danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Checking the NWS office's Area Forecast Discussions, from Lake Charles,LA to Jacksonville,FL.
Several mention the model forecasting a "low" to develop in the GOM-Gulf of Mexico.
All of the Northern and Eastern Gulf Coast NWS AFDs are tossing the solution out at this time.
However. The NWS Offices from Mobile to Tampa, and across FL to Melbourne are mentioning a very rainy forecast. With at least two of the offices mentioning the possibility of having to issue urban/ small stream flood advisories due to heavy amounts of rain falling in a short period of time, and falling on saturated ground.
The cloud patterns in the GOM are related to interaction between a tropical wave and low pressure trough.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF SALISBURY MARYLAND IS MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This may just be a rain event, but from a distance, it looks like any other tropical system crossing the Yucatan into the GOM It even has the banding "look".
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Checking the Brownsville, TX NWS site.
Short Term Forecast for the Coastal Waters.
700 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
So FL is not alone in this.
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teal61@work
Unregistered
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JB has some interest in the BOC this morning, particularly the area around 18.0/92.0 where he thinks that the beginnings of a LLCc might be. Some far not enough daylight pictures to really tell yet.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i looked at JB's stuff earlier... he showed some nice analogs to western gulf storms and how the ridging/surface weather there could combine to generate something. a couple of the models are tracking a vortmax/disturbance to the tx/mex border through thursday, so any pressure falls in the area will get the hype machine going.
just to pique other interests, i've got a hunch the next two may mention the wave at 45w. the 8am twd did, noting the swirl and modest increase in convection. i've been looking at it on vis closeup on the ghcc loop, and checking the upper charts ahead of it... if it can get free of the , the ridging should move in tandem with it into the caribbean as a twin-vortex feature swivels to a positively-tilted alignment. globals still ike that newly-emerged wave as well out near the cv islands.
really there is ridging from the BOC up to east of hatteras.. any low level turning in the region can become suspect. watch for another low to run hatteras by mid week as well. any one of these little things can cause a stir.
HF 1609z27june
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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That is interesting , but if something does go where JB points it will be short lived as that section of the moisture is moving NW'd. The moisture coming up further east is moving northward, and there is no definite sign of circulation ...that cluster at 18/92 does have a signature to it though.
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doug
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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There is some model interest in the mid Atlantic feature.
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doug
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Looking at 10.5 N 47 W....there is a low there with convection. Maybe even a hint at some banding trying to develop.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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BOC vortex is emerging in the south BOC: models jumping on it and also the convection in the east central Gulf.
Plus, as others have said, to promising looking waves/disturbances, one east of the islands. one just coming off Africa.
MM
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The most recent Sat. Pics. suggest the tropical wave axis is along 88W and continues to progress generally NW'd.
The BOC is under a shear environme along of strong SW flow along the border of the trough to its west and the approaching tropical wave from the east. the shear will prevent rapid development in the BOC, in my opinion.
The E. GOM is the diffluence of the wave and the trough and general movement of the moisture on the east side of the wave axis is NW'd and then around the ridge in the Atlantic... NE of Florida There are no signs of any development there...pretty consistent with the 11:30 TWD.
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doug
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hurricanejk
Unregistered
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The models show what ever this is moving westward or west-northwestward. Kind of like the BOC low a few weeks ago. I don't expect development. In fact it would never have the time to get anywhere near as developed as the unnamed cyclone yesterday. What we need to watch is if any energy splits to the north. The Gulf seems to be pretty unfavable but worth watching. Hopefully on best track later this year we will know.
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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This is what Mt. Holly, NJ Discussion had to say about the low over Delaware today:
THIS COASTAL HYBRID LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN (WEAKEN). THIS THING EVEN
HAS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.
MM
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Buffalo referrred to it as a 'tropical system' with subsidence on the periphery....Albany says this:
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FROM ANY STORMS.
WILL UP POPS TONIGHT WITH SEMI-TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH MID ATLANTIC.
RADAR WILL BE IN CONVECTIVE Z-R THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SHIFT TO
TROPICAL THIS EVENING.
MM
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Yeah HF, I've been watching the area in the central atlantic you mentioned. Last visibles still showing some slight rotation in the low level clouds with some stronger convection as well. This is the time of year we can start looking at these features for possible development, and the high SSTs help a bunch. Circulation is into the BOC as well and this may be interesting. Shear doesn't appear to be too bad. THe west coast of the GOM needs to watch this one. Eyes should be looking east the next couple of weeks. Cheers!
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Development or not...It looks like Florida is going to rack up even more rain over the next threee to four days. This afternoon is looking like quite a drencher down on the penninsula. Based on thunderstorms extending through the Fla. Straits. I would have to say this is another tropical wave entering the Gulf instread of just afternoon t-storms. While the BOC is of interest. I still believe the best chances for a weak system to develop in this pattern will be in the central or east central gulf in 48-72 hours. Most likely, north of the Yucatan in the central gulf.
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Tropical development.. remains to be seen but I doubt it at this time. As far as rain + Florida, Oh yes. The panhandle will get in on some of this also in the next day or so.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Rain in the Panhandle is an accurate statement as well. Not totally sure about you in PC, but it has been very dry in Tallahassee, especially compared to the peninsula. The peninsula will definately be getting wetter though. The last NWS TLH Discussion was mentioning the possibility of heavy rainfall events here.
I'm more of a synoptic weather watcher, monitoring overall interactions. I really lean less attention to the models, but I will say that the Canadian is remaining consistent with developing a weak low that comes into the PC-Destin-Fort Walton area. Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for hurricane action here, but I have been watching the pattern and a weak system is probably not out of the question.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Glad to see most of you guys and girls are still around this year, think we will need to wait till Mid-July for our frist Cat 1 or 2.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The following post was recovered . It was linked to off-topic material. The off-topic posts were moved to the Other Weather Events Forum. Please stay on topic.
Thanks,
ED
A well defined area of low pressure is in the BOC. Although bouys dont show alot of wind, heavy thunderstorms are widespread throughout the area with pressures near 1008mb. It could become a depression or even TS later on Tuesday but not sure if will send a plane to investigate since its proximaty to the Mexican coast and nearing the coast on Tuesday. This might be 1 of the possible TS that make landfall too quick to be classified.
scottsvb
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LizL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
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UPDATED: A portion of Central Florida is placed in a forecast cone of possible strike locations for one of two storms gaining strength today, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.
this was posted on www.local6.com a Orlando tv stations website. Just sharing what i saw.
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