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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: LoisCane]
      #84108 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:31 AM

they projected a wsw movement in the forecast path then projected it to level out to the west then turn a bit. i have had goes e infared running for the past 24 hours. i see the slightest south movement. i dont see anything remarkable though. the 11am will help us.

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84113 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:54 AM

The 11 am is out...as suggested, Ike is moving south of the projected path at about 260 degrees. Also to be noted, although sheer is supposed to affect Ike for the next 24 hours, it should taper off after that. Also, on the path Ike is projected to take now, the Forecast Discussion from the NHC has stated specifically that the waters are warm and they do not see remnants of cooler water from Hanna being in the area previously.

I'm starting to think the ECMWF model that takes Ike into the same area as Gus is going to be the more accurate model.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84114 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:55 AM

the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84125 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:43 PM

Quote:

the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.




Less for you, more for the GOM.

A CAT 3 hitting Mobile to Panama would pull every power truck out of Louisiana.

And don't expect any help from anywhere else because of Hanna.

And Florida gets it's gas from NOLA.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 808
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84126 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:44 PM

I'm not relaxing a bit. Given the high degree of accuracy of the NHC's track forecasts over the last few years, everyone in FL should be watching Ike and be in pre-prep mode. The next few days will tell more definitely where and how strong Ike will be. Personally? I don't like what my gut is telling me on this one.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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okihabu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Spring Hill, Florida 28.41N 82.53W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MichaelA]
      #84130 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:00 PM

I hope you are right Mike, I am hoping for the best for our area. I have a poultry farm I own and movin all these animals wont be easy. I just would like to knoe the odds of Ike hittin the west coast of Fl. and the Tampa area? I can see what NHC says about the path. But my concern is how fast he moves west before going north. I dont see anything slowing him down.besides this year is starting to remind me of 2004. My sister-in-law is still po'd at me for Charley. Same name and on my birhtday, went to orlando and and well you know the rest. So I would like to know some odds on him.

--------------------
Chuck Good


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: okihabu]
      #84132 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:05 PM

Well...we've got a 2:00 update to the advisory:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008


AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN


We should now start getting 3 hourly fixes soon.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: native]
      #84137 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:15 PM

looking at the updated model runs from Skeetobiteweather, there is only one model that has Ike hitting the East side of Florida now...the consensus model is moving much more towards the Western GOM. I think there will be a fairly significant change in the NHC model at the 5pm EDT advisory.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: native]
      #84138 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:20 PM

I just dont see how this storm would even get to the middle of the gulf of mexico starting on the early parts of next week as a trough of low pressure is going to come from the west and ike is going to start to feel the weakening in the high pressure at about maybe 80 west or so ??? maybe it well make it into the gulf at about 83 west is the farthest i say but most of the models have a turn going on. i live in orlando wftv channel 9 meteorologist said its going to have to make a turn at some point but wasnt sure where it would happened I hate to say it but it definitely looks like a florida storm !

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84140 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:27 PM

Someone posted this link back on page 2 of this thread...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008090500!!/

That is the best way I have seen Ike's track explained so far. It really gives you a birds eye view of all of the different pressure centers and other activity that will be affecting Ike's track and why he will make it into the GOM.


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hurriance expert
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84143 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:50 PM

check out the latest GFDL model it has it more of a bend to the state of florida and as for the hwrf model its doing the same i'm not surprise to see this at all either like i said earlier.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hurriance expert]
      #84149 - Fri Sep 05 2008 03:07 PM

i still can not believe its still going west. they projected the south movement so much sooner then today. to be honest im not sure anymore on the path. i think the 5pm will help us out alot. i think we are having a hard time working with this storm simply because of the update schedule. shortly they should throw warnings up and which case that will help us as far as getting that update every 3 hours. right now its hard to tell though because we dont have much to work with. the storms moving so quickly and we dont have updates till every 6 hours on the clock. i just find it incredible that yesterday at 11am they had it nailing broward county and now they got it plowing over the keys.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84150 - Fri Sep 05 2008 03:10 PM

The latest GFS model also recurves the storm into florida by the time it gets into the gulf pretty scary stuff there !!!

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84157 - Fri Sep 05 2008 03:53 PM

has anyone else happen to notice the SFWMD has updated their plots and a lot of them have now made changes to the north? just earlier they were all agreeing for the most part on that southward track.

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84160 - Fri Sep 05 2008 04:53 PM

5pm is out....first recon info in, basically confirmed the projected strength, track is now at 255 degrees. NHC again shifted their track south and suggested further shifting south or west may be needed in the next day or so. There is still a clear split between those models who see a weakening in the ridge that would allow for the NNW turn just West of Florida, and those models that see the ridge holding stronger and forcing Ike to the West/Central GOM. We probably wont' know if the weakness will be there until Late Saturday or Early Sunday as Ike approaches the Turks and Caicos.

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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84161 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:16 PM

A question about the ridge steering Ike- when it turns to the North, is it likely to turn North *and* East, or simply trend NWish?
I really don't want to wishcast, but.... I really don't want to see the NOLA/S La. folks get another, worse hit (I have family in Baton Rouge).

--------------------
--
Chris Bryant
DeLand, Florida


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tracerrx
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84162 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:20 PM

This maybe a newbie question, so please forgive.

How long until the Recon that was collected today from the hurricane hunter aircraft, is incorporated into the models? From my understanding, historically, the accuracy of the models is greatly improved after this information has been obtained.


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: okihabu]
      #84163 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:32 PM

Question please - does any out there have a link for storm surge models for the Florida Keys? Right now it looks like a right front quad hit for me. My house (oceanside - Key Colony Beach mm 51) survived Donna (1960 - three feet underwater) and slightly flooded in Georges. I'm taking a break from prep which I will finish tomorrow.

I know I can't do much about a flooding surge but more or less curiosity. - thanks in advance.


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: tracerrx]
      #84164 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:37 PM

Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.

I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.

I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!)

Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: docrod]
      #84165 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:39 PM

Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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