Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic is mostly quiet
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 258 (Michael) , Major: 258 (Michael) Florida - Any: 258 (Michael) Major: 258 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE*
      #17675 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:38 AM

I made a post earlier on the main board about possibilities as I saw them with our current T.D. My money (monopoly money at least) is on there being a Bonnie in the Caribbean shortly, one that doesn't take the quick-out option of the official forecast. Much of the board is on board with this becoming Bonnie, but there are voices of dissent among the throngs of hurricane mongerers here, notably my dear compatriot in moderation Ed, who favors a less vigorous and even more unpredictable system, and the heretic Rabbit who is obviously descended from the red-eyed beast guarding the cave in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, and not the animated carrot-chomping varmint he purports to be. Nee!
Anyhow, the challenge:
Watch the development of the tropical system tomorrow. At any time prior to 02z on August 5th (that's 10 PM Eastern Daylight for all of you civilians out there), make a forecast of position (1/10 degree lat/lon) and intensity (wind kt/pres mb) for 70 and 94 hours out from the deadline (that would be 00Z on August 8th [8PM Saturday] and 00Z on August 10th [8PM Monday]). Then go the extra mile with an explanation of why you see the system doing what you predict, if you so desire, as long or short as you wish. If of course T.D. 2 opens up prior to tomorrow evening then the challenge is off.
So anyhow, get your thoughts on our system ready to slap down on the thread tomorrow evening.
HF 0438z04august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DustDuchess
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17690 - Wed Aug 04 2004 07:49 AM

T.D.#2 is a wash. It will play around with the back wash of the current hurricane.The official demise will occur at 20.2N and 65.8W give or take a 10th of a degree as it gets on the bandwagon going around the Bermuda High. It will be like following in the wake of a Semi truck, in a Volkswagon mimi bus with no stabilzers on the axel.

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: DustDuchess]
      #17704 - Wed Aug 04 2004 10:55 AM

Okay I'll give this a shot.
TD2 or Bonnie. Will not make the Nward curve prior to passing 16.2N and 75.4W. Pressure 1000mb, and that should give us a wind of 40 gusting to 55kts. I could cheat and look on the progs that I have but NHC doesn't seem to be doing very good with this one. Model Busting Bonnie will make history right behind Alex. Right now, 15Z, they'd be better off with a Caribbean map and darts!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: DustDuchess]
      #17707 - Wed Aug 04 2004 11:09 AM

Can't top them two posts for both verbosity and analogic genius, so I shan't even try.

>>> the heretic Rabbit who is obviously descended from the red-eyed beast guarding the cave in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, and not the animated carrot-chomping varmint he purports to be. Nee!

HF, LOL.

As for the challenge...I don't change my predictions as the wind blows like some on this board...that may not be good meterology, but I enjoy crow very much. I can also admit when I'm wrong...which happens to be quite often...

Therefore, I'm sticking with my prediction that Bonnie WILL develop...however, based on the current forward speed...what the hell is she doing? That trof is extremely strong, but is it strong enough and deep enough to slow my Bonnie down and pick her up? And, just how far west will she get before she gets picked up...does she get picked up, become Bonnie, and then get sheared to death on the high mountains of Hispaniola? Or does she sneak between DR and PR and get into the Bahamas? Or does she avoid the trof altogether and slide into the graveyard, survive, and make nasty in the GOM? Tough choices. Even though I have until this e'en to decide, I shall valiantly (and probably suicidally) choose now. "Choose wisely, grasshoppa".

Gotta go with the gut here, and the gut says, "feed me."

Oh, yeah, the forecast...so sorry.

Will go with the speed demon theory...misses the trof...survives the graveyard...gets into the GOM. Then heads straight for Rickonboat as a CAT V.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 04 2004 05:28 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Carl
Unregistered




Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17717 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:01 PM

8 pm Sat. - 21.3, 83.1, 55 mph, 998 mb
8 pm Mon. - 25.6, 84.2, 80 mph, 981mb


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: LI Phil]
      #17718 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:06 PM

Not thinking the TD #2 is going to organize anytime soon. Not thinking TD #2 is going to follow the 11am TPC charts and head north around the 72nd Parallel. Am thinking the system will be farther west (as per some of the tropical models) and more likely a menace to Central America as a wave than anything else. But that's the boring scenario. This is a challenge. I'm saying that in 70 hours, the center of whatever is there (or the mean wave axis) is around 19.2N and 82.3W and slowing down. Out to 94 hours, I like a position around 22.5N, 83.1W.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: LI Phil]
      #17719 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:10 PM

I'll probably be totally wrong, but I'll give it a try. I think that the current forward speed of the depression will prevent it from getting significantly stronger and it will therefore not feel the effect of the trough as early. I think that it will make the NW turn and pass through between Cuba and Haiti in around 2 days from now (8/6) as a weak tropical storm. At 00Z on 8/8 I would put Bonnie at about 28.N 74.0W as a 55kt TS.

2 days later, I would put her at 36.0N 69.0W as a 65kt hurricane.

Just a very rough and very crude guess. That's if it doesn't dissipate at the next advisory.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17727 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:42 PM

It's rabbit hunting season.

a) I think it will survive, or come back to life after being downgraded.
b) The trough will become our friend, not our enemy, by doing us a favor and slowing this train down, but will not finish the job, leaving us
c) A weak, but getting ready to get it's act together, TS

0Z Sat 18.5N 77.0W 40 kts 1000MB
0z Mon 23.0N 80.5W 35 kts 1005MB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: joepub1]
      #17730 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:46 PM

Well I have been off the mark this season be here we go.... I think she will miss the trof...and if can hold on some??
12Z Sat 17.7/ 73.1 45Kts, 1005Mb.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: James88]
      #17732 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:50 PM

Think TD#2/wave will eventually slow down south of Hispaniola, develop into a strong TD or weak TS south of Cuba, then feel the effects of the trough and be pulled towards S. Fla still as a weak or moderate TS, then race NE from there and develop into a weak hurricane. Aug 8th pos: 22.0/81.0 , Aug 10th pos: 32.5/75.0.
This is just a guess., and of course this may never happen if the TD/wave totally falls apart and it's remnants continue towards Ctrl America.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17738 - Wed Aug 04 2004 01:52 PM

I think it will follow more or less the current forecast, but further to the west, and instead of crossing over Hispanola, will cross over eastern Cuba, moving up into the Bahamas as a strong TS and then get pulled out by the trough and become a hurricane.

Aug 8 22.4/77.5 50 kts
Aug 10 33.2/71.5 70 kts

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17742 - Wed Aug 04 2004 02:13 PM

I am looking at correlation between TD2 and Hurricane David; and for no other reason, I believe that TD2 will be TSBonnie (surviving the crossing) at 78.8W 27.with 994MB with winds at 60MPH at 90 hrs from the deadline and will be Hurricane Bonnie at 81.0W 28.1N with pressure at 968 and winds at 90 MPH from 70 hours from the Deadline.

Here's hoping for good looking Bonnie but a no hitter for lives and property.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17743 - Wed Aug 04 2004 02:17 PM

Oh yeah. 25k on Saturday, 40 on Monday

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
i'll wear the dunce cap if i have to [Re: Steve]
      #17775 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:44 PM

open wave they say, but i'm entertaining other ideas.
there was a stupey-guy error in my former post, the forecast times i really meant were 00Z08/08 and 00Z08/10. so that's 70/118 past the 02z08/05 deadline.. but anyway.
my prediction:
system reclassified tomorrow as a depression/tropical storm upon recon flight. tracks wnw to nw, to a near stall position around the windward passage over the weekend. ridge builds back early next week and it rolls on.
00z08august: 18.5N/76.0W 55kt/995mb
00z10august: 23.5N/78.5W 90kt/965mb
crow or glory!
HF 0044z05august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
TD2 is not done with [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17780 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:43 PM

Saturday 8pm = 19.2, 81.2 Near the Cayman Islands, 50kts, 1000mb
Monday 8 pm = 28.1, 83.7 just West of Tampa FL, 80 kts, 970 mb

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17828 - Thu Aug 05 2004 02:24 PM

I feel that T.D two will become a weak tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola and then become staioned off the coast of North or South Carolina and regroup itself, then taking a similiar path in intensity and direction as Hurricane Alex did. This is a inference not a forecast and only assuming that T.D makes it over Hispaniola

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 960
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Anonymous]
      #17843 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:19 PM

Looking worse now than ever...NHC references"multiple" circulation centers, and shear...speculate that in 36 hours the shear will lessen and then it may go, and once it starts could be deep system quickly. The trough will not be southward enough to pull it out of Carribean before then...whatever it is (wave or cyclone) will cross into WGOM over Cuba and menace Florida late in the weekend...that's the best I can do. Doug

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17846 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:32 PM

I think that T.D 2 will become a very large tropical storm and continue heading north-west into the gulf of Mexico, where it will become a very strong hurricane and possibly hit Mexico or any cities on the shores of the Gulf Of Mexico. Winds at max in the hurricane, 110 knots.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Keith234]
      #17849 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:35 PM

I think that TD #2 is dead and will never come back



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Hardcore]
      #17850 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:46 PM

Did you look at the satilite images lately?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Accuracy [Re: Keith234]
      #18018 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:36 PM

Well it's only a wave , but we have some accurate predictions on location as of 8 pm Saturday. Quite a few of us are very close to the actual position. Remember the NHC said off the east coast.

As of 8pm, W Caribbean tropical wave...the remnants of T.D. Two...is along 82w S of 21n moving W 10-15 kt. Wave has weakened with a less pronounced wind shift than yesterday and an elongated appearance on satellite.

Actual 21.0, 82.0 approx.
Carl 21.3, 83.1
TG 22.0,81.0
Steve 22.5, 83.1
Myself 19.2, 81.2

Very Good Guys!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Accuracy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #18021 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:45 PM

Ed, I like your location of 18.2, 81.9 better, because that makes me the closest one as of 8 p.m.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Accuracy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #18029 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:44 PM

Actually, Steve's guess was 19.2N 82.3W (I think that you were looking at his 94 hour forecast position) - which was mighty close. My earlier coordinates were at 01Z, so at 00Z the location was probably more like 18.2N 81.7W.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Accuracy [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18040 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:38 AM

Do I win the beer? Heh. It was pretty obvious all along that the NHC was out to lunch with their forecast. The storm was to be near Jamaica by Saturday and into the SE Gulf on Monday. I like my 25mph winds for now and a 40 for Monday. Let me say this - the IR presentation (dubious I know) is as good as it has been since its classified days. Water of LA (according to the maximum potential site) puts an 870mb low potential just off the LA coast. Had we had those conditions for Lili, wow - BOOM. But anyway, Bastardi brought up an interesting point today. He noted that Alex wasn't even progged from 5 days out by the NHC and that we will likely be in that ballgame several more times this year where something run-of-the-mill turns out to be really intense overnight and by landfall (by that I mean strong development very near the coast rather than away from it). Could be crucial down later in the season when we've got a "disorganized wave" suddenly announced as a developing tropical system with some small potential and finally - oh btw, this is a Cat 3.

HF owes me a brew.

Steve


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Accuracy [Re: Anonymous]
      #18108 - Sun Aug 08 2004 08:39 PM

According to Ed, the 8 pm position was more like 18.2, 81.7. So, my 19.2, 81.2 beats Steve's 19.2, 82.3 by 0.1 degree. Therefore, HF owes me the beer.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Accuracy [Re: Anonymous]
      #18120 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:56 PM

Well, it turns out that I made a small error when I computed the 08/00Z position. When I extrapolated the position I was using a forward speed of 10 knots, but it was actually 10mph at the time. This means that the longitude was actually 81.75W at 00Z, so based on composite error, it was a tie - which means that HF has to cough up two beers (I like that solution). Of course the real tie-breaker is the 10/00Z position - and I think that everybody will miss that one. I figure that the 10/00Z position will be somewhere around 23.5N 89.1W - good luck!
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18209 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:01 AM

Think we need to restart the challenge...this time...how bout for landfall and intensity...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18321 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:56 PM

Eh, I can't be touched. I had this bish progged from 8 days out as an Eastern Gulf threat even though I second-guessed myself over the weekend. But it'll make landfall around Pensacola as a 70mph T.S. on Thursday night (Or at least that's the call).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Steve]
      #18328 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:07 PM

Posted this on Wednesday, August 4th. Why not?

Will go with the speed demon theory...misses the trof...survives the graveyard...gets into the GOM. Then heads straight for Rickonboat as a CAT V.

I got everything right (with the exception of the speed demon theory), and you know rick wants it!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18411 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:38 PM

Cat 1 Pensacola FL




http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18412 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:42 PM

Bonnie will sit in the GOM and blow up. She will keep everyone on pins and needles til Friday, then she will be at Cat 1 or 2 and go in at the big bend area circa Josephine. But, not before putting every single coastal town on hurricane watch or warning for at least an hour or more each region.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18433 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:52 PM

I will go with my thinking that the trough to turn Bonnie will not be as quick and Bonie will actually end up further west. I am going to say between Mobile and Biloxi as a cat 2.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Rasvar]
      #18437 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:00 PM

mouse went out earlier, but hadn't checked the forum for a couple days anyway. geez, picking up quite a beer tab doing this stuff... hope you guys are talking about cheap macrobrew and none of the specials on tap... eh anyway.
quite a botch on my track idea.. joepub carl and steve got the best overall in terms of track. not bad on intensity either.
landfall forecast is the remaining challenge. if you've already posted, come back and add in the extra information:
1) landfall site
2) landfall time (local or zulu)
3) intensity (kt/mb)
for me i'm going to prelim it to:
mexico beach, florida, 06Z august 13th, 95kt/972mb
HF 0300z10august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18440 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:13 PM

Ok in the format requested:
Miss/Al border 00Z August 13 90Kt/970mb

Fixed pressure.

Edited by Rasvar (Mon Aug 09 2004 11:16 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Rasvar]
      #18448 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:33 PM

Gulf Shores,Al early Fri A.M. 85.7mph

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
common sense to all you nobodies out there [Re: Anonymous]
      #18450 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:40 PM

don't bother posting on a challenge as anonymous. it really defeats the purpose of the whole thing. identify yourself in some way. i can listen to the voices in my head if i want random thoughts from no one.
HF 0340z10august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: common sense to all you nobodies out there [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18461 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:43 AM

LOL Hank Frank...Heres my guess, Between Mobile and Destin (Does this count or do I have to be more specific?), Thursday Mid-day, 80kts, 980mb.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18464 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:51 AM

I'll give this a shot, on nothing more than a hunch.

Landfall location: Laguna Beach, FL (a bit NW of Panama City Beach)
Landfall time: 1pm CT Thurs. 8/12
Intensity: 75kt/984mb

I'd also not like to rule out a potential 'brush' of the Louisiana islands, but I don't think the center will pass over land there, especially considering the relative size of the storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RoyGBiv
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Clark]
      #18507 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:03 AM

1. Steinhatchee, FL (nearly indiscernible c.o.c.)
2. 0900Z, FRI
3. 60kt/998


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: RoyGBiv]
      #18530 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:43 AM

1. Mobile (actually Mobile Bay)
2. 1200Z Friday
3. 160kts/895mb

NO NO NO...this is serious...sorry rickonboat

here's the real guess

1. PCB (sorry andy1, coop & JK)
2. 1400Z Fri
3. 88 kts/980mb

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18553 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:27 AM

Ill add the place and time. It will make news in the bigbend area going ashore as a CAT 1 around the Swanee River, I believe the name of the area is between Cross City and Perry Florida but for the life of me I can't recall the name of the town on 98 that we always go through and Sing the Swanee River song. She will creep in about 4am on Saturday morning officially. Her winds will be clocked at 60 gusting to 75.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 960
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18563 - Tue Aug 10 2004 10:40 AM

Steihhatchee-Cedar Key good guesses...thursday...Cat I

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18605 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:17 PM

GuppieGrouper - that's near a city called Old Town. I think it's a little past Cross City, actually, as the only thing between there and Perry is the Steinhatchee area...but that's off the road a bit.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Final results [Re: HanKFranK]
      #20261 - Sun Aug 15 2004 03:36 AM

Well, officially, Bonnie made landfall at St. Marks, FL at about 18Z Thursday with winds of 35kt. I'm using the strictest definition of landfall and the NHC track, as the storm never really made landfall at Apalachicola or St. George Island (also when winds were 45kt/50mph).

Thus, while none of us did very well, the later posts calling for a more eastward landfall were fairly well, and my landflal time of about 18Z on Thursday was spot-on. Too bad my intensity and location were well off! As you all may recall from my posts in the various Bonnie news threads over the past few days, I ended up heading to St. George Island after sticking to my guns with Laguna Beach through part of the day on Wednesday...and still ended up missing the center.

Thankfully, Bonnie was not a storm to be reckoned with - but did show us all how fickle small storms like that can be, despite the best efforts forecasting. Drop over to the Earl thread if you all get a chance and throw in a forecast/prediction there...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is enabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 23282

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center