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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC.
      #74964 - Fri May 25 2007 02:59 AM

Data obtained throughout the past several months indicates that 2007 Atlantic Basin hurricane activity will be somewhat above the long-term average, with an estimated 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. An abnormally high number of tropical cyclones will form east of the Lesser Antilles during the bimonthly period of August and September, with at least one significant hurricane striking the northeast Caribbean. The Yucatán Peninsula also faces a high risk of a major hurricane strike during the final third of the season. No tropical cyclone landfalls are expected along the United States mainland.


More Here


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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74966 - Fri May 25 2007 11:10 AM

An interesting topic for sure. It does seem that IWIC seems to make a lot of excuses for errors in their forecasting though. For instance, they claimed that they would have been almost right on if it weren't for unexpected El Nino conditions in the late 2006 season. Also, that they would have adjusted their numbers down if they had forecasted those conditions correctly. What agency wouldn't have? Isn't the unexpected one of the inherent difficulties in predicting numbers and landfalls in the long term? It's exciting to continue research in this field and I'm glad they're taking an active role, but I think there's a long way to go still before we have reliable and accurate long term forecasting.

--------------------
"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."

2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: audienceofone]
      #74968 - Fri May 25 2007 11:26 AM

I view preseason forecasts along the same lines as fortune telling: ie, entertainment. Historically, preseason, and even early intraseason forecasts do not verify all that well. Even worse are forecasts for landfalls so far in advance. That just seems to be getting into the realm of Las Vegas-land

Any way the cards really play out, I suspect that it's always better to bet on every season having an Ace up it's sleeve... and buy the Insurance!


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74969 - Fri May 25 2007 11:36 AM

Not only is it virtually impossible to make such an assertion, it is begging for tons of grief when you are wrong. Some may say it takes guts to make a prediction of no landfalling US hurricanes, but with recent trends (2006 notwithstanding) I would have to take a critical look at what data they are basing this on. So far, they are the ONLY ones saying no US landfalls. Could be a case of them hoping that on the off chance they are right, they will be the ONLY ones right. What do you think?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74970 - Fri May 25 2007 11:52 AM

I agree. I think they have a lot to gain by being the only ones right about it, but anyone who knows anything about hurricanes knows more than to put a dollar on this long shot. Let's just hope that nobody takes their word for it and puts themselves in danger.

--------------------
"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."

2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: audienceofone]
      #74972 - Fri May 25 2007 12:01 PM

The best thing to do if you live along the U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts is to prepare for the worst (Joe Bastardi's predictions becoming reality) and hope for the best (the IWIC scenario).



Edited by saluki (Fri May 25 2007 12:03 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: saluki]
      #74973 - Fri May 25 2007 05:03 PM

I think that even trying to predict 7 days out is tricky, and two weeks is pretty dicey, much less months in advance. Yes, you can see trends that will contribute to the situation and correlate them with past seasons, but heck, look at two weeks in advance in the 2004 season -- no one could or did predict we'd get slammed as hard as we did here in FL. And it got to the point where we (at least here in Charlotte county) finally gave up and just kept our hurricane shutters/plywood up for several WEEKS until it looked like the season had finally calmed down for sure.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: madmumbler]
      #74975 - Sat May 26 2007 01:18 AM

Totally agree with you madmumbler. Last year, no hurricanes made US landfall was great and welcoming for everyone but keep in mind, the year before in '05, no one saw what eventually happened(The Worst Hurricane Season Ever). Anything can happen during a Hurricane season. Last year was a good ex. also. No one saw an El-Nino coming and we ended up having a quiet season. So, what about this year? Will we have a year with no US landfalling hurricanes like IWIC is saying? Don't bet your money on it! Best thing to do is to be prepared and be ready for anything.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2007: 16/8/4

Kirk J.

Edited by Bee-Beep (Sat May 26 2007 01:20 AM)


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Kevin_taketwo
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Bee-Beep]
      #74976 - Sat May 26 2007 02:27 AM

Just so you know...same Kevin, new sn.

My biggest problem? Association is not causation, especially when you have something as varaible as the atmosphere. We're probably several decades away (at least) from being able to accurately predict landfalls several months in advance of the season.

I appreciate the research that they did. This stuff is better than weather weenie crap, but several cuts below pure science. It would very hard to verify a forecast like this...it isn't quantified enough.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Kevin_taketwo]
      #74978 - Sat May 26 2007 09:32 AM

Quote:

Just so you know...same Kevin, new sn.

My biggest problem? Association is not causation, especially when you have something as varaible as the atmosphere. We're probably several decades away (at least) from being able to accurately predict landfalls several months in advance of the season.





I don't think we'll ever be at that point, simply because weather trends can change so rapidly.

Prime example -- Wilma. Now, I had a gut feeling about her that sent me to Wallyworld a full week before she made it up here. But it was just that, a gut feeling, and remember how she kept stalling and stalling and took forever to get up here?

I think the technology will get to a point that they will be reasonably able to come close a month or so in advance, at least on guessing trends that will steer storms to or away from land. But I don't think, because of the very nature of Nature, they will ever be able to "predict" with certainty any more than a week or so in advance.

Charley is another good example. When I went to bed Thursday night (exhausted from spending all day boarding up the house and preparing) he was supposed to slam my parents and grandparents up in Tampa. And by noon Friday it was obvious that wasn't what was happening. They didn't take the small size of the storm into consideration and the effect of the warm Charlotte Harbor waters on steering it into land. Had he been futher out in the GOM, most likely he would have gone up Tampa Bay.

I think the technology will get better, yes, More accurate, yes. But I think the accuracy will come more in terms of analyzing trends and seeing what contributes to storm paths and also predicting intensity through new satellite technology. But I don't think they will ever be able to completely predict how many will make landfall and exactly where.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Sat May 26 2007 09:37 AM)


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74984 - Sat May 26 2007 12:29 PM

IWIC 2007 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST

Rebuttal to the Negativity

</snip> ...Third, the credentials of the authors have been questioned. Before I elaborate, it should be made clear that IWIC has never claimed to be an official source of weather information, and disclaimers have always been posted within every forecast. With that said, the authors are undergraduate students in the field of meteorology. Nevertheless, one should gauge the validity of the seasonal forecast based on the reasoning that that has been presented. The methodology has been perfectly laid out for all to see. </snip>

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74986 - Sat May 26 2007 12:43 PM

We have not had a season with no classified tropical cyclones (TD or higher) making landfall in the US since 1962, when Alma came the closest (rode the SE Florida coast as a TD and nicked the Outer Banks as a hurricane). One or two of the years since then have just had a weak TS or TD making landfall, but those were the exception rather than the norm. Go back before 1960 and much of the tropical cyclone record comes in terms of landfall storms, meaning it's not likely that there are many more years like 1962 out there.

If it verifies, they look great. Based on sheer statistics, however, coupled with predictions for an active season, it's not likely at all. Springtime weather patterns, which they use as their primary guidelines toward determining where storms will go, can and do change into the summer. Sure, there may be some correlation between the two that suggests a lessened threat -- if you want to go down that alley -- but to say that *no* storms will make landfall in the US? That's beyond extreme.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #74988 - Sat May 26 2007 01:04 PM

The season is early - lets not get too excited yet. For my comments on this topic see the latest Met Blog.

Lots of comments elsewhere on the difficulty of using this site. If Users would take just a few seconds to read the various Forum descriptions before they post, the job of Moderation on this site would sure be a lot easier. This entire thread really should have been started in the Blogger Discussion Forum.
ED


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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75037 - Tue May 29 2007 11:49 AM

I originally would have sent this as a PM, but given the discussion/questions in another thread about site moderation, I thought maybe others would have this same question. If we are actively trying to get better about putting our comments in the right place, maybe this will be a learning experience for more than just me. =) I just want to know why discussion of a forecast for zero U.S. landfalls would be placed anywhere other than the forecast lounge. It seemed like a logical choice to me, but again, I would like to learn how to do it right the next time. Could you elaborate Ed?

--------------------
"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."

2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: audienceofone]
      #75054 - Wed May 30 2007 09:54 AM

A fair question - I'll attempt to clarify. The description of the Forecast Lounge is as follows:

2007 Forecast Lounge
Have a forecast for a storm or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling" or a long-range model projection. Unofficial best guesses as well as forecasting contests can go here. Not as strictly moderated.

The intent was that the Forecast Lounge would be a place for 'unofficial best guesses' associated with a currently existing storm or disturbance, i.e., something that is well organized, rather than a seasonal perspective. (Note that since folks are inclined to comment anyway on every little wave that is out there, The Tropics Today Forum was started to get that stuff off of the Main Page.)

Even the Storm Forum would have been a better choice since that forum does cover 'predictions for the season', however note the description for the Blogger Discussion Forum:

Blogger Discussion
Have a question about a blogger article, want to say thanks or criticize something or point out something interesting? This is the place. For all blogs, on or off this site.

Since this material was extracted from another weather blog site, I would have opted for the Blogger Discussion Forum for this thread (but the Storm Forum would have also been an acceptable choice).

Here is another point of interest: An Atlantic Basin exception is made in the Storm Forum whenever an EastPac tropical storm or hurricane might threaten the Hawaiian Islands (i.e., the CPHC in Honolulu starts a new central Pacific system or picks up responsibility for the storm from NHC and the storm poses a threat to the islands). Usually when that happens, I or another Mod will start a thread on that system in the Storm Forum - or sometimes on the Main Page if nothing else of any consequence is going on in the Atlantic Basin.

We have tried to remove ambiguity from the Forum Descriptions, but sometimes things are not always that clear and a post gets placed (by you OR us) in the wrong place. If we decide to move something to another Forum, please don't get upset - the real purpose is to align posts by subject matter so that Users can go to their particular forum of interest and not encounter off-topic material.

Hope all of this has helped, and PM me or any other site official if you should need any additional clarifications.
ED


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75094 - Wed May 30 2007 10:33 PM

yyyyeah. i couldn't really elaborate on my opinions about this ... um... theory IWIC has beyond what some of the other guys on here have said, except maybe to add a 'hahahHA' and maybe follow that up with an extended 'HAHAHAHAha'. an above average season with no US landfalls has no precedent. i'd almost sooner expect my dog to give me a dissertation on 19th century russian literature. dostoevsky and tolstoy, arf.
HF 0332z31may


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #75333 - Sat Jun 02 2007 10:40 AM

Looks like the second storm and the second day of the season have put pay to the predicitons made by IWIC regarding no landfalling US mainland systems... sorry guys!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Rich B]
      #75349 - Sat Jun 02 2007 01:22 PM

Quote:

Looks like the second storm and the second day of the season have put pay to the predicitons made by IWIC regarding no landfalling US mainland systems... sorry guys!



There is some manner of poetic justice in this. I know there is! Its almost as if god was calling them stupid for predicting an above-average season with no landfalls on the American coast.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Rich B]
      #75377 - Sun Jun 03 2007 02:15 PM

Quote:

Looks like the second storm and the second day of the season have put pay to the predicitons made by IWIC regarding no landfalling US mainland systems... sorry guys!




Um, they meant BIG storms...yeah, that's it...REALLY big storms....Tropical storms don't count...yeah, that's the ticket....

*giggle* *snort!*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75393 - Mon Jun 04 2007 10:54 PM

Okay - enough already - I think that they have suffered enough. They stuck their neck out and lost - seems to me that I've done that myself a time or two. Its more important to learn something from your busted forecasts.
ED


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: No U.S. Landfalls this season According to IWIC. [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75399 - Tue Jun 05 2007 01:11 PM

Sorry chief.

Are the models showing anything coming up we should keep an eye on? That's not too shabby that the models picked up on Barry forming (or at least the low that became Barry).

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Tue Jun 05 2007 01:11 PM)


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