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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #83459 - Sat Aug 30 2008 04:26 PM

Hi all - Gustav has enveloped the Keys finally a few hours ago after a few teases yesterday. Power is still up, winds have not been bad and best of all, no leaks in my roof that "Fay" found!! We are in a bit of a rain break right now.

Gustav seems (from the vis sat view) to continue just to the right of NHC guidance.

- greetings from Key Colony Beach - Rod


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RU12
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: 30.39N 88.82W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: Unregistered User]
      #83460 - Sat Aug 30 2008 04:32 PM

The latest model runs on Skeetobite have the skinny line back on New Orleans except for the GFDL. However, the GFDL is 6 hours older than the other models. Based on the later model runs and what I'm seeing on the loops, I would expect the track to be shifted back to the east to New Orleans or even to the MS-LA line at 5pm. This storm is large enough that the skinny line isn't going to matter too terribly much when this thing comes ashore.

Edited by RU12 (Sat Aug 30 2008 04:33 PM)


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gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: 30.29N 85.64W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: RU12]
      #83461 - Sat Aug 30 2008 04:51 PM

last night, there was a more of a NNW movement, the track didnt change? now as of 342 CDT it seems to have another NNW track again, maybe a wobble? but if the "wobble" continues for more than say an hour, when does it not become a wobble and become a shift? seems like all the tracking has a fettish for LA? im becoming less confident with all the models. on the IR i just dont see the high over the eastern GOM ? maybe its there, but its not affecting the feeder bands? im starting to think gustav could take a 90 degree turn to the east and NHC and all the other tracks would go into LA. not saying it is just a metaphore. anyone...... input???

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: gatorman]
      #83463 - Sat Aug 30 2008 05:08 PM

Quote:

last night, there was a more of a NNW movement, the track didnt change? now as of 342 CDT it seems to have another NNW track again, maybe a wobble? but if the "wobble" continues for more than say an hour, when does it not become a wobble and become a shift? seems like all the tracking has a fettish for LA? im becoming less confident with all the models. on the IR i just dont see the high over the eastern GOM ? maybe its there, but its not affecting the feeder bands? im starting to think gustav could take a 90 degree turn to the east and NHC and all the other tracks would go into LA. not saying it is just a metaphore. anyone...... input???




While there has definitely been a bias in the track a little to the right, IMHO, a major turn is unlikely in a system moving this fast. The NHC really seems to do well once these systems get above 20 north and over 10knots forward speed. The ones that stall are the real nightmares. I think I know what you may be feeling. I tend to see a bulleye on my house when a system is to my south. Perhaps you feel a bulleye on your back as well. Again, IMHO, I think that is a healthy way to deal with these major hurricanes. - best wishes to all on the Gulf coast. - get prepared.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: docrod]
      #83487 - Sat Aug 30 2008 06:48 PM

On a different weather board, I read the following comments about reduced intensity of gulf storms being steered by a trough at landfall. Could some of the well-respected mets here comment on this discussion?

Quote:

I have a feeling we aren't going to see significant weakening [of Gustav] like we do with most Gulf landfalls. My reasoning (and there's no real science behind it) is this....Typically we see these storms recurving and heading east right before or during landfall. The mechanism that causes this would be a trough picking it up and dragging it out. A trough usually associates shear, drier air, cooler air. Thus weakening the storm.

In this scenario the steering current are dictated from a ridge at landfall, not a trough. Just from logic I'd think the shear, drier air that is normally associated with the landfall will not be there. Thus I don't really feel significant weakening at landfall. The only saving grace might be its forward speed. If it does come to a crawl before landfall, it would weaken from land interaction. But it the stall doesn't occur until its 30-50 miles inland we could be looking at one of the most impressive landfalls we have seen in a long long time.




I would assume that this person was ignoring differences in SSTs or the luck of timing of ERCs, (both of which seem to have been culprits in reducing the strength of big storms in recent memory). But I wanted to ask for a more informed opinion.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: cjzydeco]
      #83499 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:28 PM

Gus has been running just east of the NHC line, this might be a result of his impressive spin up or a weakness in the high to the north... or most likely a combination of both. Looking over the water vapor loop I see the front in the eastern US is sliding out of the way which would allow Gus to continue this NNW motion, but the next front coming across the central US doesn't seem very strong (or very deep) so he can curve back west easily. This would explain the NHC straight-as-an-arrow forecast... there is nothing major that would greatly influence Gustav's movement in the GOM so its steady on the course for the next few days.

I still feel the storm will make landfall closer to the LA/TX border late Monday/early Tues AM, as the only weakness in the atmosphere seems to be over TX right now. Unfortunately this turn to the west will only make the surge worst as more of Gustavs's winds push up against LA. This puts New Orleans on the "dirty" side of the storm which would be very bad for them, even worst then last time I fear However based on all the news reports it looks like everyone learned their lesson and are getting out of harms way.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Panhandle1
Unregistered




Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #83512 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:42 PM

In the last 21 hours Hurricane Gustav has been going 3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West (I took the last 7 reporting periods, which equals 21 hours). For example: 11:00 p.m. coordinates were: 23.1 North & 83.8 West and subtracting the 8 p.m. coordinates of 22.7 N and 83.4 W which equals to .4 change for the North and West direction--but I did this for 21 hours and came up with the slight more Northerly direction--3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West, which would account for the North 'Jog'--I think.

The 1995 Storm, Opal, was my wake-up call to a storm heading to New Orleans and then changed directions before landfall in my area (Navarre/Destin/Niceville FL).

I always try to follow "Hughes" postings since he lives in my town.


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: Panhandle1]
      #83517 - Sun Aug 31 2008 12:37 AM

Quote:

In the last 21 hours Hurricane Gustav has been going 3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West (I took the last 7 reporting periods, which equals 21 hours). For example: 11:00 p.m. coordinates were: 23.1 North & 83.8 West and subtracting the 8 p.m. coordinates of 22.7 N and 83.4 W which equals to .4 change for the North and West direction--but I did this for 21 hours and came up with the slight more Northerly direction--3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West, which would account for the North 'Jog'--I think.

The 1995 Storm, Opal, was my wake-up call to a storm heading to New Orleans and then changed directions before landfall in my area (Navarre/Destin/Niceville FL).

I always try to follow "Hughes" postings since he lives in my town.




Yes - I agree - Gustav is moving slightly north of NW and has been just to the right of guidance for some time now. Gustav did some major wobbles prior to it's Cuban landfall but overall the track is still holding. Forward speed is also slowly picking up as well.

So far here in the middle Keys, Gustav has been rather wet. I have a street flooded with fresh water (far better than salt water I assure you). Sombrero light is reporting winds approaching 50 knots sustained. Power is still on throughout the Keys as far as I know (I'm in contact with someone on Little Torch- Lower Keys).

I am in between rain bands right now and saw a few stars in the star recently amongst lightening flashes.

- take care - Rod


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MoodyChem
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Moody, Alabama, USA 33.59N 86.50W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: docrod]
      #83521 - Sun Aug 31 2008 01:37 AM

I've been following storms for years, but after the last few storms I wonder about posting these tracks for the general public. They only see the "line", but don't understand the error inherent. Especially 24-48 hours out, like we are now - Gustav could go anywhere from the Florabama Lounge to halfway down Texas - but on the news I see NOLA getting ready, AL to evacuate Fort Morgan in the morning, but not much else. I think people trust the HPC so much that they believe the current line is exactly where he will go. Should the public see this or should we broadcast cones only - big, wide cones ?

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: docrod]
      #83531 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:39 AM

Plotting coordinates from the images this morning against the expected track coordinates, it appears that Gus is still tracking more northerly than than forecast. If this trend continues it would not be surprising to see the 11 am EDT update come with another nudge of the track to the east. It wouldn't take much to put it between Grand Isle and the MRGO -- which would be about as bad for NOLA as it could get.

The forecast track from its present position towards landfall is very similar to Betsy in 1965, which led to the Corps of Engineers Hurricane Protection Program.


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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: EBinTX]
      #83547 - Sun Aug 31 2008 01:34 PM

Maybe a met can confirm this but it looks as though Gustav is undergoing his first and maybe last opportunity at intenstification since leaving Cuba, according to the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map.





He looks to be going through the warmest waters since being in the Gulf and is looking a little more healthy on the most recent sat image.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: xxflcyclonexx]
      #83548 - Sun Aug 31 2008 01:50 PM

It looks like it maybe doing so now.There is a flare up right at the center.Overnight will be critical.The path looks like a worse case scenario,as the center looks to be headed just to the west of NO.

2PM Update has winds down to 115mph,but more importantly pressure is down 2MB.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 31 2008 02:09 PM)


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83554 - Sun Aug 31 2008 02:49 PM

Shortwave IR and VIS sat shows Gustav continuing to maintain organization, although obviously lacking convection to the NE. I believe this will persist as Gustav moves toward LA, and high pressure holds over eastern US. As time goes on, chances of Gustav recovering to cat 4 strength seem to lessen, although next 12-18 hours will tell the tale. Apart from winds, heavy rainfall is the bigger long-term threat over much of LA and vicinity (see link). 5-day precip forecast

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #83561 - Sun Aug 31 2008 03:23 PM

Gus has really picked up the pace, he is out running the stronger storms and leaving them behind (to the south), thus they are not wrapping around the core/eye. This quicker motion is keeping him on more northerly path as the high above him has weaken and moved off to the east. It now appears that this high is not filling in fast enough to slow him down until well after landfall. The NHC line looks to be right on target and his current forward speed points to midday Monday landfall as a Cat 3. I believe he is simply moving too fast to gain strength regardless of sea temps. I'm just glad to see the streets of New Orleans are mostly empty, since the city will be on the "dirty" side of the storm this is shaping up to be a real mess

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #83562 - Sun Aug 31 2008 03:28 PM

I don't see many signs on the AVN or visible loops that Gustav is intensifying. In fact, it appears that the weakening trend is continuing at a slow pace, and dry air is filtering in along the NE side. The track does look accurate, although at times my eyes trick me into thinking it is moving east of the track.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #83567 - Sun Aug 31 2008 04:12 PM

The vis sat images also show Gus regaining organization, and the IR appears as though convection is becoming more uniform than it has been over the past twelve hours. It looks like a nice eye will reform over the next 3-6 hours. Might the better and more uniform convection be an indication of diminishing shear, and point to likely intensity increase over the next six+ hours?

The westerly component of the track sees to have caught up with the northerly, and I agree it looks like it will join and move right on the forecast track beginning at about 01/00 hrs UTC.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: EBinTX]
      #83575 - Sun Aug 31 2008 05:42 PM

The forecast discussion states that the models and the current track have been shifted to the West some, but still remain on the East side of the prediction envelope so more western shift could happen in the next 12-24 hours as needed. Severall more models are starting to shift that direction too.

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: hogrunr]
      #83637 - Mon Sep 01 2008 09:17 AM

It looks like Beaumont was smart for evacuating...Gustav has moved west of the projected landfall, since it made it past the lowest point of coastline for LA, it is hugging the coast, but not coming on shore...looks like it's going to be near the LA/TX border now.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Gustav Lounge [Re: hogrunr]
      #83706 - Mon Sep 01 2008 05:27 PM

Got to give the NHC an "A" on the Gustav, they had the landfall & strength pinned down almost five days in advance. It went a touch west and lost alot of energy right before coming onshore. I'd say it was a Cat 2 a good 6 hours before the NHC called it, but I'm sure they didn't want anyone to take it lightly, so kept the Cat 3 status up.

Glad to see only minor over topping of the levees (so far) as the surge is already starting to pull back. The damage will be most to the barrier islands and the outer marshes where the population is fairly low anyway. Still watching the news for major damage/flooding reports, but so far it looks like the typical hurricane type stuff: power out, some roofs damaged, minor flooding, etc.

Now we've got Hanna, Ike and few other swirls out there to watch

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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