pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I agree with HF...if that is the low level center out in front, and only the mid-level back at the convection, we may have a Chris repeat here. I want to see a few more loops here, and wait for recon, but this may very well be a split between the LLC and mid level cir
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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willy
Unregistered
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might want to pay attention to the swirl in the Gulf of Mexico just above the Ucatan Peninsula. :?:
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
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so why bother with cones before you have any idea about where, when and how strong?
This sort of question is better asked in one of the other forums here, where it can be expanded upon in a setting that does not distract from the conversation on TD 5 and Debby. However, since moving it would completely mess up the thread structure, I am leaving it here for now. -Clark
Edited by Clark (Fri Aug 25 2006 02:51 PM)
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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That's an ULL. Very low chances of it developing tropical characteristics. It may however spin some shear towards TD 5's way if it doesn't move outta the way quick enough. Current model forecasts are for it to head on out unfortunatley. A side note the ULL is stirring up moisture in FL bringing much needed rain to my tomato plants! 
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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I recall last year several developing storms often would have low level 'swirls' spinning around the main LLC. As I'm looking at the last couple visible images from the navy site, it seems like the low level convection is feeding towards the MLC which makes me think it is trying to reform there. Just an observation...the recon is due there when?
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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recon is there sending back obs as we speak
RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)
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000
URNT11 KNHC 251646
97779 16464 60151 65900 03000 11030 24248 /0010
41230
RMK AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 03
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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what is a mslp? im looking at one south of jamaica right now just wondering what they are. someone help me please.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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For the laymen like myself>>
Observation Time: Friday, 16:46Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.1N 65.9W
Location: 229 miles to the S (177°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (extrapolated
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Sort of off topic but relevant. Max Mayfield is retiring at the end of the year. The article is on the Sun Sentinel web page.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Aug 25 2006 01:37 PM)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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good catch ... yes, definitely looks like an exposed LLCC around 14.3N 67W, which would agree with the RECON report to the N and E of a 110/30kt wind (1000 ft altitude). Likely is the beginning of the end for #5.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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I think that is the former LLC or a vortex swirl...1 of many in the overall circulation....The midlevel low might also have a LLC field or maybe not quite there yet...but overall recon will let us know.
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EugeneF
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
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VORTEX Data
Storm CYCLONE: Observed by AF #303
Storm #05 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #05: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 25, 2006 17:15:20 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 14 ° 04 ' N 066 ° 58 ' W (14.07° N 66.97° W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 Knots (51.75 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 039 Nautical Miles (44.85 miles) From Center At Bearing 48°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 048 Knots (55.2 MPH) From 118°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 040 Nautical Miles (46 Miles) From Center At Bearing 048°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1005 Millibars (29.676 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 23°C (73.4°F) / 304 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 24°C (75.2°F) / 304 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 24°C (75.2°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 48 KT NE Quadrant at 17:01:30 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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OK you beat me to it....I was going to ask if I was halucinating or was I readin g those obs wrong. If I am correct (and I think that I am) I was stunned to see the easterly component (again) It almost seems as if 5 is playing peek-a-boo with it's COC...here I am, now I'm not, no, here I am...over here! I do not blame in the least for their calls (or lack thereof as some are saying) on this one. How can they possibly get out accurate information as far as (track/intensity, etc.) with this going on, for cryin' out loud, it doesn't even have a closed center of circulation let alone a center of circulation that can even be pinpointed from one update to the next. I do not envy them today. They're earning their keep with this one, IMHO.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Yeah, I see that too -- but I do think there is a broader turning located a bit further to the east of this vortex, perhaps around 14.25N/66W. I do think no matter what, recon is going to find the center further north of where the 11a advisory position had it, which is going to require some change to the forecast track. This is about the area where the has been calling for the storm to gain latitude toward Hispaniola for much of the past two days and I wouldn't be surprised to be seeing that happen now. Despite that, the main convection is still lagging a bit further south and there is a bit of shear at play (as HF alluded to earlier today). Shear tendencies are negative, though, and if the system can survive its reorganization phase now I think it's going to be primed for some intensification down the line. Just a hunch for now, though.
Edit -- maybe not as far east as I thought. Recon (see above) came back at 14.07N, 66.97W. That's actually pretty close to the small vortex HF mentioned. Not sure what else is out there, though.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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I believe we now have verification of what many have suspected all night -- is out there, but it's going to have a tough battle trying to keep it all together over the next 24 hours.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Correct me if I am wrong, but if the center is 14.07N and 66.97W, that would be the LLC that is exposed. If it is, HF may be correct and we could be seeing a major change in this storm, and possibly this may be as strong as it gets..
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 25 2006 01:57 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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looks like its TD5 is shooting out away from the ? there is a small vortex that has popped out as the is fading to the south... the vortex is on the nw side of the convection.. vis shot here's a wider view of carribean from goes 12
Here's a better shot of what i was talking about
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 25 2006 02:24 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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I heard that also. I'll miss seeing him talk about the storms. Weather channel said TD 5 could be classified as a TS later on today.
What does everyone think?
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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
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Well we know that it hasn't strenthened much during the day, looks to me that, that ULL is taking a toll on the system, but it is still forcasted to move away, but that hasn't happened yet.. Its in a very hostile environment and it looks to me that its going to struggle for the next 48hrs or more, if it survives the trip through the Car. it may have a chance to develop more when it goes by Jamica.. So, guess we just still need more time to get into panic mode.. But as of know when the 5pm adv. comes out its still going to be a TD. Even though the Recon found a 48kts wind speed in the NE Quad, but still a TD to me looking at the high res. visible satellite
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/devloop.html#picture
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
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The recon only confirms what I said earlier. You have one of two things:
1) The baddest open wave even known to man.
2) A tropical storm.
There can be no tropical depression here. So either they need to dis-continue the advisories (not sure why, recon sent a vortex message) or upgrade this thing to what it is, a tropical storm with winds of 45 mph and a pressure of 1005mb.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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