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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2309
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Fred Now A Hurricane Moving to the West Northwest
      #86882 - Fri Sep 04 2009 09:02 PM

Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 11PM
Fred has reached minimal hurricane status. Movement is to the west northwest with a gradual turn more to the north likely in a few days. A small eye is now evident.

Hurricane Fred

The remains of what was Invest 95L showing signs of activity near 21N 40W at 09/03Z.
ED

Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 1045AM
Just a short update for the Mid-Atlantic wave now located at 19.3N 57.5W at 08/14Z. Wave with a well-defined LLCC is moving west northwest at 15 knots - wind about 25 knots and pressure around 1010MB. Westerly windshear is expected to decline in a day or so.

Fred is now a strong Tropical Storm - currently moving west but expected to turn more to the northwest.
ED

Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 1215AM
The by-line at the top really says it all. Monday Invest 96L became TD#7 which intensified to minimal Tropical Storm Fred by evening in the far eastern Atlantic. Fred should become a strong tropical storm before encountering southwesterly windshear in a few days. Slow movement to the west northwest, then northwest to north northwest.

A non-tropical low just off the North Carolina shore should move slowly to the north northeast but chances for tropical transition are low - windshear again.

A small tropical wave with a weak low-level circulation is located near 18.5N 55W at 08/04Z. Movement is to the west in an area of westerly windshear.
ED

Update, Sunday Sept 6, 5PM
95l is no longer being tracked, but another wave off Africa has been designated 96L. Nothing conclusive yet from it, but it has a 30-50% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. If anything develops, again most likely out to sea, and if it stays weaker, it will likely go further west. The wave right now is looking fairly impressive, it it holds together like it has overnight it could form fairly quick.

Another area southeast of South Carolina is being watched for possible development because of its proximity to land, but it has less than a 30% chance of development.


Update, Saturday Sept 5, 1PM
Invest 95L has taken a more northwesterly track with no significant change in convection while the tropical wave to its west southwest is moving west northwest - and both are experiencing southwesterly windshear. Potential for further development will be impeded by this windshear.

An area of cyclonic turning in the southeast Gulf of Mexico west southwest of Naples can be found near 25.5N 83.3W at 05/17Z. A fair amount of disorganized convection extends to the east over the Keys and the southern Florida peninsula. Windshear is quite light in this area and the SST is about 30C. No movement is evident at this time.

Portions of Puerto Rico have been and will continue to receive heavy rainfall from the convective shield that was associated with the former tropical cyclone Erika.

We'll keep an eye on all of these areas for any additional development or demise.
ED

Original Post
The remnant low of what was once Erika is itself no longer even a remnant. Attention now turns to the far eastern Atlantic where Invest 95L is slowly churning to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with a tropical circulation near 13.5N 30W at 05/00Z. The Invest area is currently moving to the west at 16 knots and some of the initial model runs take the system on a west northwest to northwest track over the next few days. Four other tropical waves are noted over the north central African continent.

No other tropical activity of significance is currently noted in the shear-plagued basin - certainly unusual as the climatological peak of the season approaches.

ADDED:
Another wave near 14N 39W at 05/03Z has also started to fire up a small area of convection.
ED

Hurricane Fred Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hurricane Fred


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hurricane Fred (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hurricane Fred (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Hurricane Fred

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hurricane Fred
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hurricane Fred -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 08 2009 11:37 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 817
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86883 - Sat Sep 05 2009 01:45 PM

It looks like the models are not really going after 95L very aggressively while some are locking on to the next wave coming off Africa. Still, several are showing something developing off the East coast of the US. Whether that is tropical or mid-latitude is the question.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 832
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: MichaelA]
      #86884 - Sat Sep 05 2009 02:27 PM

The area SW of Naples is at the western end of the decaying surface trough over the peninsula. These things can spawn development. Movement is generally slowly to the north.

--------------------
doug


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86885 - Sat Sep 05 2009 02:45 PM

95L looks pretty darn good on satellite but winds aloft aren't far away and appearances are deceiving. Talk about hostile where what remains of Erika; wow! Westerly winds aloft 40 knots.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: doug]
      #86886 - Sat Sep 05 2009 02:55 PM

Reply to Doug's post: Analysis over your area reveal a sharp shortwave trough in the upper levels and may cutoff. Upper ridge to it's south. I think what you're looking at is the result of the old surface front washing out now as a surface trough and upper level difluence supporting thunderstorms in your area. You do make a good point in that old fronts are spawning grounds for tropical lows, and while shear aloft is quite low over the eastern GOM it can't be ruled out. If convection persists it will require being watched. Forecast shear analysis has that are becoming hostile in 72 hours unless something does form and it gets itself in the Atlantic; the GOM will once again become too hostile to sustain tropical activity except shallow activity.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: MichaelA]
      #86890 - Sat Sep 05 2009 07:48 PM Attachment (266 downloads)

Reply to Michael A - I looked at that feature off the SC coast this evening. I looked at the latest surface analysis and found a buoy with winds from the west-southwest and everything else from the east-northeast above it suggesting there is either a trough or a small closed low at the surface. Upper air at 850mb and 700mb picks it up as an inverted feature embedded in the subtropical ridge near the coast but no higher. Wind Shear analysis indicates environment too hostile with southwest winds 20 to 30 knots above feature.

When I refer to the Wind Shear Analysis please refer to the attachment above. Take care!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by berrywr (Sat Sep 05 2009 07:59 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: berrywr]
      #86894 - Sun Sep 06 2009 03:30 PM

We have Invest 96L now off the African coast . Already code orange in the 2 from the NHC. Early model runs look fishy but time will tell.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 817
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 95L Way Out There - Otherwise It Has Turned Quiet [Re: HCW]
      #86895 - Sun Sep 06 2009 05:34 PM

96L looks pretty darned impressive at the moment. We'll see how it does over the next 24 hours as it moves farther from the coast. Yes, the models all indicate that it will be a fish spinner. Interesting that a couple of them develop something just off Florida in 5 - 6 days, but that may be in response to another mid-lat trough.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
96L - 06/0430Z - Tropical Depression or Storm? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86896 - Mon Sep 07 2009 12:27 AM

I looked at satellite imagery just a moment ago (06/0430Z) and if 96L isn't a tropical depression, it's the best looking system I've seen that isn't classified. It has banding; possibly outflow; winds are light upstairs and the convective tops are extremely cold. It is way, way out there, literally just off the coast of Africa.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
(Seven) [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86900 - Mon Sep 07 2009 03:50 PM

Invest 96L is TD7, with an estimated min. central pressure of 1005mb and estimated max. sustained winds of 30 knots. We should see some decent model runs out by Tuesday. This is a pretty classic CV-borne, peak-of-season system. Wild card up against all those model runs, as has often been the case this year, is the El Nino.



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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: 96L - 06/0430Z - Tropical Depression or Storm? [Re: berrywr]
      #86901 - Mon Sep 07 2009 03:51 PM

NRL and FNMOC now have 96L as 07L - expect advisories to be issued on Tropical Depression Seven beginning at 2100UTC / 5pm EST.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: 96L - 06/0430Z - Tropical Depression or Storm? [Re: Rich B]
      #86902 - Mon Sep 07 2009 11:25 PM

As of 11pm, it is Tropical Storm Fred.

Way out to sea - no threat to land (except maybe the Cape Verde Islands) - and not expected (at this point) to strengthen significantly.


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: 96L - 06/0430Z - Tropical Depression or Storm? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86903 - Tue Sep 08 2009 12:08 AM

Yup a fish and nothing else.I do not see anything that would bring this to the west.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 817
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Watching TS Fred, a Low Off North Carolina, and a Small Wave in the Mid-Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86905 - Tue Sep 08 2009 04:16 PM

Quote:

Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 1045AM
Just a short update for the Mid-Atlantic wave now located at 19.3N 57.5W at 08/14Z. Wave with a well-defined LLCC is moving west northwest at 15 knots - wind about 25 knots and pressure around 1010MB. Westerly windshear is expected to decline in a day or so.


Still a lot of shear is evident on that system, but it has been persistent for several days. Non of the models are picking up on it though. A wait and see scenario?

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 138
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Watching TS Fred, a Low Off North Carolina, and a Small Wave in the Mid-Atlantic [Re: MichaelA]
      #86906 - Tue Sep 08 2009 05:03 PM

Fred is almost a hurricane. Also, an area that has not been mentioned yet, what appears to be an exposed LLC is at 19N 94W in the Bay of Campeche, drifting to the WNW at about 4-8 mph. This area had convection over it previously, but appears to be affected by strong shear coming from the south.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Watching TS Fred, a Low Off North Carolina, and a Small Wave in the Mid-Atlantic [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86907 - Tue Sep 08 2009 06:33 PM

Quote:

Fred is almost a hurricane. Also, an area that has not been mentioned yet, what appears to be an exposed LLC is at 19N 94W in the Bay of Campeche, drifting to the WNW at about 4-8 mph. This area had convection over it previously, but appears to be affected by strong shear coming from the south.




Excellent observation with the small system in the Bay of Campeche! Thanks JoshuaK.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by berrywr (Tue Sep 08 2009 06:34 PM)


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 138
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Watching TS Fred, a Low Off North Carolina, and a Small Wave in the Mid-Atlantic [Re: berrywr]
      #86908 - Wed Sep 09 2009 11:38 AM

Fred has been rapidly intesifying (spelling?) this morning, and as of 11AM, has winds of 120 mph, with a very impressive satellite presentation on visible and so forth. The NHC has already noted that this system is the strongest system on record this far to the SE of the Atlantic basin.

EDIT: Also the LLC I mentioned yesterday appears to have weakened, and now seems to be near 20.5N and 95.5W, embedded within a frontal presentation like cluster of storms in the Bay of Campeche.

Edited by JoshuaK (Wed Sep 09 2009 11:45 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Western GOM and other areas [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86912 - Thu Sep 10 2009 07:55 AM

Northern and NW GOM NWS Offices are watching the Western GOM for a forecast warm core system to spin up this weekend.
Outcome is up for grabs....

Excerpts follow:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.MARINE...
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DEEPNESS OF A
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TO THE
MID SOUTH. WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTENED EVEN WITH GFS...NAM HAS A
DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH SHOW A
WARM CORE AT 5H. BACK TO THE GRADIENT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING UP TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN RELAXING
SOMEWHAT AS THE FEATURE OVER THE GULF MOVES NORTH OVER WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...SURF LOW AND UPPER LOW BECOME MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHIFT EAST TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ONTO THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=LIX&date=2009-09-10%2008:56:48

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

...FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED BEGINNING TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS ALL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THEY DO APPEAR TO BE
GETTING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. GFS
AND ECMWF FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY...TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS A NON-TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A TROPICAL STORM FORMING RAPIDLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
PATH AND TIMING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=LCH&date=2009-09-10%2009:55:54

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009
...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS HOWEVER IN HANDLING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEAR TX COAST OR NW GULF NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO EVEN LARGER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY
MODELS. UK/CANADIAN AND GFS AND NOW EVEN THE 06Z NAM RUN HINTING
AT SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=HGX&date=2009-09-10%2011:27:28


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Western GOM and other areas [Re: danielw]
      #86914 - Thu Sep 10 2009 02:08 PM

Quote:

Northern and NW GOM NWS Offices are watching the Western GOM for a forecast warm core system to spin up this weekend.
Outcome is up for grabs....

Excerpts follow:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009
...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS HOWEVER IN HANDLING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEAR TX COAST OR NW GULF NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO EVEN LARGER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY
MODELS. UK/CANADIAN AND GFS AND NOW EVEN THE 06Z NAM RUN HINTING
AT SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=HGX&date=2009-09-10%2011:27:28




Very interesting! We'll have to keep an eye out, if anything happens, I have a feeling it will be more of a major rain event, hopefully not along the lines of Allison. Our rain chances suddenly went through the roof here in Houston over the last couple of days and for the foreseeable future. I'm not complaining, we need it!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Western GOM and other areas [Re: hogrunr]
      #86915 - Thu Sep 10 2009 02:51 PM

It will be interesting to see what happens over the NW Gulf and areas inland this weekend. Given proximity to land, any sort of major tropical development seems unlikely, but a short fuse system could develop if any given thunderstorm complex goes upscale. Some sort of hybrid or warm core low pressure could even spin up over land close to the coast, given the large amount of convection that is forecast to occur in a very tropical airmass. In either case, the main impact should be heavy rain. If a well organized surface low develops (tropical or otherwise), there will be a threat of excessive flooding rain in some areas and an elevated risk of tornadoes on the eastern flank of the system.

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