Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

gordon and helene have both gotten a bit stronger this afternoon. their inner cores have become better defined and such. helene is probably scraping the cat 2/3 intensity boundary... gordon maybe is back to 75kt. thing is, gordon has less than 48 hours left as a tropical entity and should 'let go' of helene by letting the heights build back to the northeast. has actually been turning helene briefly wsw before the next shortwave comes by. exactly how that shortwave affects helene is a big ticket item. on the 12Z run has gone back to a recurvature path, only much further west (stalls the system near bermuda by late in the week, before sweeping it up). the caveat would be that a hybrid type system is spinning a couple hundred miles east of hatteras and waiting for the trough advancing across the country to draw it up... and it is looking ever-so-slightly more tropical over warm waters. it's in the middle of a deep layer trough, so it'll take some work to cross over. most of the models don't see it very well... if it develops into isaac or something it would throw a wrench into the modeling and probably mean somewhat more resurgent ridging for helene this coming week.
whether it's that feature or not, we'll probably see isaac soon either way. there's been a good bit of support for the next wave to emerge and develop.
still no modeling grabbing on to anything near central america, but pressures there are suspiciously low through the coming period, as typically happens this time of year when canadian highs descend and synoptically force rising motions and pressure falls. the pacific looks to keep active... i'm thinking that maybe something down in the western caribbean or maybe even more likely the bay of campeche will get hung up near one of these frontal tails. that's bound to happen once or twice every other year regardless. tis the season.
the storm crossing the country is energetic for this time of year... more akin to what we usually see in mid-late fall (usually colorado lows that head up into the lakes; i've seen these nicknamed 'november witches' in a paper before). it's sort of a tell-tale sign of fall just a tad early. with warm it wouldn't be a surprise for fall to come on rather quickly this year. this part of the country el nino causes mild to cool, rainy conditions relative to average. not terrible after a hot summer, but as it continues into winter it gets really, really old by, say, february.
HF 2008z17september

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