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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Green Light [Re: NewWatcher]
      #81917 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:16 PM

She is starting to get much better organized. LLC is underneath some of the coldest cloud tops. Her western convection area is expanding, and she is moving, albeit slow, and I do believe I'm seeing more of a NW-erly component in Fay's direction. She may be slowing down so much cause she's fighting the pull of the ULL to her west vs. the weakness in the ridge above her.



Hurricane Charley 2004 ( Port Charlotte- NE Eyewall)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Plot reliability [Re: Jumaduke]
      #81918 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 PM

I'm pretty sure the GFDL uses data from the GFS

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Plot reliability [Re: Jumaduke]
      #81919 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:22 PM

W\hen Katrina was poised to track across south florida the GFDL model was the only one that accurately predicted the south of west track the eventually ensued. its a pretty good model. also the GFDL model is run using info from the GFS model, which isnt bad either. the hwrf is a newer model with much less track record to go by. the BAMM bams and BAMD are all used more for systems that are more shallow even tho one means shallow, one medium and one deep, mostly i dont look at them at all. the ECMWF, which you probably wont see much is a reliable model as well.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
Re: Green Light [Re: NewWatcher]
      #81920 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:23 PM

I just did some quick research, and if you go back and look at the last recon data, the center fix was NE of where it was supposed to be according to the forecast track. It looks like there may have been a center reformation under the deeper convective area. This would explain the “stationary look”. This is certainly not uncommon for developing systems.

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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Green Light [Re: h2ocean]
      #81921 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:34 PM

I realize that you can't forecast by satellite image but I'm beginning to think < snip by moderator>

edit by moderator Redington Beach Guy -- we would love to know everyone's personal opinions but the main thread isn't the place for them unless you have subjective reasoning for the comment.

Folks, use the forecast lounge forum for these types of comments.

Thank you.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 17 2008 09:51 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Green Light [Re: h2ocean]
      #81922 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:35 PM

That is one (edit by moderator - please refrain from using even moderately foul language) <heck> of a convective tower near where the COC is approximately. Fay is really trying its best to make up for lost ground after trying to reorganize herself all day.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 17 2008 09:52 PM)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: Green Light [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #81923 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:44 PM

I just got massively headfaked and nearly posted something that would have been rather bogus as an observation.... on the Key West long range radar, it appears there's a clean rotation over the island SSW of Havana. With the extreme range and terrain, that looked like it might be the COC, and rather, well, puny.

Its not, as the IR loop off GOES-E or the floater makes clear. In fact, the last frame off that floater looks like the COC is stacking itself quite nicely and may have relocated NW a bit from where it was a few frames prior. That nasty little "fuel tank cap" on top of the last frame (the dark dot) looks rather ominous too; it will be interesting to see how that holds in the next few frames into the overnight hours.

It DOES appear to have a more northward component in the last few frames, but that may be a jog - these things do that and over longer periods of time the movement tends to average back out.

The good news is that by tomorrow morning we should have a significant tightening of the model guidance since we'll have more path under us. The bad news is that another 12 hours will be gone on time before some gets to have fun.

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
Re: Green Light [Re: Genesis]
      #81924 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:56 PM

It actually appears to have reformed to the NE. Also check out the Cuba radar...it appears to be slowly drifting to the north.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Green Light [Re: Genesis]
      #81925 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:58 PM

00Z runs... 2D

I would expect a slight shift back to the right tonight by the NHC forecast...... back towards tampa. Interesting to note.. the morning runs go west it seems and then the night runs go east. looks like the shallow core (BAMS) are on the west side of guidence and the GFDL/HWRF are on the east side. To me, thats a headach for the HRD guys!

I think based on doppler radar data i seen from Cuba.. the turn to the north is starting and a slow down has occurred... my question now, can fay stack itself before its crosses Cuba in the morning/2morrow? seen some impressive "HOT Towers" tonight, but then again i see some shear on the west side of the system, affecting the outflow and system. The big player i think now is the shortwave piece of energy coming out of the plains... seems to me in the water vapor, its a little father east than i think the GFS had it by now?

Can't wait to read the essay, i mean discussion tonight for the 11pm pkg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Green Light [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81926 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:07 PM

To me, the 00Z run indicates a complete split... so the NHC will likely stick to their guns on the eastward models, and ignore the western ones, like they did at 5pm.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Green Light [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81928 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:20 PM

I think the shortwave is moving faster than what was expected. I think Fay is feeling it right now and thus the stall...but it looks like it will pass by. There is also shear coming from the SW which is impeding outflow on the western side

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: Green Light [Re: Hugh]
      #81929 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:21 PM

It's hard to say. The storm reminds me a lot at this point of Irene in 99.

I don't think the NHC will go with a center reforming but I could be wrong.

If you watch the wv loop you will see rapid changes in the environment around the storm and to the immediate NW of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Rarely can I remember the NHC updating track at 8. I know it's happened but it's rare.

Also the ridge behind it may be breaking down as the ULL seems to be filling in.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Green Light [Re: LoisCane]
      #81930 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:29 PM

Quote:


Rarely can I remember the NHC updating track at 8. I know it's happened but it's rare.
Also the ridge behind it may be breaking down as the ULL seems to be filling in.





Yes, but will it stay that way?
I've never seen the NHC update the track in an intermediate advisory.... the intensity they update periodically but never the track.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Guessing on continuity [Re: Hugh]
      #81933 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:42 PM

I return to the internet after being in the wilderness for three months in Yellowstone and find myself racing a tropical system back home.

Only having an hour or so to digest, I will go for continuity of forecast in the next advisory. The situation seems too muddled to make any real changes. Maybe a slight change of track to the left and an extension of warning and/or watches. The morning advisory may have more radical shifts.

--------------------
Jim


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: Green Light [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81936 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:52 PM

As you look at the WV imagery there is alot going on in the atmosphere around Fay. ULL to the east in the Atlantic, ULL to its immediate west (in fact some thunderstorm activity firing in response to Fays interaction with this ULL), trough digging in the Eastern CONUS (not to mention her lengthy interaction with land mass).

Just appears it is a hostile enviroment for a tropical cyclone. Will be interesting to see which of these has the biggest effect on her, especially with regards to intensity.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: Green Light [Re: metwannabe]
      #81937 - Sun Aug 17 2008 10:59 PM

Take a good look at the ULL behind her, it is weakening and she's running out of options. she is going to have to do something. She doesn't look to be moving forward speed 10mph but imagine that's a forecasted movement.

Also her structure is funky for lack of a better met term. She developed a band like feature on the west but she really seems to be spinning east of the cords or right on them..

The low is wrapping up over colorado moving towards Texas and my gut feeling is she is beginning to separate from the ULL that brought her here.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

I don't care how many models say it I do not see how she gets to NW Florida, the timing is off that trough is dipping and she looks to be finally making the Cuba landfall

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Green Light [Re: LoisCane]
      #81938 - Sun Aug 17 2008 11:10 PM

As I look at the forecast points on those loops...it appears that the convection is to the east of the LLC. However, looking at the forecast track, it looks to me like it's going to hit Cuba a little further west. More land mass before re-emerging? It's definitely not moving W/NW anymore...the question is..where will it interact with land what will she look like after doing so.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr... 27.81N 82.74W
Re: Green Light [Re: Colleen A.]
      #81940 - Sun Aug 17 2008 11:20 PM

After seeing the 11PM advisory, and if everything goes to the forecast, what are the chances that Fay will make it up to a category 1 hurricane between exiting Cuba and making landfall somewhere in Florida?
Have there been any storms in the past that have been able to intensify significantly between Cuba and the Florida west coast?


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: Green Light [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #81941 - Sun Aug 17 2008 11:30 PM

More than I can mention here. Intensifying over the Straits is a given as the water is warm however much depends on upper level winds and the structure of the storm being in tact.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

I'm not sure what to believe here except there has been a major blow up around the area that is I believe to the right of the center.


The center disapeered under the big blow up so it's either there or jumping around because of... interaction with land.
That is possible. One possible excuse.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Chances?? [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #81942 - Sun Aug 17 2008 11:33 PM

Chances are 50-50 for a Category 1 Hurricane. And probably less than 20% for a Category 2, depending on the actual track and speed.

I'll have to check the SHIPS model.

Previous Rapid intensifier was Hurricane Charley in 2004. Made Cat 4 just prior to landfall in the Port Charlotte, FL area.
Charley was also forecast to go further north before making landfall, but a front moved through the GOM and Charley made a hard right turn into the Port Charlotte area with very little warning.

Listen to officical statements, Watches and Warnings. But trust your eyes too!


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