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Tropical Depression 5 forms in Bay of Campeche, forecast to move into Mexico Between Tuxpan and La Pesca as a Tropical Storm.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 59 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
20.1N 93.6W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1009mb
Moving:
Wnw at 13 mph
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 829
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #72350 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:33 AM

This is pure opinion, but I am thinking nothing worse that border line TS/Cat I..ala Jeanne in 2001. and 3-5 ft. if you are in the area of tidals...but so far the TS is NOT expected into the TB area directly.

--------------------
doug


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: pryord1]
      #72352 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:37 AM

Quote:

What IS that blob of convection off of the panhandle? I've been watching it all morning and can't figure out whether it's associated with Ernesto or not. Does it have any influence on the storm?




Just an area of showers and thunderstorms, no effect on the storm.
From N.W.S. Tallahassee

Edited by Jamiewx (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM)


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Jamiewx]
      #72353 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM

Thank-you for an answer!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #72354 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM

The 11 is out; they still have it coming in over the middle Key's and into the GLades, but it does a dog leg NW maybe up to or around Naples before it goes Northeast (more like nne). Still predicting a TS with 5-10 inches of rain.

Winds are 45 mph pressure is 1005 mb some strengthening is expected.

Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:40 AM)


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #72355 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:39 AM

Quote:

Hey...I just looked at the Skeetobite model animation too. I live on St. Pete Beach. Generally, I'm prepared for what I thought this storm would be as of last night -- a run up the East coast or center of state, meaning probably weak trop storm winds and light flooding on my side. I am NOT prepared for a direct hit of a cat 1/2 on my area, coming from the Gulf (which means I have to board up and evac).

In condering what to do next: say those TB models are correct or close to correct. What's the time frame for a strike (meaning how long have I got to decide what I'm doing and do what I'm doing)? And wouldn't there be a stronger likelihood of a stronger storm (strong cat 1 or cat 2) if it gets extra time over the Gulf?

Waiting for the 11 am from NHC, but one of the reasons I come here (and contribute $$ to the site) is I like to get some more views than simply the NHC track...



Don't put a lot of stock into those two models in particular. The major models have not changed substantially, but may as more data comes in from recon and other Global modeling. The only thing that matters is to make your preparations and adjust your plan appropriate to the storm's strength and track from NHC.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: tpratch]
      #72356 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM

Hurricane watch is Bonita beach, south...Ft. Myers is in theTS warning zone, not currently under a hurricane watch...this could change.

MM

Edited by MapMaster (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: doug]
      #72357 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM

This could be kinda scary situation folks....if this doesnt turn NNW...and I dont mean NW in the next 4-6 hrs..then we are looking at a Ft.Myers-Tampa landfall weds afternoon... The center itself is hard defined but it generally has a broad circulation.... The midlevel moisture continues to wrap around Ernesto...once he starts moving more NW this afternoon...he will get better organized.....I wouldnt be surprised that he does make it to Cat 1 if he moves towards more a Ft Myers landfall area.... Alot is pending on when he makes the turn....currently its hard to make a exact center but I think hes still along the coast near 79.8W.

Edited by scottsvb (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:43 AM)


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hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: scottsvb]
      #72364 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:48 AM

question is the movement WNW or NW? like the NHC is still saying to me it looks more like a WNW movement but i'm just an amateur

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force2005
Verified CFHC User
BANNED


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: hofloka]
      #72366 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:53 AM

The upper atmosphere may not play a huge role in this, as the motion is still by radar and satalite still shows the movement wnw. The interaction has not occured yet, and with every hour it doesn't, the possibility is there it will enter the gulf, and then we have a new ballgame to deal with.

Edited by John C (Tue Aug 29 2006 11:01 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: hofloka]
      #72367 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:55 AM

Personally I think they are off on where the center is..and since no recon is in there yet..they will be off...but its slightly....the center is still along the cuban coast near 23.1N and about 80W..... btw I seen the new 12Z run of the NOGAPS....it takes it immediately NNW this afternoon thru florida bay to Marco then Ftmyers before a turn up the state and exiting between Daytona and Jacks.........this is a slight adjustment w from the previous run at 6z.....I think landall will be there but my thinking is also...maybe slightly N now..but I wont change my forecast.. again....it takes it this afternoon almost NNW.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: scottsvb]
      #72368 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:56 AM

isn't it making the turn now...it was going wnw over or near cuba and now going generally NW and not as far west as you say 79.8 vs. 79.5 per 11am. I see NHC track verifying quite well.

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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Blob off panhandle [Re: pryord1]
      #72369 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:58 AM

The other answer is not exactly correct...the blob off the panhandle is a Thunderstorm area being enhanced by difluence that is part of Ernesto's large scale outflow.

Not directly connected to the storm.

MM


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Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Blob off panhandle [Re: MapMaster]
      #72371 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:00 AM

11 am discussion is up indicating a westward shift in the forecast path...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/291454.shtml?

--------------------
Florida Native


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: scottsvb]
      #72372 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:01 AM

Sorry for the oneliner, but recon has been n there for quite a while already this morning.

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chuck struck lightning survivor
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: force2005]
      #72373 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM

I really wish the Watch along the west coast of FL would be further north at this time so the unsuspected residents of the TB area can make preps now and not 11pm tonight. To me it looks to be a Cat 1 landfall Between RSW and TPA.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: scottsvb]
      #72374 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM

There you go....from the 11AM adv discussion.....the center is hard to see from the radar based images and they went with the satillite est positions which is NE yes NE of where the last recon obs suggested the center was......well to me....Ill take the recon fixes....its more near 23.1 and 80W.

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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Katrina [Re: force2005]
      #72375 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM

Disagree most strongly, this storm does NOT have the makings of Katrina at this time. Only if it goes into the central Gulf would there be the remotest possibility of it becoming anything like Katrina.

<< snip by Moderator >>

Let's not tell folks how they should act please

Dear anonymous moderator...I did not tell anyone how to act, I stated a fact...people ARE overreacting to this event, based on empirical evidence and official forecast. I don't mind the moderating, but don't like censoring. And I would have pm'd you if I knew who you were.

Edited by MapMaster (Tue Aug 29 2006 11:55 AM)


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Blob off panhandle [Re: Ginger]
      #72377 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:05 AM

From 2am to 8am this morning, Ernest moved .6degN and 1.0degW(per the NHC coordinates). In the last 3 hours the storm has moved .5degN and .2degW. Though the high northern component is probably due to the satellite-fixes being more to the NE.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Katrina [Re: MapMaster]
      #72378 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:05 AM

You are absolutly right i don't think that Ernesto will move all the way to the GOM, might go along the west coast of Florida, but don't think has the making of Katrina at all.
At least i hope so


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: scottsvb]
      #72379 - Tue Aug 29 2006 11:06 AM

THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

This says more than anything. Models shifting slightly west. Track forecast is east of guidance which leaves them open for error. We will have to wait until the 5:00 to get a better idea now. Geez.


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