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Archives 2000s >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78445 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:44 PM

The 7 news station here in Miami said that the shear is going to cause the storm to go to a TS and then downgrade to a depression. I am not sure here, but there are some models that predict this storm as a slow moving storm and predict that it is going to reach Cat 2 here in Miami. Is this the case?

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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78447 - Fri Sep 14 2007 12:16 AM

It is wayyyy to early to predict where and how strong Ingrid can or will be. Look at the cone on the forecasts. See how it expands outward per day? This is the margin of error. In the case of Ingrid if you extend that margin of error, time wise, it could be anywhere in the eastern seaboard. At this point if anyone tells you where this storm is going to hit and how strong it is going to be, They should be flogged. Look at what just happened this morning. How many meterologists thought that Humberto would be a cat 1 at landfall? None... If they would have thought it would have been, you would have seen evacuations, warnings and Jim Cantori over dramatising it on the Weather Channel. Instead they sent Mike Siedel. Why???? Because they thought it was going to be a minimal TS and not news worthy. So once again, NO ONE knows where this storm is going to be in 9 days. Best thing for you to do, if you are that worried now, is be prepared. Get your hurricane supplies now. Food, water, medication for at least 3 days. A few hundred in cash, just incase you have to evacuate doesn't hurt either. During hurricane season you should always be prepared (see Humberto).

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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: M.A.]
      #78448 - Fri Sep 14 2007 12:18 AM

One more thing. The slower a storm moves, the harder it is to forecast.
Sorry about the one liner.


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78449 - Fri Sep 14 2007 12:51 AM

Quote:

The 7 news station here in Miami said that the shear is going to cause the storm to go to a TS and then downgrade to a depression. I am not sure here, but there are some models that predict this storm as a slow moving storm and predict that it is going to reach Cat 2 here in Miami. Is this the case?




Ingrid is projected by the NHC to be five days away from being in the vicinity of the Leewards, which means it would be another 4-5 days away from Miami. The models are notoriously inaccurate that far out. In the meantime, Ingrid will have a brutal amount of shear to contend with, and may lose that battle. Still, I agree with what another poster wrote on the main thread: Ingrid's worth keeping an eye on -- at least until we see how it contends with the shear and the upper-level low this weekend and beyond.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: saluki]
      #78464 - Fri Sep 14 2007 11:12 PM

Ingrid is going to die in the maritime-a fish spinner. JMHO, but I believe this storm will dissipate before next Thursday. Shear is ripping it apart and there's several centers and convection is getting very elongated away from either of them and I think NHC is being generous by keeping it a TS right now-the T-numbers are borderline on it now. I would keep an eye towards 12N33W west right now and forget Ingrid.

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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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