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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: allan]
      #68842 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:01 PM

So much for the slow start to the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

I don't know what to make of Chris. I think the intensity forecast is too low, but the track forecast is troublesome. If this thing gets into the GOM, I do think it'll turn north at some point... tend to favor the Mobile-to-Texas range, simply because I don't want it myself!

Did the NHC misprint something in the 530pm AST Special Advisory? It says the intermediate advisory will be issued at 730pm AST, and the next full advisory at 1030pmAST. Each of those times would be 30 minutes before the normal times (8pm EDT/AST and 11pm EDT/AST), wouldn't they?


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 01 2006 07:04 PM)


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #68843 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:14 PM

Who said anything about ruling out Florida? The man asked for people's thoughts and that's what I gave him. I do not think this will be a mainland Florida event, I say it again. South Florida is still very much under the gun though and will likely feel effects from Chris even if he completely misses.

Does that mean that the people in Florida don't need to worry about it? Of course NOT!

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #68844 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:16 PM

I certainly didn't say anything about ruling out Florida, and don't think anyone did. I don't expect landfall along the peninsula, but the effects will be felt.

Please use PM's for things like this...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 01 2006 07:18 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #68845 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:20 PM

The forcast track will most likely go back and forth(north and south) several times before all is said and done.It maybe a couple of days before they have a better handle on things,although the new data from recon will help.As they say,if you are in the cone pay attention to what Chris is up to.NHC is now calling for a cat 1 in 72 hours,But the way this storm has been acting don't be surprised if we have one tommorow.It is never a good thing when a storm gets stronger under adverse conditions,so expect the unexpected.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: allan]
      #68846 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:26 PM

where are you seeing debby forming at?? also up the east coast of florida?? i don't see that even if the upper level low does diminish and pull to the north some. i think the NHC track maybe a little to the north but even so i still think it will make it to the gulf.. then when will the northern turn occur... we will see if all the other models are still south of what NHC is saying.. btw it appears it maybe increasing in size a little also. the gulf temps are high which would favor increase in strength

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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Intensity question [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #68847 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:27 PM

HF...is it just me, or is it rather rare to have an initial intensity forecast (yesterday, with Chris) that could eventually prove to be this far off? Or I am I missing an environmental element that will weaken Chris along its projected path? I have been tracking and watching for years, and it just seems to me that the initial intensity forecast on this one was extremely conservative. Can you give us a rundown of why the NHC was not expecting strengthening, and why that may be incorrect? Also, its tough to tell with the CDO moving over the center now, but I see a slight jog to the north the last few frames.

Thanks and hello all.

--------------------
South Florida


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Intensity question [Re: Brett]
      #68848 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:32 PM

That's a good question. I have been looking at that intensity forecast and saying to myself that it is too low.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Intensity question [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #68849 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:38 PM

It will be an interesting couple of days here is S. FL. As most down here are thinking about Cuba and good'ole Fidel. Our attention will quickly turn to our east by Friday as we watch the approach of Chris. From Fidel to Chris, Channel 7 will have a field day with these news items!

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Intensity question [Re: Brett]
      #68850 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:43 PM

i dont expect any good real model data unitl the G-IV gets airborne.... i see NHC Recon Plan of Day **REMARKS: MISSIONS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR SUSPECT AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND G-IV MISSION ON T.S CHRIS CANCELED BY NHC AT 01/1100Z. for the 02/0000 utc flight ... the next one is on the 03/0000utc... the track depends one whats around it the system...the best way to get data.... would to be to fly the G-IV. (41-45k feet) around the system.... However i do think a GOM entrance is getting more likely by the hour.... i note the the waters are shallower ahead of the short term..... if it can beat the shear a hurricane i think is not out of the question in the next few days. I see that the convection is back over the center tonight....

also noted the latest sat... CHRIS is looking much better than a few hours ago... the channel outflow looks good, and the CDO is looking good in all direction. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg


latest recon... 52kts inbound and 59kts outbound at flight level
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 01 2006 07:47 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: andy1tom]
      #68851 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:45 PM

Out in the atlantic lots of models showing a hurricane developing. Track is very uncertain at this point. GFS wants a Cat. 2 or 3 by the end of next week.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Intensity question [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #68852 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:48 PM

At 6:50PM Dr. Lyons said he didn't see it as a South Florida event (main land). He said that it was a small storm at this time.

Though it is strange, I live in Delray Beach and one of my neighbors put her shutters up today (no, I'm not kidding).

I know we're talking about intensity, but what do people think of size?


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Intensity question [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68853 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:52 PM

ok so what is that in mph? do u have a converter?

52 knots = 60 mph, 59 knots = about 68 mph. Lets refrain from one liners and use the PM feature...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 01 2006 08:19 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Intensity question [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #68854 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:56 PM

Well Doc Lyons also did not see Chris with 60mph at 5:00 today.This storm will not travel on that skinny black line.All of Florida needs to watch this close.Does size matter?,I will leave that one alone.NL here you go: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/cwwd/msd/publicmarine/misc/windconv.htm

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Aug 01 2006 07:58 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Intensity question [Re: nl]
      #68855 - Tue Aug 01 2006 07:57 PM

hmm... maybe my eyes... its hard to tell.. but is chris slowing down and maybe a slight movement to the west?.... CHRIS is getting stronger... i have no doubt... Cloud tops are very cold (-80 to -75) . Center is under convection now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 01 2006 08:11 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Intensity question, Hurricane Chris by 11? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68856 - Tue Aug 01 2006 08:03 PM

I believe we will have a Hurricane by the 10:30 advisory which the 7:30 did not come yet. So we'll see what happens. It does look like that Chris is strengthening and moving more westward. So what will happen? Clearly nobody knows at this point.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Intensity question, Hurricane Chris by 11? [Re: allan]
      #68857 - Tue Aug 01 2006 08:07 PM

Let's try and nip this in the bud.It will jog a little to the west and it will jog a little to the north.They all wooble.This only becomes important when it is very close to the U.S. mainland or when it becomes a trend.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Aug 01 2006 08:08 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
uh oh [Re: allan]
      #68858 - Tue Aug 01 2006 08:12 PM

the upper low near the bahamas.. is backing up already. this is not good.
i'm not trying to be alarmist, but i wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane tomorrow, and a major hurricane within the next three days.
nhc is going to crank their intensity forecast way up at 11, i'd expect. that's a no-brainer.
the official takes it below south florida... through the strait. if you live in south florida start get your game plan figured out.
the 00Z runs ought to shed some light on whether those tracks to the left are kosher. i'm not sure what the stronger initial storm will result in, but my hunch is the track will shift back to the right a tad.
HF 0011z02august


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Intensity question [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68859 - Tue Aug 01 2006 08:12 PM

Just in after horribly busy day at work. Haven't had a chance to check everything out, but I'd guess the winds are now catching up. After momentarily getting sidetracked by last night's forecast, I'm back to being bullish on this one.

* * * * * *

Ok -- what's the scoop with the change in the thermal differential? It was a very impressive 6 deg, now back down to 2?

prolly just a temporary gradient from the convective burst earlier. just a guess. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 01 2006 08:16 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: uh oh [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68860 - Tue Aug 01 2006 08:23 PM

Let's just say Chris might possibly get into the Gulf. What day are we looking at down the road for a possible landfall? I know there are a lot
of ifs with this storm but just in case, are we looking at Tuesday or Wednesday or earlier?


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: uh oh [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68862 - Tue Aug 01 2006 08:28 PM

HF...it was my understanding the upper low in the Bahamas had already begun to move west...when you say "back up", do you mean something different, or is it just more dramatic now? Also, are you using the water vapor loop, or a different image to make that observation? Bob, I agree on the wobbles...but I am noticing a bit of a slow-down. Is it visible image trickery because night has fallen? It is hard to see the center under the CDO...

--------------------
South Florida


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