Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
It will be interesting to see what happens over the NW Gulf and areas inland this weekend. Given proximity to land, any sort of major tropical development seems unlikely, but a short fuse system could develop if any given thunderstorm complex goes upscale. Some sort of hybrid or warm core low pressure could even spin up over land close to the coast, given the large amount of convection that is forecast to occur in a very tropical airmass. In either case, the main impact should be heavy rain. If a well organized surface low develops (tropical or otherwise), there will be a threat of excessive flooding rain in some areas and an elevated risk of tornadoes on the eastern flank of the system.
We may already have a hint at something. It's also possible I'm just reading too much into this satellite, time will tell. Just SSE of Brownsville, TX, approx. 26 N, 97.5 W, there is a burst of convection accompanied by some sort of hint of circulation. I can't tell if it is Upper or Lower level yet, or if it will end up being anything more than just convection.
Water Vapor Sat
Very evident on WV loop.
Also another good look is the Brownsville Radar.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF DEL RIO WHILE AT THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE STARTING TO WRAP UP NEAR LRD. SFC WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE AT THE SFC ALONG THE COAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW
Edited by hogrunr (Thu Sep 10 2009 03:58 PM)
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
11/03Z - Good evening! All eyes are on the TX/Gulf of Mexico coast for what apears to be a couple of lows to develop; one over land, the second over water in a couple of days. All this season winds aloft have not been favorable at sustaining tropical systems and this system is no exception as whatever low does form is likely to drag a cold front and later in the forecast period become a frontal wave over the Mid-TN valley.
Interesting weather features beyond 48 hours to keep an eye on are - the upper ridge is forecasted to be in place over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico with a strong upper low over Eastern Canada extending southward to the Mid Atlantic and Tennessee Valley.
And...SSTs along the future course of Fred's low level center are 27C (81F) and 29C (84F), and an upper ridge is expected to build along this track in the days ahead so while it's demise is soon upon it; who knows!
Fred may or may not be dead!
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"