Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)
Lklnd_Wtchr
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: craigm]
      #83053 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:36 PM

I was looking at ths same thing with New Orleans. Since I have been living in Florida, I would never wish a Hurricane on anyone else but neither do I want it.

I was wondering does anyone have any information on the other 2 medium potential storms that the NHC is showing. I was wondering what you all thought the probability of them forming into more of a Hurricane status would be.

Starting to remind me of 2004 when we had so many storms come up.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
parrish123
Unregistered




Re: Storm structure [Re: Unregistered User]
      #83054 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:56 PM


THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
drd675
Unregistered




Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: LoisCane]
      #83055 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:07 AM

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: drd675]
      #83056 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:23 AM

OK,i'll say it.Going by the NHC forecast this COULD be worse than Katrina for New Orleans.I know the mods will jump down my throat for this,but most of us are thinking the same thing.I am going by the NHC forecast.God help them there.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Storm structure [Re: drd675]
      #83057 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:23 AM

Re: hwood

Gustav is a small, compact system. The central core may expand a little due to the interaction with Haiti, but once clear of that influence, should tighten up and intensify rapidly again. Small storms like this seem to be more sensitive to nuances in the steering currents than larger storms (re: Charley) and tend to be more variable in intensity - they "pulse." Gustav is going to be very interesting to watch over the next few days and will, I believe, be a very dangerous storm.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6

Edited by MichaelA (Wed Aug 27 2008 12:25 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: LoisCane]
      #83058 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:23 AM

Just a note, I"m not trusting any of the models until it gets past Cuba. I truly do not think New Orleans will happen this time, maybe much further west/south than currently suggested by the models based on trends (maybe closer to the Yucatan).

However that's all lounge. Again, I'm waiting until it passes Cuba a bit before I would bet on it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MikeC]
      #83059 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:29 AM

I'm just watching to see how the high plays out over time and where that trough is going over Texas/western GOM goes. That SWesterly flow over the GOM still concerns me. Gustav's small size will make it more susceptible to larger scale patterns than it would if it were a much larger system.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MikeC]
      #83060 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:32 AM

GFS now consistant on a eastern gulf-florida thing, interesting but like Mike has said, lets not trust 1 model. I feel the next 24hrs will be important for a few reasons. 1, the direction Gustav is going. Will it be W, WSW, or even WNW still like the GFS says.2, over the next 24 hrs which model stays consistant and how much do the rest change? 3, how much land interaction with then Cuba comes into play. Lets all just watch it for the next 24hrs. There is no reason to guess who in the gulf will be affected and how strong it gets.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
parrish123
Unregistered




Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MichaelA]
      #83061 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:34 AM

The 0Z GFS has the upper system centered up at 40/62 (the big one at 500MB ) getting south enough...erroding the backside of the 588 high over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

This pops down the mid/upper high enough to release Gustav into the eastern Bahamas....then the ridge builds back to the east...trapping Gustav on a WNW track through the keys and into the SE Gulf.

I think...think this is a result of the GFS finally getting a handle on the initial intensity of Gustav (way too shallow before). I would initially write it off as a "bad run"...but if the other models start calling for an erosion of the EASTERN part of the high almost right away...then we could see some of the largest forecast errors in the last decade.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83063 - Wed Aug 27 2008 12:39 AM

Yes, anything is possible and many people are thinking along the lines you are but keep in mind...it really is way too early to attempt to place a landfall in any one area along the Gulf Coast. The forecast track and the "cone" will most likely change back and forth.....this is not set in stone yet...not even to mention modeling...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 27 2008 12:44 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #83065 - Wed Aug 27 2008 02:14 AM

whats the deal with the GFDL... does it have a thing for New Orleans?? like stewart posted... think it and a few others are too fast on there movement in the GOM.. noticed how the bams suite slowed down... the were the first to pick up the on fays eventual turn.... but way far off on location that it would happen... the trough coming through the central gulf coast seems to be the factor that will turn Gustav towards the coast... but timing and evloution on this.... is luck casting this far out... I do not like the look at the latest data on the loop current... where gustav is headed

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bjm519209
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83067 - Wed Aug 27 2008 02:28 AM

Quote:

whats the deal with the GFDL... does it have a thing for New Orleans?? like stewart posted... think it and a few others are too fast on there movement in the GOM.. noticed how the bams suite slowed down... the were the first to pick up the on fays eventual turn.... but way far off on location that it would happen... the trough coming through the central gulf coast seems to be the factor that will turn Gustav towards the coast... but timing and evloution on this.... is luck casting this far out... I do not like the look at the latest data on the loop current... where gustav is headed




I'm sorry i just like to read these things bu i was just wondering what coast are you mentioning here ? And is everyone starting to think this storm could come further to the east now. ? that seems to be what i am reading. Sorry i don't have alot of knowledge about this. like i said i just like to read and pick up what i can.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lsugal
Unregistered




Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MikeC]
      #83075 - Wed Aug 27 2008 08:20 AM

Mike- Im so glad that you feel like New Orleans landfall is not going to happen! I live in Baton Rouge, La.
The cone of uncertainy will drive us all crazy over the next few days!

I do have a question- Our local mets here are saying that this is one of the smallest hurricanes they have seen so is there a chance that the storm could grow in size? if so what makes the storm grow?
Thanks and have a nice day!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: lsugal]
      #83076 - Wed Aug 27 2008 08:52 AM

Seems Gus is giving the NHC fits.Here we are at almost 9am.and he is still heading NW.Gus did not do what the NHC thought it would do,proving once again that these storms have a mind of their own.Given that it is STILL heading NW,all bets are off.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MichaelA]
      #83077 - Wed Aug 27 2008 08:54 AM

Quote:

I'm just watching to see how the high plays out over time and where that trough is going over Texas/western GOM goes. That SWesterly flow over the GOM still concerns me.




Me too! The flow over the Gulf sure makes it looks like any storm that tried to move north now would just be swept back to the EAST and wind up on the west coast of FL. However the models all seemed to point to LA (not good!!!) and have shifted back south to the gap between Cuba and Jamaica like before. Thus the current thinking is the high will fill-in over FL and block Gus, keeping him below Cuba till Saturday.

Gus slowed and weakened overnight... it looks like instead of pushing west he just hit the wall (at 20N) and stopped. Outflow is good on the southern half so if he gets away from the "wall" he should rebuild. Now as we saw with Fay stalling systems are bad news: lots of rain and the models have trouble coming to grips with systems that aren't moving along, the timing can be really thrown off making the future track very much in doubt. I still believe Gus has no choice but to move W, maybe even a little WSW like the UKMET shows, but he has to un-stick himself from the wall first.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83078 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:01 AM

Quote:

Seems Gus is giving the NHC fits.Here we are at almost 9am.and he is still heading NW.Gus did not do what the NHC thought it would do,proving once again that these storms have a mind of their own.Given that it is STILL heading NW,all bets are off.




It's not all that off really, probably the biggest thing will be how slowly or quickly the storm starts moving again. If it starts moving quickly the westward scenario is more likely, if it continues to be slow, more uncertainty and probably further east. The entire gulf needs to watch it right now, I'm not sold on the models at all right now.

Like Fay, wait until Saturday to get a better picture and avoid getting hyped up.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MikeC]
      #83079 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:09 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Seems Gus is giving the NHC fits.Here we are at almost 9am.and he is still heading NW.Gus did not do what the NHC thought it would do,proving once again that these storms have a mind of their own.Given that it is STILL heading NW,all bets are off.




It's not all that off really, probably the biggest thing will be how slowly or quickly the storm starts moving again. If it starts moving quickly the westward scenario is more likely, if it continues to be slow, more uncertainty and probably further east. The entire gulf needs to watch it right now, I'm not sold on the models at all right now.

Like Fay, wait until Saturday to get a better picture and avoid getting hyped up.




According to the NHC Gus was suppose to be south of Cuba by now.I am not completely sold on this being a GOM storm,although that is still the most likely scenario.Until and if it moves more west,all of Florida needs to keep an eye on him.This thing is STILL east of SE Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83080 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:17 AM

Quote:



According to the NHC Gus was suppose to be south of Cuba by now.I am not completely sold on this being a GOM storm,although that is still the most likely scenario.Until and if it moves more west,all of Florida needs to keep an eye on him.This thing is STILL east of SE Florida.




It's a gulf storm, just where in the Gulf, too much keeping it to the south, it'll trudge westward maybe, but I don't see how it could affect South Florida with the current setup, or even get north of Cuba.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: MikeC]
      #83081 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:33 AM

Quote:

Quote:



According to the NHC Gus was suppose to be south of Cuba by now.I am not completely sold on this being a GOM storm,although that is still the most likely scenario.Until and if it moves more west,all of Florida needs to keep an eye on him.This thing is STILL east of SE Florida.




It's a gulf storm, just where in the Gulf, too much keeping it to the south, it'll trudge westward maybe, but I don't see how it could affect South Florida with the current setup, or even get north of Cuba.




It is most likely a GOM storm,but I am not going to bet the farm on that yet.Simple for the fact that it has not turned west yet and is still well to the se of Florida.Look at the NHC's track yesterday,it should not be where it is now,and it should not still be heading NW.That ridge is not going to hold indefinitely.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: gustav looking strange on loops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83082 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:43 AM

2 of the models now bring it over the Florida keys:




--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 6 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 91852

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center