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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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gainesville, fl
Unregistered




Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68814 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:11 PM

Update says 60 mph now (!)

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68815 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:13 PM

Quote:



No doubt that the 5 PM intensity is conservative....... but there is a difference in INTENSITY, and ORGANIZATION.

Just because a storm is STRONG.... does not mean it is well ORGANIZED, and just because a storm is ORGANIZED... doesnt make it STRONGER.

WW-911




I appreciate the lesson, but I'm pretty well aware of the difference between an increase in strength and overall organization. Four years of studying hurricanes and weather in college helped me with that one.

If you don't see the increase in overall organization of Chris in the last 24 hours, you're just missing it.

The overall signature of the system along with the fact that it has very good outflow now are signs that it's BETTER ORGANIZED. And yes, a storm that is becoming better organized usually leads to a stronger system.

The kicker is that it's doing all of this totally surrounded by dry air and that speaks volumes for the system as a whole.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
spike [Re: gainesville, fl]
      #68816 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:14 PM

60 mph, eh? probably over a small area... 45-50 mph is probably more representative of the intensity. the 5pm track is shifted to the keys. i don't know how much to buy into that southerly track just yet. namely because i don't think it's going to be as weak as the forecast indicates.
HF 2114z01august


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 762
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #68817 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:16 PM

60mph and the pressure is down to 1003mb.I did not think it would get this strong this quick.Seatbelts guys!!!!(just heard this from local met)

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Aug 01 2006 05:19 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #68819 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:24 PM

hey now, lets keep the ship tight around here. follow the forum rules on posting (i.e., don't post sentence comments, conversational stuff that belongs in PMs, quotes of entire forecast discussions we can read elsewhere with a glib comment, etc). and wx...911, i wouldn't worry about educating weatherNLU... he's kinda weather savvy already.

we're in an active time, with a real threat emerging. the forum rules are enforced more strictly at times like these... do you part and keep the discussion where it belongs and in its proper place (we've got forums for everything you can think of, and PM for personal communication and everything else). things may be very busy around here for more than a week.
HF 2123z01august


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68820 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:25 PM

URNT12 KNHC 012108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/20:41:00Z
B. 17 deg 53 min N
060 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 10 kt
E. 219 deg 096 nm
F. 228 deg 043 kt
G. 191 deg 033 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C/ 298 m
J. 30 C/ 459 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 13
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68823 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:31 PM

My apologies. I didn't mean to cause any trouble. I do disagree though that it has leveled off, if anything it continues to get more organized AND stronger. Just a difference in opinion there, and that's what this is all about......voicing opinions. Cloud tops near the center continue to get colder, and the main convective mass is increasing in size.

Not surprised they increased the intensity, but I am a little surprised that it went to 60 so quickly. I was thinking 50-55, but regardless we obviously have a fairly rapidly developing system on our hands here.

a'ite, good.. end of that discussion. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 01 2006 05:49 PM)


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68826 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:33 PM

Convection and high cloud tops are building great around the center, if this continues we will have a strong storm fast. If u think this is bad now...wait til it gets in the GOF.

--------------------


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: spike [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68827 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:34 PM

Just about to update the radar loop to include imagery through 2130 UTC. You'll note the improvement in radar presentation over the last three hours.

Given the recent intensification in such a marginal thermodynamic environment, it is disconcerting to think what will happen should the combined GFS/UKM 250MB forecasts with the NHC track forecast all pan out.

The only thing that will stop this from affecting Florida and/or the gulf coast as a hurricane is interaction with:

1) One of the two TUTT lows to its NW and NE
2) Hispanola


(1) looks like it may wind up being the only chance. It's going to have to pull a "left turn, Clyde" tonight or early tomorrow if there is to be any interaction with the "hurricane destroyer".


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: spike [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #68828 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:38 PM

Then there's the question if it gets into the Gulf, who's he (or maybe its a she) going to pay a visit to?

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl 28.27N 82.65W
Re: spike [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68829 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:39 PM

Quick question. I don't recall anyone posting about this earlier or last year even. How long is it before the models will (or not) change after the recon info is entered? And how long after the flight? I know when I checked this morning (GFS etc) none of them seemed to "see" Chris very well.

Still learning and thanks everyone!!!

(HF - I sure hope you are wrong on this one, and I know you are too)

Dotty

should be on the next set of model runs... 00Z. might actually show the storm for a change. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 01 2006 05:44 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: spike [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #68830 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:39 PM

recon on outbound had a 64kts wind at flight level.... convection is backing up over center

MF180 M0608 MF0 64 kts at flight level
OBS 01 AT 20:46:00Z
OBS 06 AT 21:09:00Z
OBS 06 SFC WND 11020
AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 15


Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 01 2006 05:41 PM)


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: spike [Re: tornado00]
      #68832 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:43 PM

While I believe it's almost silly to speculate that far out, I don't see this as a mainland Florida event unless Chris takes the somewhat northern most track into southern Florida. However, as we sit I think a track closer to the Keys is more likely.

Long term, I think from Corpus over to Mobile is the likely endpoint given the ridge that should be backing west over the SE US.

Understand that trying to guess this far out is like spending your dollar on the powerball, but that's what I see right now.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: gainesville, fl]
      #68834 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:05 PM

This intensification trend/cycle is bucking another trend...4pm or so should be the diurnal minimum Looks like HF's outflow channels are forming up.

MM


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
track [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #68835 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:06 PM

Why would you not see this affecting Fl mainland? I thought the stronger storms...of which this seems to be trying to become...were driven poleward. At which time they are influenced by any high pressure ridges & steered along the edge. I believe in that timeframe the high is forecasted to be over the central/northern Fl area.

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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: track [Re: twizted sizter]
      #68836 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:10 PM

Not to try to answer his question...... just want to throw out my own opinion...



I dont want to count out the FL penninsula just yet. Though it seem more likely Chris is headed through the FL Straights, or the Keys..... the mainland isnt out of the woods just yet.


It will however, be interesting to see how the forecast models begin to handle Chris, now that we have good fixed positions on the storm.


WW-911

Edited by weather_wise911 (Tue Aug 01 2006 06:10 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: track [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68837 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:20 PM

Why do the global models always have a hard time with small systems ?

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #68838 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:24 PM

I know this is all conjecture at this point but if Chris did affect Florida and then enter the Gulf when would that be?
I am just trying to get a time frame here, just in case.


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Solak
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #68840 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:41 PM

Here's my take on the steering.

That pesky old Texas low from last week that exited off the Carolina Coast 2 days ago is still evident on the visible, SSE of Hatteras, and still drifting SE. IMO, that SE drift is what's causing the ULL off Florida to retrograde Westward. It appears thatthe ULL will be moving slow enough to keep Chris suppressed to the FL Straits, possibly passing through the Keys overnight Sunday.

Intensity would be purely a guess, given the recent increase in windspeed with the 5:05 adjustment... A lot of time between now and the weekend to follow along.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Enter August... Tropical Storm Chris Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Solak]
      #68841 - Tue Aug 01 2006 06:56 PM

Nobody knows what Chris could do at this point. It could very well go up the east coast of FL. the strength did not surprise me at all in fact I knew it would at least be over 50 mph. Hurricane Chris tommorrow? Maybe. I think it will make it. Possible track over Florida is not out of the question. Even North Florida should moniter Chris. Supposuvly the ULL is moving west and almost out of the way for Chris to intensify. The keys is at least right now the most probability of getting hit but the NHC says models will be very good and certain by 2:00 a.m. tommorrow. Good luck on the predictions! We will see what Chris tends to do in the next few days. Also Debby should be forming this weekend.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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