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Tropical Depresison #3 forms near the Bahamas, likely to remain offshore of Florida, weak, with no watches or warnings issued.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Barry) , Major: 285 (Michael) Florida - Any: 285 (Michael) Major: 285 (Michael)
25.6N 78.6W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1013mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 Storm Forum

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18553 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:27 AM

Ill add the place and time. It will make news in the bigbend area going ashore as a CAT 1 around the Swanee River, I believe the name of the area is between Cross City and Perry Florida but for the life of me I can't recall the name of the town on 98 that we always go through and Sing the Swanee River song. She will creep in about 4am on Saturday morning officially. Her winds will be clocked at 60 gusting to 75.

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 961
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18563 - Tue Aug 10 2004 10:40 AM

Steihhatchee-Cedar Key good guesses...thursday...Cat I

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doug


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18605 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:17 PM

GuppieGrouper - that's near a city called Old Town. I think it's a little past Cross City, actually, as the only thing between there and Perry is the Steinhatchee area...but that's off the road a bit.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Final results [Re: HanKFranK]
      #20261 - Sun Aug 15 2004 03:36 AM

Well, officially, Bonnie made landfall at St. Marks, FL at about 18Z Thursday with winds of 35kt. I'm using the strictest definition of landfall and the NHC track, as the storm never really made landfall at Apalachicola or St. George Island (also when winds were 45kt/50mph).

Thus, while none of us did very well, the later posts calling for a more eastward landfall were fairly well, and my landflal time of about 18Z on Thursday was spot-on. Too bad my intensity and location were well off! As you all may recall from my posts in the various Bonnie news threads over the past few days, I ended up heading to St. George Island after sticking to my guns with Laguna Beach through part of the day on Wednesday...and still ended up missing the center.

Thankfully, Bonnie was not a storm to be reckoned with - but did show us all how fickle small storms like that can be, despite the best efforts forecasting. Drop over to the Earl thread if you all get a chance and throw in a forecast/prediction there...

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