than 40kt at least. might already be there when recon arrives. since a warnings are already up we'll be getting intermediate advisories (make that 1pm est).
HF 1500z04december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Interesting. Good catch yesterday, HF. What % would you think this will become Odette? 50/50? Here's what the models are predicting...
tropical models
Global Models
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Assuming Odette forms (I actually forgot what storm name we were up to and had to check), that's quite a long stretch from first to last storm in a year (April-December).
Hope everyone in the islands is paying attention! I wasn't. Surprise, surprise...
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Wow !! Great call Hank. Well, this has turned out to be a season of surprises.
From the latest vis loop click here it sure looks impressive, despite its relative small overall size.
If this TD turns into a TS or hurricane, it will be the 2nd tropical event in recent memory to travel WEST towards the islands. The last one that I can recall going "backwards" was Lenny.
mitch...
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