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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: SOI [Re: pcola]
      #69529 - Sat Aug 05 2006 03:22 PM

Quote:

OK METS, each summer I watch these clusters of thunderstorms enter the Gulf coming off the coast. . I have not seen one develope since Danny 98. But this one seems very interesting. Look at the satalite image of the line on convection that stretches back to near pensacola.. I noticed this while outside and it really looks like a solid band stretching back to the twist in the gulf. Any of you have odds? It loooks like it is heading wsw and convection remains.




Hard for me to judge movement, but for what it's worth, you can't get any sunnier than it is in Ft. Walton Beach today. I won't place odd on a low forming, but it looks better organized to my untrained eye than Chris did at the 5pm ET advisory yesterday.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: SOI [Re: pcola]
      #69532 - Sat Aug 05 2006 04:17 PM

Quote:

OK METS, each summer I watch these clusters of thunderstorms enter the Gulf coming off the coast. . I have not seen one develope since Danny 98.




Danny was 1997 .I remember it very well cause we got 31 inches of rain in one day .

Why is Chris back on the NRL site ?

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Edited by HCW (Sat Aug 05 2006 04:36 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69533 - Sat Aug 05 2006 05:06 PM

I also still see the remnant LLC scraping Cuba this afternoon, with the remainder of what was Chris having taken the form of a classic 'Inverted V' wave. Here's my honest opinion of this feature: We need to be watching this as if it were an Invest. Interaction with land (Cuba and Florida) is helping to enhance convection, and of course, convection leads to more favorable conditions for development. I'm not writing off x-Chris. If we see a continuation of all of this convection of the Inverted V wave (with an attendant LLC of x-Chris still present on it's southern flank) once it is in the Gulf, we should really start watching it again.

Feature coming off Louisiana: This MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, or an organized system of thunderstorms - a large organized complex, if you will) does have a subtle mid-level circ. These features can, and do, occasionally work to the surface and become Tropical Cyclones.

IMHO - both of these should be watched closely, especially so because they are very close to land.

Models keep wanting to develop that wave off of Africa into a TC. I'm keeping an eye on it, too.


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: cieldumort]
      #69535 - Sat Aug 05 2006 05:16 PM

Just about all the models are keeping with a wave coming off Africa.. CMC has back WAY off though in the 12Z run compared to past ones.

RIght now, I think the Low (what's left of Chris) needs to be watched over the next 12 hours or so. Once it leaves Cuba, it's got a shot of getting it's name back. The cluster of storms near LA is an interesting feature in itself. I read up a bit on Danny ('97 season) once I got to work today. And for those who haven't looked it or don't remember. It was an MCS that moved into the Gulf further west than the one from Friday night. It took about a day to get TD status, then TS to Cat 1 hurricane after 24 hours. Basically just bounced off and on the Mississippi Coast. SO this is something I'll watch closer than the LLC over Cuba...but it would be this time tomorrow to know for sure (at the latest) if we are going to get a tropical system out of this.

You can bet that both of these areas will be closely monitored for development since they would be the more immediate threat. It will be interesting to watch the wave out in the Atlantic though... each wave has been a little more aggressive than the last...


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: ElizabethH]
      #69538 - Sat Aug 05 2006 05:39 PM

i think that the low-"chris" over cuba needs watching... i mean look at the convection now... and the area in the gulf will need a eye... pressures are still high, but been watching the buoy's for any signs of change. There is some turning, hard to tell if its the ULL to the SE... or the left over MCS.... Gulf of Mexico Vis
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html Cuba

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: ElizabethH]
      #69539 - Sat Aug 05 2006 05:42 PM

Ahh. Thank you for the correction - I retract that last statement about the eastern Atlantic wave - haven't taken a look at the models since yesterday. I was noticing the trend to back off developing it, but then did also note NHC's discussion today "A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 31W/32W BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. " which seems rather compelling.


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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69540 - Sat Aug 05 2006 06:13 PM

Is that the ULL that passed thorugh FL a few days ago or just a broad area of Low Pressure that made it's presence in the gulf? Anyone can clarify for me?

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #69541 - Sat Aug 05 2006 06:28 PM

This is not the upper level low, but, i believe the system that formed last night was a direct result of the influence of the upper level low..actually forming storms and rotating across north florida, southern GA and AL, then thru the panhandle (over my house), and into the gulf....while sitting up last night about 3am with all the fireworks, i watched the radar and waS SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST..very rare here...

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #69542 - Sat Aug 05 2006 06:31 PM

Not to sound dumb, but do you mean the Low/storms south of you in LA? Well if that is the case, then it started as a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System AKA BIG clust of storms) that moved across SW GA and the FL panhandle last night.

If you go back to page 2 on this forum there is even more explanations available including a link...hope this helps...


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #69543 - Sat Aug 05 2006 06:31 PM

I *think* you are inquiring about the feature over the northern GOM?

This would be what is left of the MCS, which formed over land - and most definitely not an Upper-Level Low. If anything, there is a decent mid-level low associated with it, as if often the case with a healthy MCS. Once over very warm waters, the do sometimes drill down. Hope that helped.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: ElizabethH]
      #69544 - Sat Aug 05 2006 07:39 PM

You know, pressures in the northern GOM are showing a clear lowering trend today. Noticed some fairly decent change of wind direction, as well.

Obs searches for the north-central GOM available here

Also, here's an overview of Buoy 42001 (Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure), located 180 NM south of Southwest Pass, La.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 05 2006 08:35 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: cieldumort]
      #69545 - Sat Aug 05 2006 07:45 PM

So maybe we'll have Debby and Ernesto by next week hmmm. I still believe Debby will develop in the ATlantic and if this low gets more organized, it will do the same thing TS Fay did with Edwourd back in 2002. It will absorb whats left of Chris and become Ernesto. Anybody agree on that? I think what was Chris is just to weak and small to get through the GOM with that huge MLL just to the north. So I believe it will be absorbed by what could be Ernesto later on next week. Or Debby, really depends on the disturbances in the Eastern Atlantic.

Check this image out and click fronts
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
Notice what was Chris's pressure is only one donw from the low in the GOM, plus the low in the GOM is moving either south or ssw. All of the gulf from FL to Texas needs to keep an eye on this one, it could blow up sometime tonight and become a low level Low. It could also go anywhere at this point.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sat Aug 05 2006 08:16 PM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: allan]
      #69546 - Sat Aug 05 2006 08:33 PM

on this radar I'm looking at the low is on the AL/MS border(over water still) and all the convection is completely to it's left and not over or near the area of low pressure. Also it shows 3 lows down by Cuba. One on the Central coast of Cuba one inland over central Cuba and the last one on the eastern side of Cuba just offshore. My question is which one are the Chris remnants and how are they looking right now and will these other 2 lows play a part in the Chris remn dying or reforming? link here's the radar I'm looking at








[image]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html[/image] web page Gulf Of Mexico Rainbow

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Sat Aug 05 2006 08:34 PM)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #69547 - Sat Aug 05 2006 08:41 PM

Well I don't know about it being at the AL/MS line because I beleive if it was that close to us we would be having thunder boomers. And it has been hot and dry here all day.

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #69548 - Sat Aug 05 2006 08:44 PM

I refreshed the radar and it is by the line it's out in the water but it's south if you draw a line from the AL/MS line here take a look at the radar ok. Gulf Of Mexico Rainbow

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #69549 - Sat Aug 05 2006 09:02 PM

Ok guys new IR from Eastern Atlantic shows a much better defined wave tonight just off the coast. Also next to that one looks to be a broad area of Low Pressure. Though better chance for the one on the right of that to develop. A burst of strong convection blew up on the top and bottom of what could be a Low this evening. So far the CMC is hitting the dot!

heres that new rainbow IR image from the coast of Africa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg
see what i'm talking about?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: allan]
      #69551 - Sat Aug 05 2006 09:26 PM

here's a cuba radar... maybe someone can mirror the images... they are every 5 mins... if not, thats okay... the storms have blown up well tonight.... and i also see a 1013mb Low Just SE on New Orleans was thrown up on surface maps..

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 05 2006 09:35 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #69552 - Sat Aug 05 2006 09:40 PM

I really think it's a bit west of your estimate. The rainbow isn't always the best at catching low-level circs - better at the mid to upper levels, IMHO. I recommend checking out the short-wave overnight, too. The RGB during the afternoon strongly suggests that the LLC is further west than it looks on the rainbow - much closer to southeast of New Orleans.

Shortwave loop

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 05 2006 09:45 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: cieldumort]
      #69553 - Sat Aug 05 2006 10:16 PM

Looks to me like Chris may be making a bit of a comeback. Can't tell if there is a LLC but certainly the convection between Miami and the coast of Cuba has increased greatly tonight.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: nothing active but stuff on the table [Re: cieldumort]
      #69554 - Sat Aug 05 2006 10:17 PM

check out the new runs for tonight?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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